This Sounds Wrong but AP is reporting "More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study"

Associated Press ^ | April 21 | MARILYNN MARCHIONE

[TexasGurl24]

The AssPress is worse than CNN.

[wastoute]

Thanks again. Read through the pdf once over, one criticism: they mention “tests: standard laboratory”. Now we know there are umpteen tests out there with results all over the place this is a mistake. The really need to specify WHICH tests. Did all the patients get the same tests or did they use several? Which groups got which tests? This failure just throws everything into question.

Also, on the face of it being “retrospective” doesn’t bother me but the numbers are troubling. We know the CFR is somewhere between 0.5% and 5%. An order of magnitude, perhaps but both numbers are pretty small. We know that Plaquenil alone in healthy people can be expected to kill around 0.05 to 0.08% and if it isn’t “ten times safer than CHloroquine” even higher. So the Number Needed to Treat is going to be well over 100 patients in each group or Plaquenil is an even worse drug than I thought.

Since they were comparing treatment regimens they made no effort to determine their “treated” vs Untreated fatality rate. This study isn’t large enough to do that so we don’t really have a handle on whether they reached the NNT or not but their Confidence Intervals clearly suggest a statistical outcome that supports “rejection of the null hypothesis” ie, that the drugs work (rejection meaning the drugs don’t work). It will be real interesting to see the criticisms of real Infectious Disease doctors. UVA and SOuth Carolina Med are pretty prestigious institutions. I can’t imagine they would put their names on trash.

Also they reference their statistical method, ANOVA I am familiar with the “Fine and Gray method for addressing bias I am totally unfamiliar with offhand.

This paper would seem to be bad for the drug treatment group. Let’s see how it stands up to criticism. As above i have a couple minor ones. It should be interesting to spend more time reading through the details.

[Vermont Lt]

Can we all simply wait for the real trials to be completed?

If the docs want to use it they can. I’ve heard this on the morning rounding calls over my wife’s shoulder. It IS being used.

So, if the docs want to use it...most of them have.

But, an accurate, standardized, clinical trial has not been completed yet in the US.

Once that comes out, let the chips fall where they may.

But this hysteria about handing this out like Pez is not helping and it spreads misinformation.

[kiryandil]

The damage to the other organs was probably caused by hypoxia.

Even though the AssPress propagandist kept as much relevant information out of the article as she could.

I'm going to go to her Twitter feed after this and I WILL find out that she's Resistance.

[gas_dr]

Well here you are again
I am a doctor on the frontline in critical care and I have seen impressive turnaround within 12 hours of administration. Also not that this study does not appears to include azthromycin combo

[Irish Eyes]

Have they forgotten about the Dem congress woman who praised Trump for the drugs when she recovered?

the MSM very quickly swept that under the rug.

[CodeToad]

Well, don’t they know all the uneducated and inexperienced scientists and doctors on FR know better?? /s

[Sarah Barracuda]

Every single person who has been interviewed said that the drug combo worked..because Trump mentioned it, it must be disproven, that is how the commie left works..they want a vaccine because vaccine make BILLIONS of dollars and this drug is cheap

[Sarah Barracuda]

Of course they do, I figured that out a long time ago..the commie left LOVES this virus because if it kills Trump supporters its a win

[Norseman]

While I share your opinion of the AP, this is a report of a study. The study is available, and I don’t see where the AP is misrepresenting the results, so it seems we should be focusing on the study itself, not the AP.

[Norseman]

There’s a link in the article.

[LeonardFMason]

I wouldn’t believe AP if they told me water is wet.

AMEN!

[5by5]

Meta-analysis based on VA hospital admissions.

No mention of zinc.

Also, no mention of why some got HC, some got HC + AZ, some got AZ and some none at all.

If only the most severe got HC and or AZ then the cohorts can’t be compared.

The fact that these were people admitted to the hospital suggests that the disease was well advanced.

[billyboy15]

“But, I am not surprised that it ended up not really helping”

WTF! What about the NY Dr who has treated well over 1000 patients with Hydroxychlorine + Zinc and had a successful result in almost every one of them. What about the French study of now over 2000 patients which also reported amazing results using the HCQ but without Zinc (apparently the French have a high zinc diet)?

You read ONE study which evens says in it that it “wasn’t vigorous” and you come to the conclusion that the drug doesn’t work?

Really?

[GreenLanternCorps]

Exactly. The drug has potential, but it needs to be studied PROPERLY. Multiple peer reviewed experiments, with the data out for everyone to see.

The President mentions it has potential, and his opponents accuse him endangering people with quack cures and try to ban it, and too many of his supporters tout it as a miracle cure. It simply has potential.

The whole thing has been ridiculous.

[null and void]

Worth repeating:

No Z pack or zinc too?

Apparently no vitamins C and D either, and HOCQ very late in the game when the patients were already quite, quite ill.

And I might add, first paragraph conflates the known side effects of chloroquine with the much safer HYDROXYchloquine.

Therefore Orange Man Bad.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[Redmen4ever]

After a quick read:

this is a retrospective study, not a controlled test. The groups differed significantly in risk factors, with the drug given to those with the higher risk. The correlation of outcomes with the drug is therefore due to “reverse causality.” Essentially, the risk factors caused the use of the drug.

In a mess like this, you would need some identifying variables:

Y = f(X, a, b, c, p, r, s)

X = f(Y, a, b, c, t, u, v)

The variables p, r, s (exogenous to the Y, X process) enable you to identify the effect of Y on X.

And, the variables t, u, v (also exogenous to the Y, X process) enable you to identify the effect of X on Y.

In English, sort of, something that effects Y that is not itself an effect of Y or X, can enable you to determine the effect of Y on X.

As an example, if certain VA hospital didn’t administer HC to anybody, that would really help to identify cause and effect.

[The_Media_never_lie]

This sounds rigged to me given all the other reports but and note that they report that "The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. "Claims more deaths from its use. but its being reported by every anti Trump and fear mongering outlet out there. What other holes do you see? I want to email Neil Cavuto who just reported it on Fox Business News and he skipped the part about it being not rigorous

---

Yesterday on Fox Radio News, the whole 5 minute segment was anti Trump tinged reporting. There was misinformation reported about the President vs. governors on testing, which was mis reported quoting the republican gov. of Ohio rebuking the president, and then 42,000 covid deaths in America, now with 25% of the worlds fatalities, a number the news reader was pulling out of thin air, which she could not have any idea if it was correct, but reporting it as fact. Honestly, these B team news readers have a bias, and I really believe they are not very bright.

[wastoute]

It actually does include the combo. One very legit criticism is since it’s the VA there were so few females they threw them out. Which is OK but any conclusions one may draw fro this paper should be limited to males. Which is a standard criticism of VA studies.

[RummyChick]

Then post your findings... There are plenty of Drs who have said they are not having any luck with it..and others that do.

oh since you have finally starting treating actual Covid patients who could DIE.. are you telling them they just have a cold when you they test positive?