Scientists Warn California Could Be Struck By Winter ‘Superstorm’

Yahoo News ^ | 17 Jan 2011 | Liz Goodwin

[jiggyboy]

Ah, now I see they claim giant floods have happened every 200 or 400 years or so since the year 212. I was just going from recent articles on the 1860 flood.

[Amos McCoy]

This is the information that Yahoo used to write their story on.
I grabbed it from U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1312

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens.

This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.

Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability.

The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation.

These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

This is the information that Yahoo used to write their story on.
I grabbed it from U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1312

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens.

This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.

Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability.

The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation.

These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

[Redcloak]

I just knew washing my truck was a bad idea.

[Doofy]

Noah’s flood rained for 40 days and 40 nights.

The California Great Flood of 1861-1862 rained for 45 days straight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862

Since “official” weather records weren’t kept back then, it’s never used to compare modern “record breaking” rainfall events.

When it happens again (and it will) every city in the central valley, including Sacramento, will be destroyed.

[oneolcop]

I look at it this way: If the Kahlifornia “winter superstorm” hits, it’ll wipe out far more liberals than conservatives. Seems like a good deal to me.

[nuke rocketeer]

RUN!! RUN!! The sky is falling!!!

[colorado tanker]

It would be The Storm That Ate Malibu. Maybe the Hollywood crowd could invent a new ribbon to wear at the Oscars - to be held in Palmdale.

[greatplains]

Sounds like “disaster Saturday” on SciFi (oh, ‘scuse me, SyFy).

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Even larger storms happened in past centuries, over the dates 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605, according to geological evidence.

The risk is gathering momentum now, scientists say, due to rising temperatures in the atmosphere, which has generally made weather patterns more volatile.

(((((drum roll))))

Such a superstorm is hypothetical but not improbable, climate researchers warn. "We think this event happens once every 100 or 200 years or so, which puts it in the same category as our big San Andreas earthquakes," Geological Survey scientist Lucy Jones said in a press release.

[Carry_Okie]

Of course, there isn't a word about the fact that we now have a system of dams (that the same government wants to blow up) that we did not have in the 1860s.

The awesome stench of the greatest future real estate racket in history continues to develop. My dad used to finance such flood control projects in the "Inland Empire" where the current real estate crash shows us the future of the one they have in store, only it will be bigger. Such infrastructure projects are ALWAYS for the purpose of making otherwise dodgy future investments profitable; they are NEVER about protecting current infrastructure.

Now that the big real estate crooks in the RINO-CRAT Party (Times Mirror and Southern Pacific in particular) have used the Delta Smelt to take farmland at pennies on the dollar from those who've held it for forty years hoping to do the same thing, now that they've assured a massive profit on "insta-cities," adjacent to the stops along their massive and publicly-subsidized "high-speed-rail" project, now they want existing taxpayers to pony up for the cost of flood control so that they can build houses on otherwise economically undevelopable land and cash in.

It's flat. It's cheap. Let's build. Here comes another 20 million people.

[Patton@Bastogne]

funding must be “pretty low” for the scientific community ... they’re starting to get really embarrassing ...

[Patton@Bastogne]

funding must be “pretty low” for the scientific community ... they’re starting to get really embarrassing ...

[dragnet2]

People in Ohio are concerned about weather in California? LOL!

Too funny!

[edpc]

People in Ohio are concerned about weather in California?

Can't speak for others here, but as for me, not especially. More concerned with the Chicken Little mentality of "scientists" and "climate experts." Generally, they use it as a way to push unwanted reforms and reach into other people's pockets.

[markomalley]

Thought you two might be interested in this item.

[Quix]

THX.Joya had noticed it on yahoo.

Will check it out.

WHAT PART of California would be most heavily influenced?

[Joya]

I searched for this by title after seeing it on Yahoo! and couldn’t find it, I am NOT fond of the FR search feature, it is a pain. Ugh.

Anyway.

Thanks for the thread.

[markomalley]

Here is the report referenced: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/

[InternetTuffGuy]

The Superstorm is thought be be six inches taller than a regular storm and carries a jar of marmalade around with it on its flying Harley.

[edpc]

True, there are dams in place that did not exist in the 1800s. However, if there were a similar storm today, I don’t know if they could handle the floodwaters. I remember the Conowingo Dam was threatened in 1972 after Agnes rolled through the Mid-Atlantic, dumping 12-16 inches of rain.