Free Republic

The Constitution guarantees to each state a republican form of government.

Each state legislature has the power to determine how presidential electors are chosen, but that power must be fundamentally consistent with the existence of a republican form of government.

Divesting a state of its power to participate in presidential elections and purporting to transfer that power to other states (through the so-called national popular vote) is not consistent with a representative form of government, but rather is a despotic abnegation of self-government.

The point of all this for the Democrats of course is that the electoral college serves as a bulwark against voter fraud since the vote is by states. Massive vote fraud in Los Angeles can only swing California. They are tired of having to conduct vote fraud operations in Philly, Milwaukee, Fulton County, Maricopa County and elsewhere when they could accomplish the same thing by doing it just in LA or NYC on a massive scale.

I wonder if this was another ketamine drowning

Prigozhin thought he was untouchable because he knew all of Putin’s secrets and commanded great wealth through Wagner’s neo-colonial activities in Africa.

That General Surovikin, rumored to be in alliance with Prigozhin, was formally dismissed this week from his position and now the order given to shoot down the plane carrying Prigozhin and Utkin (the military leader of Wagner) means that the FSB/SVR cracked the secrets of Prigozhin, probably after torturing multiple underlings for information, and was now in a position to move on Wagner.

I think this means that there is a modus vivendi between Shoigu/Gerasimov and the Secret Police services (FSB/SVR) and therefore the Russian military was permitted by the latter to get their revenge for the shooting down of Russian military aircraft and the killing of Russian air servicemen by Wagner during the march on Moscow.

Remember, Putin is a career secret policeman who made himself Ruler-for-Life in Russia through assassinations and intimidation, theft and rewarding of supporters with graft, propaganda and control of the media and rigging elections.

Now that Putin is fading in terms of his energy and abilities, the power is shifting more to the secret police/intel agency organizations (not the military) through which power is exercised in Russia. (Our own federal police/intel agencies and MSM propaganda organs appear to aspire to the Russian way of doing things.)

I think this means there is a new stability in the coalition ruling Russia that they felt they could move against Wagner this way.

Note also that the Russian regime has successfully jailed Igor “Strelkov” Girkin who was effectively the thought leader of the rather large hardliner “patriotic” imperialist segment of Russian society with little or no consequence from his supporters.

There will be a lot of moves behind the scenes for the ruling coalition to grab control of Wagner’s African operations and wealth and suppress any support for Wagner in Russian society.

Garland didn’t appoint someone independent from outside the government because he didn’t want to risk having the Supreme Court rule the appointment illegal on the grounds that the outside attorney was not confirmed by the US Senate.

A special counsel can exercise the same powers as a US Attorney.

But all US Attorneys must be confirmed by the US Senate.

Courts have winked at this in the past, but it is possible the Supreme Court might look at the substance of the appointment and rule that if an outside person is clothed with the powers of a US Attorney, then that person must be confirmed by the US Senate.

By appointing someone who is a sitting US Attorney and has already been confirmed by the US Senate, the choice of the special counsel doesn’t have to be agreed upon with Senate Republicans, who might demand someone who will actually do a real investigation and prosecution.

Barr did the same thing with Durham. Technically, they are not appointed under the independent counsel regulations, but rather are simply an existing US Attorney delegated a special task by the Attorney General, but are instructed to follow the independent counsel regulations as if they were an independent counsel.

Wagner's new location near Osipovichi in Belarus 200 km north of Ukraine, but more importantly close to Minsk where Wagner can be used against any uprising by the Belarusian people.

Prigozhin was spotted at the Green City Hotel in Minsk.

From https://t.me/svobodnieslova/2297:

In Belarus, they began to build camps to accommodate the fighters of the Wagner PMC. “Layout” confirmed the construction of a camp in Osipovichi, Mogilev region for 8,000 fighters, 200 km from the border with Ukraine. There will be several camps.

In the Mogilev region of Belarus, the construction of a military camp for mercenaries of the Wagner PMC is already in full swing, the forestry of the region told Layout. According to the interlocutor, there will be several camps, one of them will be located near the town of Osipovichi.

“ We are working, we are already working today. Tomorrow, before lunch, the task is to [build] ,” said the interlocutor of Nestka. He added that the area of ​​the camp will be 24 thousand square meters, it will be designed for eight thousand beds.

A source of Nestka, close to the leadership of the Mogilev region, confirmed that the authorities were instructed to build a camp for PMCs in the region.

The information that the mercenaries will be sent to Belarus is also confirmed by the relatives of the members of the Wagner group.

One of the relatives, referring to her friend, said that the Wagner PMC units remaining in Rostov-on-Don would be sent to Belarus. Another interlocutor of the publication told Layout that her husband, who was in Rostov on Saturday, informed her about being sent to Belarus “most likely”, but did not get in touch again.

Also, three participants in chats with relatives said that they received similar messages from relatives, but in a conversation with a Nestka correspondent, they mentioned that they did not know for sure whether the units were heading towards Belarus. One of the interlocutors said that his relative was “near Rostov” by this hour.

Kofman appears to be wrong, based on reports coming out of Russia today.

