Posted on 06/24/2023 2:41:06 AM PDT by McGruff
Putin never mentions which side started this rebellion, refers to Wagner fighters as heroes who fought beside Russian military, alludes to deception being used to foment this rebellion. Putin speaks of power struggle and egos. Accusations Prighozhin has long made against Russian military leadership.
From his demeanor and comments, you cannot conclude that Putin is accusing Prighozhin alone of deliberately inciting rebellion. Leaves open the possibility that Putin may believe that Wagner (and its chief) were incited and are being misled. Possible external involvement.
Prigozhin has never been a true mercenary. He is closer to what the IRGC is - formally not official so they can skirt some rules, but still a state structure.
If Putin goes down, the left will make Biden a hero and re-elect a man with the intellect of a garden vegetable.
If this were protracted (say going 2 weeks)...Wagner would stand to lose a minimum of a thousand men. But with the Army...a lot of marginally trained guys...it’s probably 3 to 1 loss situation for the Russian Army.
One other odd aspect (seeing the 2 helicopters shot down this AM)...Russia can’t afford to have two weeks of this and twenty-odd choppers removed from the inventory.
No one has stated security situation in Moscow...other than saying the road system from Rostov has been closed off (I’d guess about 500 km from Moscow). I would question how much security is left around Moscow, and if there’s marginally nothing...Wagner could put on a ‘pony-show’ and take the capital in three or four days.
Brings back the episode where the coup was attempted in 1990s...failing.
Weakest condition for the security of the city....since 1920s. No one expected this.
Yeah, on offensive actions...I think a lot of Russian Army strength will be pulled toward Rostov. You could see a whole loss of the front-line situation, with Ukraine taking 30 miles in a day or two.
Russian civilian side of this...mostly disbelief that a coup is forming.
Military Summary Channel
Has consistently been one of the better daily war reporting sources
Dima’s take on the situation ( he is in Belarus)
It’s about money ( Wagner contract expiring has not been renewed) and future role serving the Russia govt and its interests….power struggles, corruption, egos
Putin compares ongoing situation to 1917 war and how Russia was torn by internal insurrection fomented to prevent a Russian victory.
Dima believes this situation gives Putin power to use martial law and declare a full national mobilization.
We shall see.
Meanwhile, save your brain cells by avoiding reporting from the US, UK and Kiev
Interesting note from Military Summary report that at least one Russian unit ordered to fire on Wagner’s convoy…refused
1991 coup attempt was extremely unpopular. They had very little support and hoped to rely on fear.
Prigozhin is quite popular and he attempted to create a narrative that the enemies are Shoigu and the Oligarchs, who are both very unpopular and tried to avoid mentioning Putin as an enemy - just a Czar betrayed by courtier traitors.
Now Putin came out with a statement against him so Prigozhin has to attack him, but he will choose “a good Czar, who got fooled by traitors”.
We’ll see how it will work.
You assume there is a direct connection between what is happening in Russia and American politics.
There isn’t
Col. McGregor has diagnosed this. It’s “Just propaganda”. Nothing to see here...
If Putin goes down for any possible reason, you don’t think Biden is going to take a victory lap and ride it like a stolen horse all the way to re-election? Dems will happily elect a serial felon and traitor.
There is no connection between US politics and any form of reality, Russian or otherwise.
“””Their route of march is directly along the supply line for the invasion. By controlling Rostov and Voronezh, they have the supply dumps they need to move on Moscow.”””
That needs to be posted a lot, Wagner is taking the supply depots, they have them for their own purposes and at the same time deprive them from Russia, and from being used, at least temporarily, in Ukraine.
It’s never been in the interest of American conservatives to support the Tin Pot Tsar. His corrupt and fake nation was never going to save us from “globohomo”.
Plus there’s Putin repeatedly threatening nuclear weapons if he doesn’t get his way and conquer his Slavic neighbor and former brother-in-arms Ukraine.
So, right now Russian soldiers are thinking about these things and asking the same questions soldiers have asked themselves since the dawn of time:
“How Fk-D am I?”
Gee, let’s see:
-nuclear war, death in a meat grinder, and continue the slaughter for the same oligarchs and megalomaniacs who put them there.
Or:
-Go home. Live. Stay out of trouble and have a life.
-If it takes marching on Moscow so be it. At least they will have a chance at life and liberty.
IMO they will choose the ‘I am Less-Fkd’ option.
IMHO the CIA air drop is happening as we speak.
I don’t think Prigo needs airdrops.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
USD cash , food and ordance. Prig9 will distribute the cheap Russian stuff to the Russian population as he goes.
He needs advanced ordnance to fight his way through half the Russian army. hand held Anti Tank and shoulder launched surface to air.
The food will go to his soldoers and to the populace along his route of march, about 400 miles to Moscow of which he has already covered over 100.
ITS BLITZREIKSKY!
Thanks Zhang Fei.
Winning a war didn’t help GHW Bush win re-election in 92.
“People continue to ask me my take on the situation in Russia.
My take is, that until we actually see any proof of kinetic hostilities, there is no situation in Russia.
We’ve seen wild speculation and unverified reports, but on the ground it looks like a photo op.
But if you want to know what I THINK is happening; I think Prigozhin is doing what he always does, which is say crazy shit to create the illusion of disarray, to cover for Russian tactical movement/assaults.
Just like he did in Bakhmut, he claimed Russia wasn’t giving him ammo, he was going to pull all his troops out, wanted Shoigu’s head on a platter, etc., only to turn around and finish taking Bakhmut shortly after.
I think Prigozhin and Putin are conducting a psyop to disguise Russian troop movement to either launch an offensive, or coerce Ukraine into attacking.
The only place this is a civil war is on the Internet, because the 🇺🇦 folks are eager to say and believe anything to deflect from the catastrophic losses in their holy “counter-offensive”.
Just like Belgorod, in a couple days, the NAFO trolls will be on to the next thing because this turned out to be nothing.
But as always, we shall wait and see.
- another take from Twitter
PS - I will add I’ve never seen Zeepers so euphoric since the daily mail article claimed Putin would be dead within months. That fact of Zeeper excitement alone makes this situation suspect.
The only issue would be which hard-liner replaced Putin.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.