Posted on 10/22/2020 6:25:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
A few reasons. 1) Dems are way more scared of the Wuhan Virus, 2) Pubbies historically out vote Dems on Election Day, 3) The Dems are tapping into their very reliable voters (4x4s) at a higher rate than Pubbies, 4) FL Dems so far have voted in higher numbers.
Yes, the numbers are at https://joeisdone.github.io/FloridaPrediction.html
To answer your questions directly:
In 2016, Republicans turned with 38% IPEV, 29.81% VBM, 31.84% Election Day.
In 2016, Dems turned out with 43.27% IPEV, 28.75% VBM, 27.98% Election Day.
The reason people are so focused on early voting is because of fear of COVID-19. COVID-19 fear has become pretty much partisan, with Dems being afraid of it and Reps much less so. So Dems are all rushing to VBM while Republican’s trust in VBM has dropped.
It is almost impossible to make exact prediction like we did in 2016, simply because voting patterns have been so upended. The error bars accumulate exponentially. You can read the above blog article if you want my attempt at predicting FL.
“Actually Graham said Biden just lost Pennsylvania because of the oil industry comment. He seemed very excited that this was the key moment of the debate. Perhaps...”
Biden certainly didn’t do himself any favors. PA will be won by a thin margin either way; a half point change either direction could be decisive. Mistakes like this can easily cost a candidate the election.
They had to have Obama campaign in freakin’ Philadelphia. I think they lost PA a while ago. Biden’s comment just seals that deal.
Is there vid? What exactly did he say?
I searched and found the clip (for another thread) and listened to Linda, again, a few times.
Turns out, he was saying, PA is GOWN for the Dems.....as in GONE, for the Dems.
With his drawl, it sounded like he said goin’ (going), for the Dems. He made it clear, what he was saying, later in the vid/interview. He said that ‘Joe gave away PA, several times, tonight’.
I’m sorry....I should’ve come back to this thread with my update.
Here’s the vid....
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6204063747001
He says the PA/big news around the 4:50 mark.
He gave me a scare! :- /
That’s okay, someone else came on the thread almost immediately to tell me what actually transpired. I am therefore withdrawing my lawsuit. :-p
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