Turkish parliament's double-fisted knockout

Asia Times ^ | 3/4/2003 | Robert M Cutler

[DB]

I'd bet big bucks Turkey's PM promised the approval to Washington, that it was already a done deal. They took him at his word. And here we are.

[marron]

I don't think the vote took place in a vacuum. There is no doubt enormous wrangling behind the scenes as Saddam and the left struggle to line up their forces. We went into this thinking that transit rights would be a "done deal", since for one, the Turks have been with us right through from the beginning of the Iraqi war, due to our NATO relationship, due to our relationship with the Turkish military.

But there are political realities in Turkey, and there has been a shift in the governing party. I have seen the new ruling party described as more populist than Islamist, but in either case, anti-western tendencies seem to be growing in Turkey. Just as Islamism grows thoughout the world, it has also grown in Turkey. The reasons for it are many, in part reflecting perhaps the natural tendency people have of trying to get back to their roots in time of trouble. It just happens that, in Turkey, Islamism has offered itself as an authentic Turkish alternative to being subsumed into an empty and corrupt West.

Thats all fine, except that it has very real consequences in terms of realpolitik.

More Western-oriented Turks have seen this tendency growing, and have pushed for accession to the EU as a way of confirming Turkey's Western future, and heading these people off at the pass. Unfortunately, Turkish accession to the EU scares the pants of the Europeans, and they have found every pretext to delay it, to the point of being rather openly racist. This further humiliation only strengthens the hand of the Islamist parties in Turkey, and in fact they have been brought into power as their analysis of the world gains ground.

So what we thought was a done deal, was not.

It would be incredible to believe that Saddam, and pro-Saddam forces, and the anti-American left were sitting on their hands during this time. We know that many Euro leaders have financial relationships with Saddam, which can explain much, but cannot explain everything. No politician, bought or not, can get too far out ahead of his people if he wants to stay in power. You could make similar assumptions about US politicians and their relationships with the Saudis, but this has not stopped Bush, for example, whose family is famously invested in the present Saudi regime, from taking positions that are polar opposite of the Saudi regime's, and in taking positions that may in the end bring it down.

But the Islamists across the middle east, and perhaps in Turkey as well, seem unable to view Saddam as any threat to themselves, which is astonishing considering the fact that no one on earth has killed as many Muslims as has he, but the fact is what it is. To an Islamist, even a populist speaking in Islamist terms, the US is a far greater threat than is a belligerent Saddam.

This sounds astonishing until you realize that the US itelf is similarly polarized, and when you remember by how close a margin the left was denied the White House, and when you realized the almost impregnable power centers it continues to occupy in the Senate, the press, and the University.

If you believe in confronting aggressive evil, you are never going to get a preponderance of the public behind you. It didn't happen in the years leading up to the Second World War, which is sort of a historical benchmark for this kind of thing. Most of Europe supported either the Hitlerian view of history and economics, or the Stalinist view, and outside of Britain, could only muster a few bands of partisans to resist it. Nowhere did Europe put up more than a symbolic fight before laying down its arms and rounding up its jews with enthusiasm.

In our time, we face a leftist enemy that has allied itself with the Islamists, and again we are going into battle with almost no support outside of the Anglo-saxon world, and that only at the expense of some extreme political courage on the part of Blair and Howard who are with us in the face of the overwhelming antipathy of their people.

You can micro-analyze why we lost Turkey, and its an interesting story, but the fact is that we hardly have anyone. The Vilnius Axis is appreciated, but it will be offering no amored divisions to march on Baghdad. We will be doing this alone.

The State Department deserves all the criticism in the world, and in other venues I have called for their rebuilding from the ground up, maybe disbanding them along with the ATF before rebuilding them with a better qualified cadre of patriots. I suggest they recruit the first 10,000 names out of the phone book, they could not do worse.

