Global warming? More doubts

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review ^ | March 21, 2009 | Masthead Editorial

[cogitator]

I'll believe in a model when they have one that can reproduce the historical data.

Posted to another ongoing thread, which is why I have it handy on my desktop:

Ensemble Climate Simulations With Anthropogenic and Natural Forcings

Here's the last sentence, in case you're tempted to not click on the link: "The ensemble of experiments with all four forcings yields a time-varying global mean surface air temperature response that closely resembles that observed during all portions of the 20th century."

Is that satisfactory, sir?

[TigersEye]

I said it here a couple of days ago; Beware of Global Stasis!

But I get the feeling these scientists don't know what 'stasis' means.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[BIGLOOK]

Your days and nights are colder than in years before. But what do remember from year to year, We remember holidays and get togethers, times that warm our spirits no matter the weather.

The Global Warming agenda proffers computer generated models that haven't matched any real time weather patterns in years. Edward Lorenz's theory was correct and like any theory, ambiguous. Reality cures most false notions pretty damn quickly but this one has legs.

Haven't seen much on the La Nina effect in the Pacific region, haven't seen reports from the navigation services that track hazards in the Atlantic and South Pacific that occur during calving in the respective summer months.

La Nina is here where I'm at. It's chilly and damp. It's been that way before and it'll be this way again in the future when the solar sun spot activity diminishes. We can't conrol the climate...and seems we can't control stupidity either.

Bringing this up because I saw the price tag on a new Chevy Volt. $40 grand for a mid size sedan. Figure in time to charge on your electric meter and the latest 'Cap and Trade' proposals from Obama and congress, this is out of reach for most home budgets. Maybe all.

[neverdem]

"The first ensemble includes time-varying forcing from greenhouse gases only. In the remaining three ensembles, forcings from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability, and volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere are added progressively, such that the fourth ensemble uses all four of these forcings."

Is that satisfactory, sir?

Sorry, but no luck. It ignores water vapor, various cloud effects, etc.

[ModelBreaker]

“I’ll believe in a model when they have one that can reproduce the historical data. “

Their models have hundreds of settable parameters. It would be childs play to make them reproduce the past by adjusting the parameters so that thay do fit the past. Past “predictions” of answers you already know is not especially impressive. I know. I’m in the modeling business. I bulid models for a living.

As to future projections, I don’t find it very impressive if they just say it’s going to keep getting warmer jut the way it has been in the recent past. If that’s your hypothesis, you don’t need a big ol’ model. A ruler and a pencil drawing a line thru post tempratures and projecting them forward does a fine job in that situation.

What would be impressive would be a model that predicted a surprising change in advance. So had one of he AGW models called in 1997 that in two years, the globe would start cooling, that would be impressive and I would have to start taking that model more seriously. But mostly what they do is get their predictions wrong and then go back to adjust the models to fix the error. Basically, that are straining to save epicycles with one bandaid after another.

[andyandval]

What kind of paper is the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Fellow FReeper Salena Zito writes for that paper.

So, Salena, what kind of paper is it?

:)

[Red Dog #1]

We chuckle about how our ancestors superstitious beliefs, but future generations won't think much better of us.

[xcamel]

FReepmail me to get on or off

Ping me if you find one I've missed.

---

[CholeraJoe]

Vindication!

[uglybiker]

Can you say "global stasis" or "global cooling"?

Climate stagnation! Eeeeevil capitalists and their SUVs are preventing the climate from changing!

But it's nothing that a few trillion taxpayer dollars couldn't fix.

[Chode]

listen... warming, cooling, it was 50/50. so i took a shot!!!

Ohh WOE is me... whys everybody pickin on me???

[hinckley buzzard]

It is straightforward to argue that a climate with significant internal variability is a climate that is very sensitive to applied anthropogenic radiative anomalies

This is an example of the well-known "save-the-grant-money" quote. Catalog it with "more research is needed." Obviously, a huge system with high variability will be less susceptible to miniscule imfluences, not more. If you doubt it, go out in a raging river sometime and hold out your arms-- see what impact you have.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks BIGLOOK.

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[Monkey Face]

HAH! Don’t ever let it be said that I said, “I told ya so!”
*snort*

How much money did he rake in in the meantime?

[grey_whiskers]

with what is undoubtedly a much simpler computer model than the global warming model.

Model my ass.

Look out the window or call up a friend who lives 500 miles to the West, to get tomorrow's weather.

Cheers!

[SunkenCiv]

Two handled shovel, or maybe a backhoe.

[GOPJ]

Thanks for the ping.