But you want to know the thing that really bothers me about the graph? It doesn't look like a sinusoid. The range from 2002 through present looks more like a decaying exponential. And that would be very bad.
Posted on 08/20/2009 11:29:36 PM PDT by ReadTheLaw
You need to include the real story with that David Hathaway graph. That is at least the 6th adjustment to the predicted solar cycle since 2006. It was originally predicted to ramp quickly in the middle of 2007 to a significantly stronger cycle than the previous (23). Every few months it got extended a few months. Finally some time at the end of 2008 the predictions started showing a progressively smaller maximum. Now, instead of being the largest cycle of all time, it is shown to be much smaller than cycle 23. The ramp up was once again moved at the begining of July. With the spot count likely to be zero for august, look for yet another update of the prediction at the begining of October, moving the goal post once again. But I’m not kidding, NASA has changed that graph about every 3 months. Last year at this time, it showed the ramp up in september of 2008 just as now it shows the ramp up in september of 2009.
“LITTLE ice ages are caused by ordinary variations in the suns output and the evidence indicates that we’re in the second summer of a second little ice age now.”
Right on.
But you want to know the thing that really bothers me about the graph? It doesn't look like a sinusoid. The range from 2002 through present looks more like a decaying exponential. And that would be very bad.
looks more like a decaying exponentialThey all (the cycle downside) look like that; the process that produces the 'sun spots'* looks to have a mechanism akin to R-C or relaxation cyclic behavior... rather than strictly oscillatory (tuning for or resonant L-C circuit) behavior.
* Greatly simplyfing things, I realize.
You need to include the real story with that David Hathaway graph. That is at least the 6th adjustment to the predicted solar cycle since 2006Bingo!
Also, an interesting discusion more than just a few people might find informative:
wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/noaa-swpc-solar-cycle-24-prediction-update-released-may-8-2009
Note also a panel was involved in making some of these predictions.
Good observation - the projection does not match the historical data.
How long ago and who was it built the wharf on Easter Island...when ocean-level was how many feet higher...?
A very good point and question.
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