But while they are deserving of their share of criticism, the fact remains that no one will be compensating the US for its losses as war begins. Turkey's demand for compensation is understandable, but is beside the point. The point from our point of view is that friends don't let friends go into battle alone. We may well not have been the friends the Turks hoped we would be, which means their unwillingness to fight at our side may be more symptom than first-cause, but it is what it is. Even before the present blow-up the Turks had made it clear they were going only to occupy the north, and not to join in the attack on Iraqi troop concentrations.

So, its deja-vue all over again. We are going to war, and we are going essentially alone with a very few friends. Very few. What would be unusual about that?

[mjaneangels@aolcom]

"Let's forget about fault.."

Nope. I can not do that. It is too much fun blaming CNN for this.

"The western press is used to portraying us as lowlifes."

They are pretty good at portraiting us conservatives in this country the same way.

[Pagey]

I'm really surprised at the actions of the political parties in Turkey. It's really amazing.I wonder how Paul Wolfowitz feels about this right now.I'd like to be a fly on his shoulder.

[habaes corpussel]

"Press reports, especially in North America, suggested that a deal between Ankara and Washington was just a question of money, using the metaphor of the bazaar to explain Turkish negotiating behavior. In the end, this description was shown to be ill-conceived and inaccurate. More was at stake than just the amount of money. Turkish leaders consistently said so, but no one in Washington seemed to hear them. The American administration also appeared to assume that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Ankara could make its parliamentary deputies fall into line as easily as the Republican Party in the US can whip its congressmen and senators into supporting administration policy."

A lot said in this first paragraph.

[mjaneangels@aolcom]

"Sadly, this is what happens when a "Third-World" country thinks it's actually in this century.
If they weren't so currupt in the first place, their economy wouldn't be so fragile."

Is that what you call it when a nation abides by the sanctions put on another country? Are you suggesting that Turkey would have not been corrupt if they had done the type of deals that France, Germany and Russia are accused of doing? One of the main problems with the Turkish economy before this vote came up was that Turkey did abide by the sanctions against Iraq. That cost them a huge amount of money, and really hurt their economy.

"They're just another Moslem country stuck in the 14th century..."

I suppose that is what you mean when considering that Turkey took in tens of thousands of refugees during and after Gulf War I. Maybe you did not know this, but most of those refugees are Kurds and the Turks do not like the Kurds very well. Turkey may be a Muslim country, but this very act was much more Christian like than what France, Germany and many others around the globe have ever done.

[XEHRpa]

The article was written by a member of the Canadian Inte-LECT-UUUUUUUULE Elite

I believe the word is pronounced "in-tel-LEFT-u-al"

[WOSG]

"The western press is even better at portraying their own President as lowlife."


My thoughts exactly.

Moreover, this is universally blamed on the US in the press, when in fact, it looks like at least 50% of this was AKP not figuring out what they really wanted and not getting their ownparty fully on board the policy, and thus screwing the pooch on it.

A deal delayed is a deal denied.

[Kenny Bunk]

I think the Turks want to be in the awl bidness, just like George. They are holding out for a chance to annex an oil field or two and the chance to settle the Kurds' hash.

Hey, nothing wrong with that strategy, from the Turkish POV. Kurdistan can still exist, just a mite smaller than the Kurds might want, just a mite larger than the Turks might want. Even the Iranians ought to be happy with the deal, as long as they don't have Iraqis to deal with.

[WOSG]

Let's face it, no European nation did a single thing to stop Serbia from killing Muslims in the Land of the Rusting Yugo. You think they would do anything to stop anyone from invading Turkey?

Dont confuse cowardly irresolution with bias. The Euros were just as willing to watch numbly as Rwandans kill eachother. And they "old Europe" is apparently more than satisfied with teh inspections charade instead of real Iraqi disarmament.

They are effete ex-great-powers, saying much and doing little. The only french Carrier Charles De gaulle is a limping rust-bucket, a great metaphor for their real power. France is willing to cater to the Arab street mobs (see how Chiraq was treated in Algeria) but it is all talk.

I do think the treatment of Turkey on the NATO request by Belguim, Germany and France was beyond shabby.

