Free Republic

"The worst RINO in the House of Representatives is Brian Fitzpatrick"

True (Fitz is a terrible RINO).

"He’s in a safe Republican district"

Patently false. His district is nothing like Newhouse's. It's a super-marginal district and is rated as dead-even; probably should be D+1.

Profile of Congressional District 1, PA

Scum though he is (far more liberal than even his brother was), Fitzpatrick fits the district well. The Democrats are spending more this year than they did in 2022 against him, but it's just a token effort because the Rats have no real reason to oppose him on ideological grounds.

If the shit hits the fan in November and the GOP is swamped by any kind of "blue wave", Fitzpatrick could and probably will be a casualty. The district being what it is -- a leftward-trending area in the Philly suburbs (the new Democrat vote fraud epicenter of PA -- neither he nor any Republican at the state or federal level is anything remotely resembling "safe" under any conditions.

Smiley's run in 2022 was always a lost cause but one thing she showed was a major ability to raise money. Despite the legendary efficiency of the Democrat dirty money laundry known as "ActBlue", Smiley actually raised MORE money from individual contributions than doddering old Patsy Murray (!).

2022 Senatorial Election Results for Washington

Despite the GOP allegedly paying for a few tepid ads on Smiley's behalf, Smiley had zilch as far as party support; Murray had millions from the Rats and was able to outspend Smiley. Not that she really needed to because Smiley never had a chance regardless of $$$$.

The Trump-endorsed (for now) candidate in WA-4 in 2024 is Jerrod Sessler, who got 12% in the open primary in 2022. Sessler is a decent conservative from what I know of him. If Tiffany Smiley can bring her 2022-style fundraising to this race, she will be the favored challenger to RINO Newhouse, and Trump will stick his finger into the wind and likely change horses once he sees that she's more probable to make it to November than Sessler is.

Either way, whatever it takes to get rid of Newhouse is what should be done. Unlike what happened under similar conditions in WA-3 in 2022, no Democrat has a chance of winning this district in a general election, though one could make the runoff when Smiley, Sessler and whoever else split the conservative vote.

“If we try to restrict abortion, then Democrats will put unlimited abortion on the ballot.”

And even when we reach the point where every state has completely free and unrestricted abortions, it will STILL be on the ballot every year — because it works so well.

“You must KEEP voting for Democrats or those evil Republicans will TAKE AWAY YOUR PRECIOUS RIGHTS if you ever let them get back into power anywhere!!!!”

Any Republican who is even accused of doing about 1/10 of this would be expected (and pressured) to resign immediately.

What will Cuellar do? My guess is he’ll have a nice chat with Senator Bob Menendez, while in the meantime the media will drop the story within the next few days.

If (and ONLY if) Cuellar is seen as being detrimental to Rat election chances in November, he will suddenly be forced “do the right thing” whether he likes it or not.

The filing deadline and primary are long past in Texas — does Texas law allow the Rats to pull a “Torricelli” if Cuellar departs?

And if not, will some corrupt Democrat judge let them do it anyway?

“Cuellar strongly disagreed w/ Biden’s open border policy......and Cuellar is pro-life.”

Cuellar supported President Alzheimer and voted against the Secure the Border Act in 2023.

He voted for several pro-abortionist measures in 2022.

His media image, however misleadingly “moderate” that may be, doesn’t correspond to how he votes the vast majority of the time. Even if he is a tad less than 100% liberal, he’s still not worth shit.

His district is just D+3, so it’s too bad that the GOP seems to have decided to give him a free pass this year. Maybe now they’ll dump a few shekels in the direction of whichever Republican wins the primary runoff at the end of this month.

Cuellar has raised nearly $2 million so far; the 2 GOPpies *combined* don’t even get to 1/4 of that amount.

Cuellar long ago was (falsely) considered to be a conservative Democrat, who was occasionally invited to switch parties. He currently represents a district which runs from the San Antonio suburbs down to Laredo:

2022 election results for TX district 28

Cuellar long ago stopped being even a moderate and is a 90% liberal, which still qualifies him as being slightly more sane than most of his Rat colleagues.

