Posted on 03/01/2023 5:59:02 PM PST by delta7
Ukraine is not going to become a NATO member. Even Zelensky admitted that to Russia.
“And no one believes they will be able to retrieve Crimea”.
There are a bunch of stupid anti American neocons on this site who disagree.
What about borders that were paid for in human blood?
When countries are being established by a political group, often assets such a manufacturing, agriculture, raw materials, etc. are considered and not the ethnic background of the residents. As I understand, the Dombas area of Ukraine is mostly Russian and that’s why they have been trying to separate from Ukraine and that is why the war from 2014 to present.
Mexican wat land for peace worked out really well for the USA.
“Borders didn’t protect the Donbass from Azov artillery for 8 years.”
Umm, there is no border between Donbas and Azov. What the hell are you talking about???
“They didn’t protect Libya from the NATO attack.”
Oh, so if a border is not impermeable, it is useless. That’s the exact same argument that Democrats used when Trump proposed building a wall, of course.
I would have to disagree.
Maybe you were opposed to our involvement in the Balkans, but involved we got anyway.
We bombed Libya in 2011 until we got our regime change and turned Libya into a failed state sprouting slave markets. It was a lot more than “a few cruise missiles”. As for “boots on the ground”, no there weren’t massed formations, but it’s an open secret British SAS led the rebel forces taking Tripoli. And of course there were some of our guys, too.
Syria was aimed at regime change. How did you miss that? We thought our pet terrorists would just do our bidding and overthrow Assad, but they turned into ISIS and other loathsome scary monsters. So it became terrorist hunting. And so it goes on ...
As for Ukraine, it started in earnest back in 2014, when we backed and financed a violent overthrow of its legitimately-elected government and installed our handpicked leaders. Look how that turned out. So-called “soft power” can result in bloodshed, too.
>>>Ref your “Ukraine is not going to become a NATO member. Even Zelensky admitted that to Russia.”<<<
Somebody forgot to tell Biden:
Date: December 9, 2021 10:19 PM EST
Headline: Biden assures Zelenskiy that NATO membership in Ukraine’s hands, Kyiv says
We were already treating Ukraine like a de facto junior member of NATO anyway, arming, equipping and training their military.
Back in 2014 around putsch time, there was loose talk from American lips about turning Sebastopol (then leased to Russia under agreement made at independence) into a NATO port. Oops! Putin grabbed it. So we built a naval base for NATO not far away (but not as cool as having Sevastopol would have been):
The hard reality today is that Ukraine will not recover all of the territory it has lost since 2015. At some stage, Ukraine will be forced to cede at least some territory to Russia. Moreover, if this war continues, Ukraine may well lose even more territory. Worst of all, vast numbers of Ukrainians will die, much of the Ukrainian infrastructure that remains intact will be destroyed, and the risk of nuclear war will increase…
This fella is obviously a Putin stooge and an appeaser afraid of nuclear blackmail. We’re in it no matter the cost and for as long as it takes.
The hard reality today is that Ukraine will not recover all of the territory it has lost since 2015. At some stage, Ukraine will be forced to cede at least some territory to Russia. Moreover, if this war continues, Ukraine may well lose even more territory.
The hard reality is that in a conventional war between Ukraine and Russia, Russia wins. Ukraine will lose more territory and will be forced to cede more territory. It seems likely that Russia will take Luhansk, Donetsk. Also Zaporizhizia and the nuclear power plant. That will stay Russian. Mykolaev and Odessa. Add Transnistria with its Cobasna Ammo Depot, perhaps the largest ammo depot in Eastern Europe. Crimea has been, is, and will continue to be part of Russia.
The war has taken a cession of just Luhansk and Donetsk, or parts thereof, off the table. There will be no going back to the status of the Minsk accords which proved to be a ploy to gain time to get ready to have another go. If Ukraine is not demilitarized, they have demonstrated they would simply do it again when capable. Russia will render them incapable of doing it again for a long time.
