Free Republic

A group of scientists recently put out a new study confirming the 15-year "hiatus" in global warming. That study made headlines, but what went largely unnoticed was a major admission made by the paper’s authors: the climate models were wrong. "There is this mismatch between what the climate models are producing and what the observations are showing," John Fyfe, Canadian climate modeler and lead author of the new paper, told Nature. "We can't ignore it." "Reality has deviated from our expectations - it is perfectly normal to try and understand this difference," Ed Hawkins, co-author of the study and United...

We are told by government-funded climate alarmists that their forecasts of dangerous man-made global warming rely on “settled science”. Their “settled science” represents a mare’s nest of computer models, resting on a few match-sticks of science, surrounded by tall forests of uncertainty. It is indeed settled science that all gases in the atmosphere can affect the exchange of heat between the sun, the Earth and outer space, and this can affect global temperatures. It is also agreed that certain gases like water vapor and carbon dioxide can absorb and redirect radiant energy passing through the atmosphere. It is also settled...

Two problems arise when comparing a model’s integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast to the observations themselves. Verifying the model with an analysis, we compare two equally sized “grids”; verifying the model with observations, we compare a tiny number of model grid points with reality. Now, some kinds of screwiness in the model are also endemic in the analysis: the model and analysis are, after all, built from the same materials. Some screwiness, therefore, will remain hidden, undetectable in the model-analysis verification. However, the model-analysis verification can reveal certain...