In 2022, he came very close to losing a primary to a complete racist nutbucket named Jessica Cisneros. Had that happened, the GOP would have had an excellent chance to pick up the seat. Cuellar had no primary challenger at all in 2024.

Why the hyper-partisan Democrat DOJ would suddenly target him now, when he's fairly safe and is a good little plantation liberal again, is somewhat mysterious. Probably all for show, and they can make a big deal of exonerating him well before November. Our hero!

As of now, the GOP is making no effort whatsoever to oust Cuellar this year; he'll be safely re-elected unless there really is something very substantial to these charges (in which case the Rats will undoubtedly try to do a "Torricelli" here).

“But this time the VP needs to be an activist to push Trump to get rid of the Deep State. Vance is the only one of these four likely to do that.

I wish he’d think out of the box & look at Larry Elder, Ric Grenell or a few others. He could do much better than Scott if he wants to appeal to blacks, or some other victim group.”

Another good post. Burgum is anti-conservative and neither he, nor Scott nor Rubio are fighters. They’re all just different colors/flavors of milquetoast.

While one of these 3 may in fact be Trump’s pick, or more likely the GOPe’s pick who is foisted upon Trump (but hey — that trick worked very well in 1980!), the more likely scenario is that the far-leftists at Bloomberg have no idea whatsoever who is really on the short list, much less who the actual selection will be.

I’d seriously rather have Tulsi Gabbard as VP than some of these other options. And I really don’t trust Gabbard one bit despite her apparent move to the right over the past couple of years.

John Fetterman: the conservatives’ new favorite Democrat!

Spit.

All talk, no action. His voting record is as liberal (right around 100%) as it ever was.

So Fetterman is sent out in front of the cameras or on social media (it’s better for him if there AREN’T cameras) and reads from the “See, we Democrats aren’t ALL radicals” script which is carefully prepared for him by the liberal leadership.

And suddenly those who are right-of-center, albeit clueless, embrace him as some kind of “sensible moderate”, a latter-day Joe Lieberman (who was hardly moderate), based on nothing other than a few utterly meaningless words.

“JD Vance. The others are worthless.”

100% this. Though unless it’s Scott then “Oh noes, two White males on the ticket!!! We doomed!!! Gotta pander moar!!!”

As far as Vance, he is more useful in the Senate than he would be as VP/figurehead even one who splits ties in the 50-50 Senate. Any Trump VP would do that, but Trump has to actually win first.

Also, Vance would almost certainly be replaced in the Senate by someone worse, except in the event that Moreno loses this November (probable) but Trump-Vance wins (not nearly as probable) and Moreno gets the Senate appointment from Governor Squish DeWine (also not overly likely) instead of some Portman-esque RINO like Mike Turner.

If being VP gives Vance the inside track for the GOP nomination for the Big Job in 2028, then that’s one minor saving grace — although we should expect a crowded primary for sure, maybe even crowded with actual conservatives and not just Haley-Christie-Bush-Romney-McCain types!

“Tulsi is the ONLY candidate on PDJT’s short list who can bring some additional voting block in swing states. Namely suburban mom’s. “

Gee, that sounds familiar to those of us here in Pennsylvania. We were told exactly the same thing regarding Trump’s blunderful endorsement of Dr. Oz in 2022.

How’d that work?

Pandering NEVER works for Republicans. Never.

"R’s need to quit playing the leftist joke of a game with all this DEI crap."

Agreed. Plus it never works.

I don't hate Gabbard but I don't trust her, but Stefanik -- no way.

Here's something from January, when Stefanik was all of a sudden being boosted throughout the media. Back then, Nimrod Haley was still in the race, though everyone with a brain knew she wouldn't last very long.

'She's a killer': Trump eyes Rep. Elise Stefanik as a potential VP pick

Pandering based on sex (women) or race (blacks) never works for the GOP.

Concannon represents a rock-solid GOP district in which Democrats normally don’t even bother fielding a candidate since a margin like 75%-25% would be common. Kansas can do much better in that district.

