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Posted on 12/01/2021 11:58:53 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
but, as always....the college towns.
Is Ashland presently in the 4th? Corvallis?
I’ve a fair bit of family in rural Lane and in Douglas, so those two counties, along with Curry and Coos tend to dominate my view of the 4th, with Eugene being the equivalent of the liberal Democratic death star.
Does anyone on this thread besides gundog call the place home?
DeFazio is an Italian Catholic from New Jersey who looks like a penguin who fit the district about as well as a Rockefeller would fit Arkansas or West Virginia. American politics can be very strange, and they are both party oriented and local. My first vote for a Congressman was against him in his first run for re-election.
Oregon just gained a new seat, which means that the remaining five will be significantly impacted. According to 538, the new fourth is D+7.
While the Oregon legislature is pretty brain dead, I doubt that they would deliberately concede the pubs more than one seat.
BTW—gundog—is Linda Clem’s youngest boy, Brian, still in the state senate? I remember him as a loud-mouth 15 year old conservative in the late 80’s—but I guess he moved to Salem and got religion.
I take the D +7 back—It’s D+9. THe third most dem-leaning district in the state.
Looking at the map I guess the problem is that Portland is on the edge of the state and it is difficult to divide it between more than two Districts. If pubs win the 4th, in theory they ought to have a decent shot at both the 5th and the 6th. I can’t conceive of the pubs controlling the Oregon delegation 4-2.
Link to the 538 analysis
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/oregon/
DeFazio running for the hills.
DeFazio made pro-gun, pro-vet noises when he would visit the area, and he owns a tree farm in Springfield. That’s all it took with the legacy-Democrat voters. Just a flannel-shirt wearin’, tree-farmin’ man of the people. driving a 40 year old car. The only time I ever saw him, I was driving through Eugene. I stopped at a light, looked right...Rolls-Royce parked at the curb, looked left, Pete and some other guy having an al fresco lunch. Pete was wearing a navy blue suit from the Wayne LaPierre collection.
Retromingent! Wow. A new word. I looked it up and planning on using it
If you would like more information about what’s happening in Oregon, please FReepmail me. Please send me your name by FReepmail if you want to be on this list.
He’s got to be 70+ and there is a time to just move on. I wouldn’t count any chickens.
Drop dead the day after you retire Peter.
He spoke at an MHS assembly during his first run for re-election.
If Eugene nominates a loon that can’t make pro-gun pro-vet noises that trades in the flannel-shirt tor tie-dye will that be enough to tip it?
Net worth: $4mil.
I don’t remember the Skarlatos/DeFazio margin, but it was better the expected. Alek raised more money than Pete. Without benefit of name recognition and incumbency, I think the seat could flip.
This is such good news. I think I’ll have to get involved in next election. We may have a chance. Guess if you’re not in it, you can’t win it.
Sorry FRiends, under the current lines this would have been a pickup but it’s been ratmandered into a seat Biden won by I think 13. Oregon has supermajority quorum requirement but GOP knuckled under and showed up to vote after the rats agreed to make the seat the state gained a couple less points rat (we still probably won’t win it). GOP sued of course but a judge said no the other day and there will be no appeal.
I’d call it “likely rat” rather than safe only cause it’s open.
1 seat is OR is all we’re likely to get, focking disgusting. I’d have said you give us 2 GOP seats or eff and we’ll flee the state like the rats did in Texas.
this rat hss been 20 years overdue!!
Wow. Portland controls 4 congressional districts.
Yeah, the rats did a number on Oregon. It was one of their better gerrymanders. You are right, this would have been a pickup. It’s probably out of reach now.
Republicans in OR are suing because the OR Democrat legislature ostentatiously ignored the state’s parameters on redistricting by splitting Portland into three districts, including one reaching into the southern part of the state. We’ll see what happens.
Just heard it was 5 points
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