Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The center line of the current track is over my house. Just finished booking refundable rooms a short distance from the coastline. Goal is to escape storm surge. Can cancel by midnight Monday night if evacuation not necessary.
Wow I had no idea, it was that close.
My theory has always been that I was not upset when the target was directly on me five days out since those projections are nearly impossible to happen. I would say 75% of the time the track moves one way or the other. Chances are good it will in your case as well. It’s just too much of a leap to be that accurate in tracking some five or six days out.
Of course however you are doing the right thing preparing to the hilt.
I can still hear the sea grapes hitting the house like machine gun fire during Hurricane Irma. With a metal roof and kevlar hurricane screens for the windows, however, the top concern is storm surge with the storm approaching from the SW.
The GFS and Euro models are now initializing in the same location, while they continue to be disturbingly divergent in their tracks. Hopefully, they will arrive at more similar solutions by tomorrow.
A metal roof and kevlar screens is really good protection. I doubt if storm surge is reliably predictable until shortly before it hits.
Well we both agreed yesterday that Sunday would be a major information day,both our sources claimed it would be.
You know it. Being so close to the center line, a little jog in any direction makes a huge difference on the coast. Thus, the option to skedaddle is prudent if the waters threaten to rise on the dirty side of a major storm.
Good morning and thanks for the thread NN.
We’re heading to Sarasota on 10/3 for vacation. Prayers for all in the path of this.
I expect the track to change, but the prediction of Major (over 110 MPH) just before Tampa is worrying. We'll see...
(How do you make those hurricane drinks?) LOL.
Good move.
I remember once sitting at home in the middle of a hurricane when it reached a point that I realized...Holy Moly, I shouldn't have stayed. I made promises to myself during that storm. Scary...I don't lollygag around anymore.
I’ve learned that the best place to be is in the center of the projected path 5 days out - - it never goes there.
No question you have the plan and its good.
Sounds very strange(I claimed the same thing) but often you are correct. The odds on being perfect five days out are low.
Roger that!
Sarasota is a wonderful destination!
That is what we are hoping here, today.
Can’t wait to go! We just bought out my folks’ condo. I retire (from nursing) on 9/30 and then 8 weeks in Sarasota!
Congratulations for your retirement! I’m secretly jealous...
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