A base is being built for Wagner fighters in Belarus. The first construction includes barracks for 8,000 troops.

Things are back to normal at Wagner’s base at Molkino. Wagner is not being disarmed, they still have all the equipment they had on their “march for justice” to Moscow.

There are claims an investigation for corruption has been started against Shoigu. Perhaps there will be a decent interval and then Shoigu and Gerasimov will be replaced. If they are replaced by Wagner allies like Dyumin and Surovikin then Prigozhin will have achieved what he claimed was his aim all along, which was not a coup but merely the ousting of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

It looks like Wagner’s new role will be as a palace guard for Lukashenko in Belarus.

There are free Belarus regiments forming in Ukraine planning to liberate Belarus from the dictator Lukashenko. The Belarus military itself is unreliable and rumors are that units who were ordered to join the invasion of Ukraine refused and were willing to stand on the border but go no further.

Wagner’s role will be to defend Lukashenko from any uprising or coup attempt until he dies or is no longer needed by the Kremlin. Then the Kremlin will terminate independent government in Minsk and convert Belarus into provinces of Russia.

This is a similar role for the new base in Belarus housing Russian tactical nukes. The Russian nukes are intended to deter Poland from helping liberate Belarus and the Russian forces guarding the nukes will be available together with Wagner to defeat any forces attempting to free Belarus from Lukashenko whether from outside from the Belarus liberation regiments or inside from a coup from the Belarus army or security forces.

If Prigozhin and Wagner play a key role in ending Belarusian independence and adding the territory of Belarus to Russia, then Prigozhin will become even more popular in Russia and will be positioned as the eventual successor to Putin.

Has anyone been more wrong about Russia and Putin than Sundance?

I’m old enough to remember when Sundance authoritatively declared that Putin would not invade Ukraine and the idea that he might was created out of whole cloth by the Biden crew.

I wish Sundance would stick to domestic deep state matters where he actually has valuable things to say.

The last somewhat cryptic post by the Wagner Grey Zone telegram channel:

Wagner had a lot of support within the MOD, not just Surovikin and Mintzizev but enough that Wagner easily took over several major Russian military installations including the Southern Military Department headquarters in Rostov, the army HQ in Novocherkassk, the Millerovo air base, the giant Buturlinovka air base and possibly the tactical nuke storage facility near Voronezh.

Big things are moving behind the scenes but who is coming out on top and when things will become apparent is hard to say.

Maybe the SVR served him a sledgehammer

How to Make a Sledgehammer Cocktail:

9 oz 100 proof vodka
1 oz lime juice
2 oz orange juice
a pinch of polonium

Russian pro-MoD military blogger Two Majors believes that Prigozhin was given assurances that Shoigu and Gerasimov will resign and expects that pro-Prigozhin political figures such as Turchak, Kovalchuk, Likhachev and Kiriyenko will gain power.

Recall Prigozhin's most recent videos in which he asserted that the invasion of Ukraine was a mistake, that it was done so that certain oligarchs could plunder Ukraine and that Russian losses are much greater than the Russian people have been told.

Maybe not.

There is reason to believe Prigozhin has become the most popular political figure in Russia in recent months.

If Prigozhin succeeds in forcing Putin to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov without major bloodshed Prigozhin likely becomes even more popular among the Russian people.

Putin and his circle may decide the best course is to reach an accommodation with Prigozhin and sacrifice Shoigu and Gerasimov.

I suspect this may all be part of Prigozhin’s plan: His forces approach Moscow, political figures supporting Prigozhin call for national unity adn negotiations, and Shoigu and Gerasimov end up getting sacked with perhaps even Prigozhin becoming Minister of Defense or at least one of his allies like Surovikin taking the position.

“Lukashenko announces that Prigozhin has accepted Lukashenko’s proposal to stop Wagner Group’s advance in Russia and start negotiations.”

Negotiations in which Shoigu and Gerasimov are sacked are a win for Prigozhin. Even bigger if Prigozhin becomes Minister of Defense in the fallout.

I go with the first choice, that Prigozhin has planned this out beforehand and has support among an important part of the elites and security forces.

Whether he will actually succeed is another matter. If key political figures start calling for national unity and for negotiation with Prigozhin with an outcome in which Shoigu and Gerasimov are sacked that could be a sign of Prigozhin’s support.

A big problem for Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov is that elite units like the 4th Guards Tank Division and the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division which were given the honor of the Moscow garrison to defend the capital were absolutely mauled in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

They spent months recovering in Belarus and are still in the Ukraine theatre supposedly in the Luhansk area in very poor shape.

Anyway, it is not clear these units would not side with Prigozhin given the massive losses they sustained under the incompetence of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

So Putin has to rely on air power and the Rosgvardia to defend the capital. And Wagner has their own air defense systems.

Rumor that Medvedev and his family have fled Moscow

Igor Girkin Strelkov’s sources say Wagner is 2 hours from Moscow

and Prigozhin reportedly is in the bunker 40 meters deep below the Southern Military District headquarters

Reportedly the real Putin is in the bunker at his Valdai residence together with his closest associates