Borjon has always been liberal scum, a typical example of a liberal Democrat who runs as a Republican in one of those big rectangular states where Democrats have difficulty getting elected unless they conceal their true identity.

This is why you cannot go by sheer numbers and marvel at how Republicans “dominate” at the state legislative level in states like Kansas, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, etc.

The “Republican” caucus in these state houses are comprised of more Democrats-in-disguise than actual conservatives (who are nearly as rare there as they are in Congress).

“House D+45”

Is that your prediction for the U.S. House for November?

Seems rather extreme (D+10 to D+20 is more likely than that), but I certainly can’t prove that D+45 is impossible.

“he would be on MSNBC and CNN non stop if he were so helpful to the Dem party”

That makes no sense whatsoever.

He helps the Rats by taking votes away from Trump. RFK therefore has to be portrayed in the Trump-hating media as being on the RIGHT, not the loony left (where he actually is). And he’s going to do that on.... MSNBC and CNN???? LOL.

No, he’s going to do that by appearing on so-called “conservative” outlets like Fox which gladly promote Trump-haters. RFK’s conservative “cred” would not only NOT be enhanced by appearing on the lunatic leftist alphabet networks, it would be hurt.

What he’s doing is exactly the right thing to help Biden.

“Good luck trying to find the enrollment number for NY-26.”

Not hard at all. Click on the link in my post #13, scroll to the bottom of the page.

"That a Republican was routed even upstate is a bitter dose of reality for those insisting Trump could win NY.

Of course Trump isn't going to win NY and only the most delusional think he might, but not all "upstate" districts resemble some bucolic Norman Rockwell painting, you know.

NY-26 is the most Democrat oriented district in the state outside of metro NYC, and consists of the Buffalo ghetto and most of Erie and Niagara counties. Many parts of the area are probably quite nice, but they are vastly outvoted by the undesirables in the city and the worst of the suburbs.

Profle of NY congressional district 26

It still was a rout, and the Republican still lost by more than he should have, but in these special elections Democrats are always more motivated, funded, prepared and organized than Republicans are. The GOP was never going to come within even 10 points in this case, so they surely didn't even bother to try.

However the most "special" election of all takes place in November, and the RNC, NRSC etc. damn well better not let themselves be steamrolled by the Rats' advantages in all of the categories mentioned above or it's going to be one ugly night.

Seinfeld is, always was, an ultra-liberal putz; Larry David is even worse. Jerry's way late to the party on this.

"Seinfeld" cast members to reunite to raise money for Texas Democrats

From 2020, not exactly ancient history.

“Pretty good research. I live here, but a good 10 miles away.”

See post 27.

For more relevant stats, here is the precise census tract containing Galway Drive:

Census Tract 15.04, Mecklenburg County, North Carolina

Only 16% White. Very downscale, as should be expected. VERY low education levels (which is not always a bad thing, but it fits the profile here), 1/4 of the population on welfare, etc.

We wish that Trump will “dominate” in NC but neither party is going to do that. If people ignore outlier polls on the left they better ignore the same type on the right, otherwise they’re just deluding themselves.

The North Carolina gubernatorial election is shaping up to be somewhat like the one in Kentucky, where an empty-suit liberal Rat is being opposed by a black conservative (Mark Robinson in NC, Daniel Cameron in Kentucky).

As happened in Kentucky too, the liberal has a sizable advantage in fundraising, with Joshie Stein having all the money in the world and Robinson trailing by several million dollars. The liberal wing of the GOP (scumbag Thom Tillis, etc.) is making a point out of NOT supporting Robinson and not funding him either.

I’m not in NC but I’d wager that Stein’s media campaign of lies and hate is running 24/7 everywhere while Robinson’s media presence is far more low-profile by comparison, if it exists at all.

UNLIKE in Kentucky, Robinson is a fighter while Cameron turned out to be a lukewarm bowl of milk and went down meekly.

Good luck to Robinson. He’ll never be heavily favored in any reliable poll (or in November), but it damn sure ought to be close in the end and not any blowout in favor of the sleazy A.G.