The problem with such a peace scenario is that it takes about 80% of GDP away from what was the poorest nation in Europe going into the war and leaves it landlocked. Most of their former industry would be located in Russia. They could well become a failed state with neighbors annexing various parts. That will be land for welfare.
If the war were to end tomorrow, and the status quo were enforced for the future, Ukraine would still be screwed. What Ukraine now really needs is for Russia to cede land already gained for peace.
Okay, then, leave your door unlocked.
Yes, the Donbas is indeed mainly inhabited by Russian speakers. Evolution of language laws in Ukraine since incependence:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine
This does not mention increasing pressure on Russian speakers, including social pressure to change their names to sound more Ukrainian, etc., which ramped up after 2014. Western journalists visiting cities such as Odessa noted such pressure had increased even more in the year or so preceding the Russian invasion, as well as prejudice against Russian speakers.
As for borders, Ukraine was never its very own country until 1991. The borders have shifted over the centuries (and decades). Various parts were inside various empires. The very name of the new country, Ukraina, means on the borderlands/at the frontier. It straddles ancient fault lines between religions and empires.
I posted some maps from WaPo awhile back that show how what is now Ukraine was ruled by various empires. I personally prefer old maps, but these show the outline of the present-day country of Ukraine in green, so you can more easily see which parts once belonged to whom at various stages:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4115436/posts?page=36#36
More here (but no maps, and other things discussed):
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4115436/posts?page=18#18
“As for Ukraine, it started in earnest back in 2014, when we backed and financed a violent overthrow of its legitimately-elected government and installed our handpicked leaders. Look how that turned out.”
Nice try. It started in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea and fostered a civil war.
“Somebody forgot to tell Biden:”
Nice try. The link you included is from 2021; Zelensky made his comment in 2022.
And, you are WAY off on your claim that the US was planning
to make Sevastopol a NATO base, and that’s why Russia grabbed it. Your problem — one among many — is that Russia invaded Crimea in February, 2014 and annexed Crimea a few weeks later in March, 2014. The report you cited is from July, 2017 and addresses the plan to update port facilities near ODESSA. That was more than THREE YEARS after Russia had invaded Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea.
You are so desperate to prove your pro-Kremlin bona fides that you have resorted to distortion and outright lies.
Give it up.
Thanks - very interesting post!
“Bro what are you 90???”
Not yet.
“Russia’s army can’t defeat a third world dem owned cesspool like Ukraine.”
Not for the lack of trying.
“And LIKE I SAID, what would we do if Russia made the same pact with Mexico what NATO was going to make with Ukraine?”
Ukraine wasn’t going to be admitted to NATO and you know it. Admission as a member requires the UNANIMOUS consent of all the current members, and there is no way Ukraine would get a unanimous “Yea” vote.
“What did we do when Cuba tried it.’
The USSR had introduced offensive nuclear missiles into Cuba, with ranges that would take in pretty much all of the lower 48 of the US, excluding a slice of pie at the extreme Pacific northwest. We didn’t squawk about Russian troops in Cuba before that.
“And like I said, I know what Putin is, but at least progressive FREAKS can’t run around destroying the minds of their children.”
Surprisingly you seem to have swallowed the Russian talking points. I remember you from years past, as you usually had some interesting comments on various subjects; when you disappeared many on FR assumed you had died or had suffered some other mishap; and I, for one, missed your posts. BTW: Have you seen the photo of Putin sucking on some kid’s chest? That is not generally what a normal adult would do.
“Physician, haal thyself.”
That doesn’t even make sense in the context of this discussion. In any event, I am not now nor have I ever been a physician.
No, the POINT IS that Biden made that statement BEFORE the 2022 invasion at the same time Putin was insisting that Ukraine not be admitted to NATO. That is why I chose the statement made BEFORE the invasion. Why do you think Putin finally resorted to the military option after trying everything else?
