Beam me to Planet Gore !
Posted on 07/18/2008 12:21:24 PM PDT by jpl
It will be interesting indeed to see how plays out in the months ahead.
bump for later
Thanks.
A late start to the new SC - not unusual.
A weak beginning to the new SC - not unusual.
Several 20+ day periods of no sunspot activity during a minimum - not unusual.
A record-breaking low Solar Flux - it can happen.
All of these things happening at once - unusual.
All of these things happening when we’re due for another LIA - concerning.
I do not think that is the case. Depends on your definition of start I suppose. Some would say that we are both in cycle 23 and 24 now (overlap), but others would contend cycle 24 does not really start until cycle 23 stops. Either way, currently cycle 23 sunspots are much more numerous (even at these very low levels). I think we have not had even 10 total cycle 24 sunspots as of yet.
Hathaway and Hansen are rooting for cycle 24 sunspots, otherwise all their hysteria about global warming and revisions of past temperature averages will have been in vane. Hard to convince the citizens that they are in danger from global warming when they are freezing their arses off!
I think we’re talking more like 2-3’. But it’s enough.
I’m more concerned with cloud coverage. One theory is that solar winds block cosmic rays from reaching earth. Cosmic rays help form clouds. Less active sun = more cosmic rays = more clouds.
Last year we had a *very* rainy spring and early summer here in Texas. A “drought-buster” they called it. For about three months the vegetation didn’t grow well at all, even with all that water. We simply didn’t have enough sunlight to allow things to grow. Later that summer the clouds finally parted and everything grew like crazy.
We need moisture, sunlight and heat for plants to thrive. During a LIA, the last two things are in short supply. Growing seasons are shorter and plants either won’t germinate or are stunted when they do.
Remember, it doesn’t have to get very cold for an ice age. We just need a slight drop in temperature, a lot more clouds, and a lot more moisture and we’re in the soup.
Well, that’s twice that you’ve given me great info. Thanks!
No problem. I’m here to help. :-)
Hansen is, at best a nut. At worst, he’s a criminal. He has his own agenda and will warp the data to fit his own warped view of the world.
He’s no scientist. He’s a political activist and should be removed form his post.
We live in interesting times. I always wondered what radio propagation would be like during Maunder Minimum-like conditions (I know, very poor). Looks like I may find out just how bad. But there are worse things to worry about. A mini ice age would be devastating enough - I cannot really imagine a big ice age.
Temperature on Earth wont be significantly affected until around the time that the Sunspot number peaks. Then as it starts to fall, that is when the real warming affects occur. To understand how this is possible, look at what happens during our summer here within the US. The hottest times start when the suns photoperiod (length of time the sun is in the sky per day) has peaked and starts to decrease. So we are in for another cold winter 08/09 and a cooler summer 09 followed by another cold winter 09/10 followed by possibly a mild summer 10 and mild winter 10/11. Then what happens depends on the magnitude of the solar activity peak. What could change this is massive underwater volcanic eruptions that led to an El Nino. That is a crap shoot however.
“The BIG concern (which I also do not share) is that we are due to enter another big ice age.”
I also suspect that we could be entering a Maunder Type Minimum period. On the other hand if the 88 year pattern of the 11 year cycle is still operational, then we should have terrible heat type problems 88 years after the droughts of the Great Depression.
Having observed catastrophic information for some time, I am of the opinion that each of the rapid drops of the past Ice Ages may have been caused by a major boloid strike, such as the one that is currently being suggested for the Younger Dryas cooling of 13,000 years ago. The most recent National Geographic (with Iran on the cover) has an article on the danger of asteroids and comets, and in particular Apophis which is due to pass nearby in 2029, and if it were deflected the wrong way, could be a nightmare in 2036. Current odds are 1 to 45,000 for catastrophe. The article further points out that currently, “The number of experts working on deflecting objects would roughly staff a couple shifts at a McDonald’s.” Perhaps we should be urging our Congress critters and president to assign a few more people to this task.
The Little Ice Age:
How Climate Made History 1300-1850
by Brian M. Fagan
Paperback
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:’)
Thanks!
It seems the Gore-Hansen Minimum is still not going strong.
It's all good.
You’re welcome!
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