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Texas May Cost Trump 2020 (Texas turning purple?)
The Hill ^ | July 4, 2019 | Kristin Tate, opinion contributor

Posted on 07/04/2019 8:40:33 PM PDT by nwrep

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To: nwrep

Actually, I think there is a stronger likelihood of the democrat party splitting than states turning purple.

The democrat party has been involved in identity politics for close to 50 years. While it has increased over time, in the last 10 years democrat party has accelerated this at reckless abandon speed. They are catering to the 10-20 percent of the far left base. This is not sustainable, especially over the long run. They are alienating many voters from independents and especially those in their own party.

I see a major split soon. The far left will continue its radical trajectory and the new party will stay more in the middle left of the political spectrum. What will result is a 3-party system which in this case, is good for America. The democrat/far left party will be split and will change city/county/state/federal races for good. It will be more difficult for the dems to regain control anywhere.


141 posted on 07/05/2019 7:38:43 AM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: Repeal 16-17
Texas becoming a Blue State is just as likely California becoming a Red State. Ain’t gonna happen.

You are aware California used to be a red state, right? It used to be solidly conservative.

Are you aware that Texas' four largest cities; Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin have Democrat mayors? Look it up.

It is happening.

142 posted on 07/05/2019 7:43:22 AM PDT by Drew68
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To: nwrep

If you look at the exit polling on Cruz/Robert Francis, Cruz led Robert Francis with non-native Texans, and native Texans favored Robert Francis.

Newcomers to Texas are making the state even redder. They are disenfranchised conservatives or libertarians coming here.

“Texas turning blue” is just liberal nonsense to distract us from playing offense in California, New York, etc., and to keep us on the defensive.


143 posted on 07/05/2019 8:02:13 AM PDT by ksm1
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To: nwrep

Believe it or not. Texas is a high vote fraud state. I would not be surprised if the vote fraud becomes so high with the illegals and all that the deep state flips the color.


144 posted on 07/05/2019 8:09:59 AM PDT by Revel
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To: Drew68

Sure; all of those said that Hillary would win easily in 2016.

The author’s false characterization of 2018 is independent of any analysis.


145 posted on 07/05/2019 8:14:25 AM PDT by Olog-hai ("No Republican, no matter how liberal, is going to woo a Democratic vote." -- Ronald Reagan, 1960)
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To: Theoria

That’s characterizing illegals that vote Democrat as legitimate votes. With all due respect, your stance suggests that all we can do in the face of this is go back to wringing hands.


146 posted on 07/05/2019 8:16:03 AM PDT by Olog-hai ("No Republican, no matter how liberal, is going to woo a Democratic vote." -- Ronald Reagan, 1960)
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To: Steamburg
Austin is not Texas. Travis County is not Texas.

And Portland is not Oregon but they rule the state anyway. From Reagan to Newsom in 52 years, laugh away folks.

147 posted on 07/05/2019 8:59:11 AM PDT by itsahoot (Welcome to the New USA where Islam is a religion of peace and Christianity is a mental disorder.)
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To: Sheapdog

Well, they had me fooled! I don’t know how we can stop massive DNC election fraud if nobody in authority will.


148 posted on 07/05/2019 9:10:16 AM PDT by \/\/ayne (I regret that I have but one subscription cancellation notice to give to my local newspaper.)
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To: Persevero
>>>It is good to foresee problems. It is not good to decide you are defeated in advance.

I just look at what's happened recently and look at the demographic projections for the future. I look at other states (like California) and what has happened to them and the fact a lot of those people are moving to places like Austin.

In 2014, Cornyn, who really isn't that well liked by the base (and it was an off election year like it was in 2018) beat his opponent by 27% and 1.8 million votes. With the right candidate (appealing to their base) and a dull (but far more CONSERVATIVE) candidate in Cruz, he eeked out a victory in 2018 by 2.5% and only 215K votes just 4 years later. I promise you Cornyn will not win by 27% in 2020 no matter who the dims run against him. He will win - but they could run an illegal latino prostitute and she would not lose by 27% today.

Romney won by 16% and 1.2 million votes in 2012. Trump? 9% and 800K against a terrible candidate in Hillary Clinton. Mcstain won by 12% and a million in 2008. Do the math.

For all the talk about how much Texas loves Trump - he did worse again Clinton than Romney did against Obama. It's not that he's a worse candidate - it's demographics.

149 posted on 07/05/2019 9:11:19 AM PDT by NELSON111 (Congress: The Ralph Wolf and Sam Sheepdog show. Theater for sheep. My politics determines my "hero")
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To: Vaden
>>>Trump’s victory margin is well within the historic fluctuation for Texas but is narrow

ing compared to Bush and Romney.

