Posted on 10/03/2023 5:48:01 PM PDT by CFW
“Dow down almost 500 today and about 2500 in the past month.”
Yep. And the tech heavy Nasdaq was down 1.87%, closing 248 points down at 13,059. The NDX (Nasdaq top 101) was down to 14565 which is a drop of over 270 points, having pulled back from their earlier lows. The top tech stocks took a beating today. Amazon, Microsoft, Nivida, Facebook, Broadcom, Google, etc. were all down 1.5 to 3 percent. After-hours trading shows the beating is continuing into the dark.
Anyone who thinks the economy is getting better is blind as a bat.
People are deeper in debt than they ever imagined.
They are giving up their pets, the pounds and rescues are filled past capacity.
People are selling everything they can and trying to flip everything they can but it is tough as even crap is commanding high prices.
Here in Florida the invasion of refugees from red states is pushing long term residents from their rentals and people with homes not yet paid off are desperately renting rooms...
People are living secretly in storage facilities, and families are trying to make do in marginally upgraded tool sheds. It isn’t pretty out there...
I am in Walmart nearly every other day to buy marked down/expiring food just to stay afloat. Prices on EVERYTHING have been doing as your example indicates. Items I used by buy and now cannot afford have more than doubled in price in the last couple of years. The economy definitely is NOT ‘okay.’
The high and rising interest rates are killing the supply side of the Supply & Demand law of economics. This shortage in supply is causing higher prices. So, the bankers raise interest rates to “stifle inflation”, which just causes more inflation.
Bankers get rich, we get screwed.
We like to say, don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.
Real wages are down substantially, prices for necessities have risen dramatically. Having jobs available is nice but does not make for a good economy at this time. People are suffering. It is estimated that 57% of the population have less than $1,000 in savings.
cloward piven, overwhelm until collapse or build back better
Inflation: “Wage cuts. Wage cuts for all!!! Why aren’t you peasants happy?”
“....People are deeper in debt than they ever imagined. .....”
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From the consumer point of view, ^^^ this ^^^ is the problem.
I’m no genius far from it and know little about how the broad economy works but even when things were going well, in 2017, we, spouse and me, finally got down to paper and pencil to try to figure out why, on a six-figure income, we were always counting the seconds to our next paycheck.
From that point we eliminated over $1,000 per month of stupid spending and paid off all of our debt, which was well into six-figure territory. It took us 5 long, freaking long miserable years, hellish years to accomplish this feat but here we are today with zero debt, a paid for home and putting 50% of our net into either savings accounts or 401Ks.
And yes I’m watching my 401K get gutted but steady as she blows keep buying and investing and when we come out of this nightmare thanks to 81 million American voters, we will have bought at a discount.
We live like we are poor and for the first time ever in my life I can say that I’m not happy that we are about to enter a major economic downturn where the pain will be massive, but we personally don’t live in complete fear of it either because we have spent the last 6 years preparing for it. The way I think now and I hope you agree, if coffee at walmart is priced more than I want to pay, I pass on it, simple as that. I don’t complain about it or cry over it, I just pass on it. Wants vs. needs.
We can’t do much about the government debt, but we can do something about our household debt.
“People are living secretly in storage facilities, and families are trying to make do in marginally upgraded tool sheds. It isn’t pretty out there...”
Same here. Storage sheds, camping trailers, and old RV’s are appearing behind homes everywhere here in our county. Our zoning department (consisting of one guy and a part-time clerk) has spoken to the county commissioners about cracking down on the practice. Since almost everyone in local politics personally knows someone who has an adult child or distant relative living in such a situation, I doubt the push for a crack-down will go anywhere.
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders in the United States decreased to 51.80 points in September from 57.50 points in August of 2023.
(The NMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries)
That’s a big decrease.
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It was. And in just released economic news regarding U.S. oil inventories,
"Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.224 million barrels in the week ending September 29, 2023, following a 2.17 million decline in the previous period, and way more than market forecasts of a 0.446 million drop, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed. Also, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, declined by 1.269 million barrels, above consensus for a 0.333 million drop. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks rose by 6.481 million, compared with forecasts of a 0.161 million increase; and crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub went up by 0.132 million barrels, after a 0.943 million fall in the previous week." source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
And, "Crude Oil Imports in the United States decreased by 1958 Thousand Barrels in the week ended September 29th 2023. source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Further, Refinery Crude Runs in the United States decreased by 463 Thousand Barrels in the week ended September 29th 2023, a third consecutive decline. source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Meanwhile: "Sept 28 (Reuters) - Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Thursday that the ban on fuel exports will not be lifted soon and will remain in place until the domestic market stabilises, TASS news agency reported.
Shulginov also said that some additional measures could be taken in order to tackle the fuel shortages, according to the news agency.
"I will say one thing - expectations of a quick lifting of the fuel export ban are futile - the measure will last as long as necessary to stabilise fuel supply and prices," he was quoted as saying by TASS.
