Posted on 10/22/2020 6:25:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
I don’t believe in magic numbers, but I will say this: Democrats are WAAAAAAYYYY underperforming polling. 89% of Democrats say they will vote early, compared to only 67% of Republicans. Republicans are only supposed to edge Democrats on in-person early voting by 30-27, and they’re leading 45-39. They’re supposed to have 59% more votes by mail, and they only have 45% more returned, and only 25% more unreturned. (Republicans started out very slow to return, and are catching up.)
All this suggests that Democrats are HUGELY under-delivering on early voting. But will they show up ON Election Day? Or will Republicans fail to show up even worse on Election Day than Dems failed to mail in their ballots?
Absolutely no way EV totals exceed 5m.
Trust me. No way.
I maxed out the 5M+ NO bet.
It is 4.6-4.8 or 4.8-5.0.
I’m leaning 4.6-4.8m with a small bet there. I think numbers are heading towards 4.8m +/- 50k.
I nibbled at some 4.6-4.8 only because of the pricing and I think the 2 brackets should be closer to 50/50.
But I loaded up on 5m+ NO.
byecomey’s total shows 4,460,750 so far today.
Day started 4,256,102.
Thats 204k for 1/2 day. Double to 410k. Add in Miami/Sarasota. Less than 500k today.
That would put us on target for 4.756m.
With a chance to cross over 4.8m.
I’m big on 5m+ NO and small wager on 4.6-4.8m.
I see now. Yesterday the website for the contract showed 4,256,102 so today would need 544k to breach 4.8 M bracket.
Have we had a weekday exceed 500k in a day? I finally realized your website is not tracking the NPAs so I didn’t have complete daily breakouts.
The 4.6 - 4.8 at 0.25 looks tempting.
I think we did 580k yesterday.
4.6-4.8m is tempting at 25 cents. I bought some.
But could crossover 4.8m.
You can follow numbers with byecomey’s map
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
Click on Early Votes All.
Updates every 1/2 hour.
Trafalgar’s EV prediction: https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/796118715309899776/photo/1
He is just wrong on 2 states, WI, MN.
Otherwise he matches me.
That map seems about right. WI early voting supposedly doing well per TargetSmart. I’m iffy on PA.
My vote will count now toward holding back the dems. I went about an hour ago- early voting at my library. Line was 30 minutes. I’ve never voted early but working late on the 3rd and lines will be long.
It was orderly chaos- 6 feet apart and masks- hand sanitizer everywhere!
Seminole County, Florida.
I think you’re right. The CNN poll (yesterday) of Florida claimed that of those who have already voted, supported Biden by 71-27, but looking at the VBM+EV, it just doesn’t jive.
To get close to that split, Biden would have to win 100% of the DEM ballots cast (45%) + 100% of the NPA ballots cast (19%) + 8% of the REPUB ballots!!
Another indictor that that poll (and others) are just crap!
So far today, D combined lead down to 439,912 from 462,774.
Could be a better day than yesterday.
Did I miss something? That looked like T’s 2016 map.
Pretty much.
The current Florida IPEV map looks like the final 2016 Florida map.
Yesterday’s net gain was 24,023. I think it went as high as 28K before going down.
Today’s net gain is 24,405 so far. My guess is it’ll end up at 23K net or so.
I mean the Trafalgar US map
“I mean the Trafalgar US map”
Yep. I agree.
And
byecomey’s current IPEV Florida map looks pretty much like the final 2016 Florida map.
Only Duval is Blue instead of Red.
When Fox News called PA for President Trump I popped a bottle of Veuve Clicquot (orange label — about $60) at 3am or so.
Do you think I’d be able to open with a late dinner this time on Election Day? Or maybe even before Election Day?
Thank you for doing these every day, they have become must read for me.
My question: is there any concern that the great IPEV numbers we are seeing in Florida are going to start to take away from the republican election day turnout?
SCOTUS says PA can count ballots for 3 days after election.
I won’t be surprised if the networks refuse to call PA until those 3 days are up.
AZ has alot of VBM to count.
I bit fuzzy, but I think AZ counted for several days after election day in 2018 before Sinema won.
AZ and PA could be counting...
You might be enjoying that Champagne a few days after ED.
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