Looming pandemic which could kill 10s of millions causing sleepless nights

cnews.canoe.ca ^ | November 20, 2004 | HELEN BRANSWELL

[Little Bill]

You sulphurous and thought-executing fires,

Vaunt-couriers to oak-cleaving thunderbolts,

Singe my white head! And thou, all-shaking thunder, but don't give me a shot.

[Veto!]

He didn't have hemorrhagic fever, I was happy to find out.

Scary story. But now you're immune to whatever the heck he had. Yes, the emerging world will submerge once again if the ultimate virus strikes. It will be Bush's fault, of course, even it if happens in 2015. But the Gates Foundation will be ready with 2394870239843 doses of vaccine earmarked for every country but the USA.

(I like your tag line almost as much as mine :)

[Bernard Marx]

I don't think kids are being taught to wash their hands much anymore.

That's scary if you ever eat in restaurants, especially fast food. Of course pandemics are nature's way of taking care of overpopulation.

[EggsAckley]

You're right, of course. I just don't want to get in the way of a pandemic when it happens. Ewwwww.

(going off to wash hands again.) ~</;o)

[DJtex]

So far, we're lucky that H5N1, an avian flu (like the Spanish Flu), can't jump from person to person. To date, everyone who got it, even though 80% of them died, got it directly from fowl and except for one or two suspicious cases, they were not contagious.

The final step for a new pandemic will be for a virulent avian flu to take up residence in a more human-like mammal, usually a pig, that can house both avian flu and human flu viruses. After a certain period, probability suggests that enough gene sharing of avian and human flu virus in the pig will release an avian/human virus mutation that will live and breed in humans. Then we'll have the feared airborne virus that spreads and multiplies from human to human, not just the one-off infection of a human from a bird.

It's not a question of if this happens but when. Some experts think it could happen this year, but many fear we'll be just as unprepared if it happens in the next 2-3 years, which they feel is 40-50% likely. If so, one or two people in your immediate family will probably die. It will make 9/11 seem like a picnic.

[wideminded]

With this in mind...I have, for quite some time, kept a small fan running at my desk to create a small airflow away from myself to persuade airborne particulate matter to go elsewhere.

Any airflow away from you must be compensated by airflow towards you. This could be at a lower velocity, but the volume of air will be the same. It's not even clear that it would help if you directed the fan at your visitors.

[CDHart]

There is air travel to and from the area to the rest of the world -- I'm sure that would do the trick!

Carolyn

[Countyline]

in airplanes full of people ... one of which is ill with the beginning stages of the flu ...

[airborne]

I haven't had the flu since I stopped getting shots, last time I had a shot I got, the flu, pneumonia, and almost died, at least it felt like it. Come ye winds and Hurricanoes...(Lear.)

Same here.

I let my doc talk me into it (over 40, paraplegic with a bone marrow transplant), and 4 days later I'm in the hospital!

As hard as she tries to convince me (says it was a coincident), never again!

[Pharmboy]

...or at least the flight crews will.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

Any airflow away from you must be compensated by airflow towards you.

Yes...but the way the fan is situated, there are no humans in the area from where it would draw air. Only a wall. Even if it were to circulate nasties past me...the key word is still 'circulate'. Which is a much better verb to use with the noun 'air' than the word 'stagnate'.

Unless, of course, you are making a case for me being the superior human I have always suspected myself to be. Then I agree with you wholeheartedly.

[Laserman]

The goal here is to generate research funding, not actually be truthful about potential health risks. Just like the global warming crisis bunch!

[AntiGuv]

I wish the late 60s were on your chart. That's when we had the last pandemic (I forget what year) although it wasn't nearly as severe as the 1918 episode.

[AntiGuv]

That took about three-four generations though. I wouldn't want to be the ones that had to live through the interregnum (assuming one lived through it) to see the benefits on the other side..

[RightWhale]

cytokine storm

dig in or move inland?

[hosepipe]

Ugh oh! someone down at Pandemics R'US is smokin dope again..

[pandemic_1918]

>>Uh-oh; we're gonna get screwed unless we close the borders.<<

Remember, avian flu is just one flight away, in every sense of the word (duck hunters - lock & load)

http://www.recombinomics.com/wild_H5N1.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>However, viruses can mutate very quickly, while the human immune system adapts to them more slowly<<

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_mating_mutating.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>This issue may turn into quite a flap.<<

I think so

http://www.recombinomics.com/pandemic_potential.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>One percent of the ill would die. That would equate to 1/3rd of one percent of the world population<<

The case fatality rate for H5N1 is in the 70-80% range

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

WHO projections on deaths are VERY conservative

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

and 1 Billion deaths are possible applying the fatality rate to the number infected.