Yes, Zelensky said he would forego NATO membership in 2022 when he was wanting to negotiate rather than have this war — but we said no to negotiations. And Z had grown jaded re promises of official NATO membership that had never panned out, too. We kept dancing that carrot, but never delivered.
What has been said after the invasion is not germane to subject under discussion: why Putin invaded, and when Putin at last resorted to the military option, he began with the lowest rung on the escalation ladder once one has climbed to military intervention with his tiny force called a “special operation”.
But, as you illogically seem to think what was said *after* the invasion has anything to with the subject at hand (why the invasion and why begun as it was), yes, we doubled down on pledging that Ukraine would become a NATO member, repeating it several times since the invasion:
Headline: NATO renews membership vow to Ukraine, pledges arms and aid
Date: November 29, 2022
Link: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-nato-europe-romania-4b073dd620cad097f22106e6a29c859c
BTW, I wrote “doubled down” before looking up a link for proof, and found it amusing the journo had also used that phrase. I notice you never provide any proof of your assertions.
No, I am not way off. I closely followed all this back in 2014. Obviously, you did not.
***Can you not read???*** I wrote we started building that naval base AFTER Putin grabbed Crimea! Yes, in 2017! Does it matter whether that article was three months or three years after Putin snagged Crimea? It has nothing whatsoever to do with the loose talk of making Sebastopol into a NATO naval base before Putin grabbed it in 2014. And of course it was near ODESSA! They couldn’t exactly build in Putin’s Crimea, could they?
You seem to be challenged on cause/effect. On both counts above. Cause comes before effect. You seem to think things can cause something to happen in the past.
To make it simple, I repeat: There was loose talk going around about turning Sevastopol into a NATO naval base in 2014 BEFORE Putin grabbed Crimea. This talk very likely factored into Putin’s decision to grab it. He may have grabbed it anyway, without the loose talk, because he feared this would happen if Ukraine succeeded to NATO membership in the future. So he opportunistically grabbed it while he had the chance. After Putin put the kibosh on that scheme, we built a naval base near Odessa. Which served as a NATO port hosting NATO exercises in the Black Sea. To say nya-nya and neener-neener to Putin. And to highlight that we considered Ukraine a de facto junior member of NATO.*
I have not lied, as you falsely accuse. You have either lied by deliberately misrepresenting my post, or else you are mentally confused about timelines and the fact that cause precedes effect, not the other way round. You owe me an apology, but I gather from your tactics that you are not man to enough to do that. I normally give people the benefit of the doubt, that there has simply been a misunderstanding or misreading. But when someone starts with the false accusations and insults as you have, well, that goes out the window.
*We were obviously using Ukraine as a de facto NATO member, taking advantage of it. We held NATO exercises there, both on land and sea. So Ukraine got the risk involved, but not the defense guarantee. We kinda used them, eh? Provoked Russia on their territory, but did not formally pledge to defend it with our own blood. They got benefits, though: we were arming, equipping and training their military. And moola, lots of moola. The neocons got the benefit of getting to goad the Russians into a proxy war with NATO, but without the risk of having to spill American blood once Putin had enough.
“No, the POINT IS that Biden made that statement BEFORE the 2022 invasion at the same time Putin was insisting that Ukraine not be admitted to NATO. That is why I chose the statement made BEFORE the invasion. Why do you think Putin finally resorted to the military option after trying everything else?”
Nonsense. For years there have been four NATO nations on Russia’s borders but Russia never invaded them. So, this excuse that Putin invaded Ukraine because it MIGHT at some time in the future join NATO as a member state doesn’t hold water. Russia invaded Ukraine because it wants Ukraine’s resources, which is what all nation’s with imperial designs generally do.
“Yes, Zelensky said he would forego NATO membership in 2022 when he was wanting to negotiate rather than have this war...”
He already HAD “this war” because Russia had already invaded.
“...but we said no to negotiations.”
You just contradicted yourself. He made that concession in negotiations. And negotiations broke down because (1) Russia wasn’t serious about them; and (2) the atrocity at Bucha came to light.
