Scientists and Weathercasters at Odds on Warming

New York Times ^ | March 29, 2010 | Leslie Kaufman

[TXnMA]

On a personal note -- I'll show my ignorance re your tagline: "PK"?

(I've been in some of the others' silos...)

[OldMissileer]

On a personal note -- I'll show my ignorance re your tagline: "PK"? (I've been in some of the others' silos...)

Peacekeeper. The Odd Squad at Malmstrom AFB. Now off Alert.

[OldMissileer]

Peacekeeper. The Odd Squad at Malmstrom AFB. Now off Alert.

Sorry. Not the Odd Squad. That was the Deuce Squadron like my Wing at Grand Forks. It was the Peacekeeper ICBM though.

[Ditto]

Climatologists are almost always affiliated with universities...

...and rely 100% on Government funding for their livelihoods. They will be long dead before their disaster scenarios will be proven wrong by history. They are free to forecast any damn thing they choose to and they never have to live with their mistakes.

The humble TV weather man, on the other hand, only has to get the forecast right most of the time for the next day, or next week, in order to keep his job. People actually do rely on what he says, not just for picnics or golf, but for business. If he screws up, it can cost lots of money, or even lives!

The fact is, while the 'university PhDs with their big grants and billion dollar computer models keep calling it wrong season after season, (where did all the hurricanes they called for go?) the humble TV weather forecasters get it right most of the time. When they miss a big event, they are toast.

They are not perfect, but at least they are applying proven scientific principles to a mathematically 'chaotic' equation. They are not using questionable 'models' based on unproven theories and cooked historical data intentionally spiked to show a linear response that has never once been demonstrated to be accurate.

I take Joe Bustardi, the weather guy, over Michael Mann any day. Interestingly, they are both at Penn State.

[marktwain]

One of the big difference is that meteorologists work with models, understand how models work, and know how models need to be validated.

The global climate models cannot be validated because they have essentially only one “run” to validate against. Daily weather models have hundreds of runs a year to validate against, and are being improved all the time, based on what is really happening.

Meteorologists know that this cannot be done with climate for at least hundreds of years, so the models only show what the modelers think they should show.

[TXnMA]

Thanks! I’ll reveal my antiquity:the silos I was in were Titans — and they were under construction... ;-)

[OldMissileer]

I was a Combat Crewmember, BMAT, in the Titan II weapon system in the 70s and early 80s. McConnell AFB, Wichita, KS.

[TXnMA]

I also was USAF at the time (1961)- but was just on “visiting fireman” tours (from Lowry to Buckley) — before the silos were occupied...