And that's the problem. When you look at the shifts in the years from 2012 - 2018 (when the young hispancs that have graduated HS and now are voting and the transplants have moved in), you see a new trend starting to emerge.

Cornyn won by 27% and Cruz by 2 1/2. Now granted - these are two different races and candidate but it doesn't account for an almost 25% difference in outcome in just 4 years. Then there is Romney-Trump correlations between 2012-2016...with Trump losing 5% of Romney's vote and a 450K vote differential against an AWFUL candidate.

150 posted on 07/05/2019 9:25:54 AM PDT by NELSON111 (Congress: The Ralph Wolf and Sam Sheepdog show. Theater for sheep. My politics determines my "hero")
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To: nwrep

Immigrants! Don’t Vote for What You Fled
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10uX2EhSflA

I’d say that’s true whether it is someone from Mexico or California.


151 posted on 07/05/2019 9:29:51 AM PDT by tbw2
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To: monkeyshine
Truman was a hard drinking, smoking, poker playing deal-making, pay-to-play backstabbing SOB (his era's version of Clinton, but not as slick nor as ego-motivated).

You could tell all that by the lavish lifestyle he displayed after leaving office.

Oh wait he refused SS protection and moved into his Mother In Law's house. Yep just like the Clintons. </s>

152 posted on 07/05/2019 9:44:13 AM PDT by itsahoot (Welcome to the New USA where Islam is a religion of peace and Christianity is a mental disorder.)
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To: familyop
Many people will vote for the perceived winner in an election.

An often overlooked phenomenon, but a real one. People don't want to throw away their vote by voting for a loser. Crazy I know but something I encountered many years ago.

153 posted on 07/05/2019 9:50:39 AM PDT by itsahoot (Welcome to the New USA where Islam is a religion of peace and Christianity is a mental disorder.)
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To: TheStickman
FUD

Abandon ship! Don't be crazy, the Titanic is unsinkable.

154 posted on 07/05/2019 9:51:58 AM PDT by itsahoot (Welcome to the New USA where Islam is a religion of peace and Christianity is a mental disorder.)
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To: nwrep

Trump should fight for California. The democrats are committing political suicide in California.

California is ripe for the picking.

Wouldn’t that make election night exciting if we had to wait for California?

This would help Trump with the popular vote as well?


155 posted on 07/05/2019 10:01:54 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: nwrep

Anchor babies grow up and vote...


156 posted on 07/05/2019 11:03:43 AM PDT by DBeers (The concept of peace in Islam requires not co-existence but submission.)
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To: Jrabbit

Sadly I have to say the Texas GOP is very silent. IT’s like they are taking TExas for granted while libs are gunning for it. I’ve tried to bring it to the attention of that group, and Cruz and Cornyn.

I am a little worried about. Austin has gone to hell due to lib influence.


157 posted on 07/05/2019 11:21:03 AM PDT by austinaero
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To: thinkthenpost

“I don’t understand all the grudge-holding with Sen. Cruz,...”

Some people may hold grudges, but the real issue with Ted Cruz was not his stubborn failure to concede to Donald Trump, or any doubts about whether he was conservative enough - the real problem was that a lot of people - even Republicans - find him generally unappealing.

As a white Right wing male in my mid 60s, if I thought he came off as “icky” and a little too preachy - almost like a smarmy religious right Elmer Gantry type - then how is he going to get independents and Democrats to cross over to win a general election. As weak as President Trump made her look as a candidate, Hillary Clinton would have mopped the floor with Ted Cruz.

It is not about grudges - Cruz just wasn’t the right pick - he doesn’t have a speck of whatever it is that President Trump has.


158 posted on 07/05/2019 11:42:07 AM PDT by enumerated
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To: thinkthenpost

“I don’t understand all the grudge-holding with Sen. Cruz,...”

Some people may hold grudges, but the real issue with Ted Cruz was not his stubborn failure to concede to Donald Trump, or any doubts about whether he was conservative enough - the real problem was that a lot of people - even Republicans - find him generally unappealing.

As a white Right wing male in my mid 60s, if I thought he came off as “icky” and a little too preachy - almost like a smarmy religious right Elmer Gantry type - then how is he going to get independents and Democrats to cross over to win a general election? As weak as President Trump made her look as a candidate, Hillary Clinton would have mopped the floor with Ted Cruz.

It is not about grudges - Cruz just wasn’t the right pick - he doesn’t have a speck of whatever it is that President Trump has.


159 posted on 07/05/2019 11:44:00 AM PDT by enumerated
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To: nwrep

Bull. Leftists were trying to sell this nonsense in 2016 with predictable results.


160 posted on 07/05/2019 11:46:17 AM PDT by Future Snake Eater (Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. - Dwight Eisenhower, 1957)
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