Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy NY Times/Siena Poll

RCP ^

[rhinohunter]

Reality check is that 3rd party candidate support always craters at the last minute.

Correct. A good rule of thumb is 3rd-party candidates will actually only get about half of the votes indicated by the final pre-election polls.

My theory on that is the polls reflect actual PREFERENCE. But on election day, the 3rd-party supporters realize their candidate has no real chance, so they vote for the lesser of the 2 Uniparty evils.

[x]

Reality check is that 3rd party candidate support always craters at the last minute.

Yes, that happened to Perot. Kennedy will get 7-8% if he's lucky. It would be interesting if they let him into the debates, though.

This is as high as Kennedy will get.

You wouldn't say that if you partied with the Kennedy kids in the Seventies.

[FarCenter]

Trump Favorability Ratings — favorable 39.5%, unfavorable 56.3%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

Biden Favorability Ratings — favorable 40.7%, unfavorable 54.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html

[John S Mosby]

Yes— look at those push polls. The methodology. Make it what you want it to be. Far Center which side?

Lumpen masses polled for favorability by media hacks.

[Political Junkie Too]

I will have to take a deep dive into this poll, but I suspect that this poll is tilted towards Republicans to lay the groundwork to dump Biden.

In this post, I will just show the poll demographics.

All Likely Voters:

• Democrat: 31%
• Republican: 34%
• Independent: 28%
• Other: 3%

Analysis: This is a R+3 poll. That is highly unusual.

Arizona Likely Voters:

• Democrat: 28%
• Republican: 36%
• Independent: 31%
• Other: 3%

Analysis: Arizona is a R+8 poll? The state that didn't elect President Trump or Kari Lake?

Georgia Likely Voters:

• Democrat: 32%
• Republican: 35%
• Independent: 26%
• Other: 3%

Analysis: Georgia is a R+3 poll? Again, they didn't elect Trump, Herschel Walker, or either of their two incumbent Republican Senators.

Michigan Likely Voters:

• Democrat: 28%
• Republican: 28%
• Independent: 34%
• Other: 4%

Analysis: This is a tied poll. This is the state that reelected Rashida Tlaib, Gretchen Whitmer, and two Democrat Senators. However, the House of Representatives is split 7D-6R.

Nevada Likely Voters:

• Democrat: 32%
• Republican: 33%
• Independent: 26%
• Other: 5%

Analysis: This is a R+1 poll. Nevada has two Democrat Senators and 3D-1R in the House of Representatives.

Pennsylvania Likely Voters:

• Democrat: 38%
• Republican: 38%
• Independent: 20%
• Other: 2%

Analysis: This is a tied poll. Pennsylvania is a 9D-8R in the House of Representatives, and two Democrat Senators (including John Fetterman). The last Republican governor was in 2011-2014, and before that was 1995-2002.

Wisconsin Likely Voters:

• Democrat: 30%
• Republican: 33%
• Independent: 31%
• Other: 3%

Analysis: This is a R+3 poll. Wisconsin is R6-D2 in the House of Representatives, and the Senate is split. The Governor's office has been flip-flopping consistently since 1960.

Conclusion: The poll demographics in Wisconsin seems reasonable given past voting trends. The remaining states seem to be tilted Republican in opposition to recent voting patterns in their respective states, especially in Arizona and Georgia.

-PJ

[devane617]

Perot caused GHW Bush to lose to Clinton...Remember?

[dfwgator]

GHW Bush caused GHW Bush to lose to Clinton.

[Soul of the South]

“He’ll only be on the ballot in red states. Just watch.”

The following states have the potential to go either way. If Kennedy’s goal is to be Trump’s spoiler he will be on the ballot of most of these.
Michigan
Wisconsin
Georgia
North Carolina
Minnesota
Virginia
Ohio
Arizona

[TexasFreeper2009]

it is actually really hard and expensive to get on the ballot as an independent. Existing 3rd party is not so bad, but on your own? almost impossible.

[MDLION]

Shows the level of media bias corruption. However it turns out, Kennedy is definitely doing well enough to deserve coverage and media interviews. Fox is the only ones who’ll talk to him. But TV is going the way of the dinosaurs anyways.

[woweeitsme]

Those are ugly numbers for Trump. I can’t see him winning if these favorability polls are even somewhat accurate.

[wiseprince]

It’s meaningless. Leadership comes with the territory. If you’re wishy washy you’ll have high favorability but that’s not real leadership.

[one guy in new jersey]

Yes.

[Zathras]

Kennedy wouldn’t be running 3rd party if the goal was to win.
He wants to be Ross II.

[Thunder90]

Kennedy is likely to take an anti-Israel position. That will scrape off some hard left Dems.

[StAnDeliver]

"kennedy most likely wont even be on the ballot."

LP is certified all 50 states since 2016.

[TexasFreeper2009]

he isn’t running as a libertarian but an independent