“And Z had grown jaded re promises of official NATO membership that had never panned out, too. We kept dancing that carrot, but never delivered.”
Because Ukraine during that period had not met the conditions for even being invited into NATO.
Here is an article on the process:
https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2022/05/17/nato-membership-requires-long-multi-step-process
“What has been said after the invasion is not germane to subject under discussion: why Putin invaded, and when Putin at last resorted to the military option, he began with the lowest rung on the escalation ladder once one has climbed to military intervention with his tiny force called a ‘special operation’.”
You do know, I presume, that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and illegally annexed Crimea? And committed forces in the Donbas to fight along with the Russian-backed separatists against Ukraine? And then you have the chutzpah to say the 2022 invasion was carried out by a TINY FORCE?
You lack any credibility. You have shown that you will distort and misrepresent and outright lie to advance your pro-Kremlin views.
“No, I am not way off. I closely followed all this back in 2014. Obviously, you did not.”
I obviously did. Because I presented you with facts, not distortions and misrepresentations and lies, which is your SOP.
“I wrote we started building that naval base AFTER Putin grabbed Crimea! Yes, in 2017! Does it matter whether that article was three months or three years after Putin snagged Crimea? It has nothing whatsoever to do with the loose talk of making Sebastopol into a NATO naval base before Putin grabbed it in 2014. And of course it was near ODESSA! They couldn’t exactly build in Putin’s Crimea, could they?”
This is what you said: “Back in 2014 around putsch time, there was loose talk from American lips about turning Sebastopol (then leased to Russia under agreement made at independence) into a NATO port. Oops! Putin grabbed it. So we built a naval base for NATO not far away (but not as cool as having Sevastopol would have been).” And you attached a link that said absolutely nothing about Sevastopol or “loose talk from American lips.” And you incredibly say that because of these “loose American lips” Russia GRABBED the Sevastopol navy base. Russia had already been occupying that navy base for years, pursuant to a 20-year lease that was set to run till 2017. They didn’t have to GRAB anything; all they had to do was tear up the lease (which Russia did in 2014) and not vacate. At which point Russia became heavily armed squatters. Where is the evidence that NATO planned a naval base at Sevastopol, especially with Russia occupying it? Trot it out!
“You seem to be challenged on cause/effect. On both counts above. Cause comes before effect. You seem to think things can cause something to happen in the past.”
Nice try. Your attempt at misdirection will not work.
“To make it simple, I repeat: There was loose talk going around about turning Sevastopol into a NATO naval base in 2014 BEFORE Putin grabbed Crimea. This talk very likely factored into Putin’s decision to grab it.”
Please post your evidence about this loose talk.
“He may have grabbed it anyway...”
Gee, ya think?
“...without the loose talk, because he feared this would happen if Ukraine succeeded to NATO membership in the future.”
Nonsense. Russia was already firmly in control of the base at Sevastopol. Kind of like the US at Guantanamo in Cuba. Russia wasn’t going to be kicked out of Sevastopol just as the US wasn’t going to be kicked out of Guantanamo.
“So he opportunistically grabbed it while he had the chance.”
He grabbed it because he knew at the time there was a fickle West in general and US in particular.
“After Putin put the kibosh on that scheme...”
Again, post your evidence that there was a “scheme.” And, I mean from a credible source, not some nameless and faceless blogger.
“...we built a naval base near Odessa. Which served as a NATO port hosting NATO exercises in the Black Sea. To say nya-nya and neener-neener to Putin.”
How old are you? Eleven?
“And to highlight that we considered Ukraine a de facto junior member of NATO.”
Ukraine was a non-NATO partner in the Partnership for Peace program, as are some 20 other non-NATO countries around the globe. Those countries can join in NATO exercises or not, whatever they chose: They are under no NATO obligation to do anything re: mutual defense. Do you know who is also a member of the NATO Partnership for Peace program? Russia, and it has been since 1994.
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