[Cboldt]

The western press is used to portraying us as lowlifes.

The Western press is not accurate. For the most part, aside from the impending "party," Turkey does not enter into the average American's mind, therefore being pro-Turk here (I am) carries no baggage. I think you've done a 180. Do another one. Americans are respectful and tolerant of ability to contribute and succeed.

[GopherIt]

I have little quarrel with the intricacies of Turkish economics and politics that you have been pointing out, and considerable respect for the Turkish culture and hospitality I have experienced, but one item has been all but ignored in the last few days: less than two weeks ago, the U.S., and others, went to bat for Turkey at NATO, big time, and I believe some of the offloading we see on TV at your ports is materiel intended for your defense. As Tom Delay said to the French, "You're welcome."

[Lurker]

Have fun with the soon to be formed independent Kurdish nation right next door.

You guys had your chance.

L

[Mortimer Snavely]

The entire Gulf War problem has produced nothing but disaster for Turkey. I was hoping the present war plans would actually make Turkey more secure, but it looks like that there will just be more of the same.

Pity.

[Mortimer Snavely]

The PKK and the whole "Free Kurdistan" movement is little more than mass-murdering Marxists who have killed 30,000 Turks in the past ten to fifteen years. I know, I was over there while this went on. Our current administration wants to arm these same errr, people with anti-tank and anti-aircraft artillery, allow them a power base in a sea of petroleum resources, and enable them to establish a de facto state.

Turkish response to this will be portrayed as aggression, and the right to self defense will be denied. Turkish recalcitrace has, as its root, the issue of command and control of Turkish troops in Northern Iraq. The money was far less important than has been portrayed in the popular press.

Even if everything goes perfectly in Iraq and the Iraqi military surrenders in droves, we are still looking at the creation of yet another Communist hell-hole which claims one third of Anatolia, and whose sole political theory consists of three words: People Fear Death. For this, the Turks will be branded as the aggressor when they begin to erase Marxist Kurdish power bases from their border. And this from a supposedly conservative US administration!

The present administration's solution to the question of the Kurdish issue has the same touch of incompetence which characterized US diplomacy in Viet Nam. We will reap the whirlwind as a result. Iraq will disintegrate, Turkey will be threatened, and the results will be something out of a nightmare.

[Psalm 73]

I am not ignorant of Turkey's history - that said, I don't want to hear whining about how Turkey's economy was ravaged by the Iraqi sanctions - if their whole economy depends on trade with one hugely corrupt, evil regime that is their fault, not ours.
We have given Turkey a ton of aid over the years, (we owe them nothing), if they squandered it - it's the fault of their corrupt government.
A government which, by the way, turns a blind eye toward persecution of Christians.

Sorry, no tears here for Turkey's plight - they are NOT the victim, we are - if there was not a pre-arranged agreement with them, we would not have put so many eggs in that damned basket - either we were double-crossed, or this is the most incompentant administration since Carter.

[Robert357]

Kind of interesting. There is an article in the NY Times today that talks about what the US Army is going to need to do to counteract the lack of staging areas in Turkey.

Turkey is a main topic of discussions. There are now 30 Navy cargo ships in the eastern Mediterranean, waiting for Turkish approval to unload tanks and other heavy equipment for the Fourth Infantry Division. Some ships have had to refuel in other foreign ports.

"There are several options on the table," General Myers said. "Some are easier to execute. As in most wars, logistics plays a very big role. It helps define what the art of the possible is. The equation changes dramatically whether or not you have support from Turkey or you have to find support some other way."

The options include dispatching the 101st Airborne Division and its fleet of helicopters north from Kuwait to attack targets in northern Iraq. Another alternative would be to fly or parachute troopers to secure air bases in northern Iraq. Tanks and other heavy equipment could be flown in later.

As was said earlier the problem caused by Turkey refusing to provide a staging area is just a minor delay in the movement of troops, it will not change the overall plans or significantly impact the operations.