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Crude oil is off its highs of last week, but I suspect it will soon reverse that downward trend and return to over $90 Bbl. (supply and demand still rules no matter how ignored by the left).
Private businesses in the US hired 89K workers in September 2023, the least since January 2021 when private employers shed jobs, and well below market forecasts of 153K. It follows a revised 180K increase in August, compared to an initial 177K. The services sector added 81K jobs, namely leisure/hospitality (92K), financial activities (17K) and education and health services (10K). Construction also added 16K and natural resources/mining created 4K jobs. In contrast, losses were seen in professional and business services (-32K), trade, transportation and utilities (-13K) and in manufacturing (-12K). Large establishments drove the slowdown, losing 83K jobs and wiping out gains they made in August. On the other hand, small companies added 95K jobs and mid-sized ones 72K. Meanwhile, annual wage growth slowed to 5.9%, the 12th consecutive monthly decline. Pay gains also shrank for job changers to 9%. source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
And:
Dollar Eases from 11-Month High on Weak ADP Report The dollar index fell below the 107.0 mark on Wednesday, following the release of a disappointing ADP jobs report ahead of Friday's official employment data. In September, US private employers added 89,000 jobs, the lowest figure since January 2021 when private employers shed jobs, and well below market expectations of a 153,000 increase. Nevertheless, the dollar remained near its strongest level since November 2022, bolstered by hawkish comments from Fed officials that continue to reinforce expectations of elevated interest rates for an extended period. In other economic news, the JOLTS report released earlier this week showed an unexpected increase in job openings in August, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated the smallest contraction in factory activity in nearly a year for September.
I work in the Fortune 50 sector and see revenues and investment dollars going out, I even approve such funding, and I can tell you that things are far worse than people see with these reports.
The reports coming out a year from now will be stupefying. The layoffs coming are beyond anything 2001 or 2010 or covid ever thought about. When entire factories are shuttered and the reserve funding is headed fast to zero, there is nothing left to offer. The high interest rates will consume the $12 trillion floating around. I am no liberals, but the bankers will get richer and the working man will get poorer as he has less money and higher costs.
“I work in the Fortune 50 sector and see revenues and investment dollars going out, I even approve such funding, and I can tell you that things are far worse than people see with these reports.”
I’m glad someone in the financial sector sees the same things I see. It’s like we are a house setting on the edge of a cliff and the ground is crumbling away beneath us. The people are all on the other side of the house partying and singing, “Isn’t life grand”?! while ignoring the slowly shifting house. Once we slide over the edge the fall will be swift and deadly.
However, there is good news. Walt Disney (DIS) decreased to a near 9-year low of 78.99.
For those who read beyond the headlines
“US Stocks Shed after JOLTS Report
Wall Street tanked in a broad sell-off on Tuesday, after hotter-than-expected JOLTS report
Why did stox fall? Job market is hotter than expected
Same w headline 2
Headline 3. Oil inventories fell because economy is stronger than expected
#4
Economy is stronger than expected
The selloff for long-dated debt continued as strong economic data underscored the resilience of the US economy to high borrowing costs, strengthening worries that the Federal Reserve will be forced to leave interest rates elevated
#5
Should have been your lead. That’s the only real negative
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index plummeted to 36.3 in October 2023, compared to September’s 43.2 and well below market forecasts of 41.6. It was the 26th consecutive month in which the reading stayed in pessimistic territory
The problem is that real wages have dropped significantly.
I believe the total for the Bidet years is nominal wages up 12%, inflation up about 16%, real wages down net 4%.
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Yes which means the FEDS will not only not pivot and start reversing rate hikes, but instead may increase the interest rate once more before year's end.
Inflationary. Everything is inflationary.
September's inflation numbers have not yet been released, but for August it showed:
US core consumer prices, which exclude volatile items such as food and energy, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in August of 2023, above market expectations of a 0.2% increase and accelerating from 0.2% advances in the two earlier months. Costs were sharply higher for services unrelated to energy (0.4%), a key gauge for demand-driven inflation that is closely followed by the Federal Reserve, due to persistent inflation for shelter (0.3%) and transportation services (2%). In the meantime, the CPI was also higher for new vehicles (0.3%), apparel (0.2%), medical care commodities (0.6%), and medical care services (0.1%), while prices fell for a third consecutive month for used cars and trucks (-1.2%). Year-on-year, core consumer prices advanced by 4.3%. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
That is all, of course, whether or not you can depend upon the economic numbers being released as being correct. With the constant revisions to previous reporting period's numbers, especially on job numbers, we can't be sure.
If the FED is depending on those numbers when making their rate decisions, and those numbers are incorrect, then their decisions may just be adding to the future economic woes.
A lot of defense manufactures (Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, BAE) placed several years’ worth of material on order last two years in my opinion, and this is just my opinion, under the guise of covid supply chain disruptions but really because anticipated economic turmoil. We shall see.
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