McCain is Winning --Here is the Proof

Regular Folks United ^ | October 28, 2008 | Evan Sayet

[AndyTheBear]

The pollsters use data from the number of registrations for different parties in the local area. For instance if in your county you happen to have 75% democrat registration then the polls will represent 75% democrats.

Are you sure they don't try to tweak them further?

So if Acorn is out there stuffing the registration rolls with cartoon characters and household pets then you’re going to get an oversampling of democrats.

Unless Acorn can get somebody to actually vote under these names.

[garbanzo]

As best I know there seems to be NO pollster just reporting the raw, random sample. Everyone is weighting by party ID this cycle. If someone knows of a pure random sample getting reported, speak up.

That's kind of what I'd like to see. Averaging polls might be a better approach with the raw samples than the weighted ones.

[Screaming_Gerbil]

"How many Obama Primary voters will NOT vote Obama in the General?"

Well, there will be a lot more of those on the Democrat side than the Republican side, that's for sure.

Just one of the factors - other than the political correctness factor that causes people to refuse to imply they are not going to vote for the black man - that is going to result in a surprise for everyone who really thinks Obama is going to walk away with this election.

[Canedawg]

B O is yelling and waving his finger in his recent speeches.

I have noticed that too, and that is from the very, very small amont of TV I have watched the past few weeks. It's a sharp difference between the "coolness" of his speaking patterns many speak of. He's been loud and vociferous, and not cool at all.

[AndyTheBear]

If someone knows of a pure random sample getting reported, speak up.

Sounds like a tough polling job.

Randomly choosing names from a set is the easy part. Compiling a set of voters to randomly select from would probably be much harder. And then you would have to take a very large sampling...and make absolutely sure you get the opinion of everyone selected...including those nearly impossible to reach.

[Terpfen]

I’m sure you think Murtha calling his constituents racist was planned as well.

Democrats are not as smart as you make them out to be.

[NoControllingLegalAuthority]

The polls are assuming more Democrats will show up and vote than Republicans.

The polls are ignoring the huge percentage of Democrats who will show up and vote McCain/Palin.

[NoControllingLegalAuthority]

Democrats are not as smart as you make them out to be.

...which is why they have to lie about their true intentions. If their principles were appealing to the majority, they could simply and proudly admit, "Yes, we are going to spread the wealth around and tell you how to live your lives."

[jslade]

bump for later.

[AndyTheBear]

The polls are ignoring the huge percentage of Democrats who will show up and vote McCain/Palin.

While that is a nice thought, I have a hard time seeing how this would be missed by the polls.