Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Oh great! That's right on my doorstep.
Ah, very good. Thanks!
Now that there is funny!
If landfall is at Venice, what does that mean for Tampa to the north?
Isn’t St Augustine beach on the Atlantic side up near Jacksonville? Or is this a different St Augustine beach on the Gulf side?
The conversion I use is 1.15 kts = 1 mph
Nauti - that’s now being debated by meterologists.....they’re saying couple hours apart....but DeSantis did say more Sarasota etc area.
All agree Sarasota County is going to be on the bad side of this.
That is a very major change in the projected storm track. For the past 24 hours Tampa-St. Pete was in the crosshairs. What is the basis for their new forecast?
Meet me @ Sharkey’s
I’m assuming that the strong cold front presently moving through Alabama is pushing it south more than expected.
They’re about two hours apart.....either or this beast is going to hit the entire coastal area....if in an evacualtion zone leave.
That’s like 60 or 80 miles south of yesterday, iirc.
“If landfall is at Venice, what does that mean for Tampa to the north?”
Nowhere near as bad as, say, 15 miles to the north of it. The spin CCW, so winds a bit to the east of the eye are the worst, as you add the speed of the whirlwind to the eyewall speed.
The winds to the east push the ocean water ahead of them. That’s storm surge. It can be brutal. Like a 13 foot slow wall of water coming up. With 120 mph wind going same direction. Ànd it’s in no rush to go back down.
In those conditions, there is no longer a boundary between sea and air. It’s more like 30 foot tall firehose of seawater and air. For hours.
Tampa might catch a seriously good break. Tampa Bay is a big pool of potential storm surge, kind of a funnel.
Another SE shift in the 12z model suite
If the forward speed slows any more, that will give the cold front more time to push further south.
Now there's an idea!
Because of the size of this Hurricane they’re saying the cold front won’t affect it as much as once thought possible.
Also if you look at Tues thru Wed. it’s going to drag along so lots of water on Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_mid
Cold front south pretty fast.
Thank you!
It blew through Indiana very fast yesterday.
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