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The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday, revising down its initial estimate of a 3.2 percent increase in the nation's economic performance. The drop in fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth was largely due to a smaller-than-expected boost from Americans buying bit-ticket items such as autos. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy, slowed to a 2.6 percent rise from 3.3 percent in the third quarter. Export, inventory accumulation and government spending also contributed to the downward revision in GDP. Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth now...

I spoke to someone yesterday that I have not seen since 1996. I met him at the Barbican in London, he was an Inventor and I was an inventor and we were both displaying products, i then met him a few months later at the Southampton Science fair and we went out for a few beers. So he worked in electronics and when I met him yesterday he told me something that I could never imagine and still cant believe it but it does seem true as I did a couple of searches and thing are happening as he told...

Seldom have so few done so much financial harm to so many as is now occurring with the partial mandatory implementation of the Obama Socialist Health Insurance Tax, commonly called "Obamacare." Estimates today on FOX News "Fox and Friends" start at 4.5 Million clients who will have their current Medical Insurance policies cancelled at year end because those existing insurance policies are considered to be illegal by the Mandatory Obamacare Federal Insurance Tax Law. Will Speaker Boehner do ANYTHING to protect Insurance consumers from the harsh financial ruin that Obamacare clearly promises?

According to The Federal Reserve G.19 Report for August, consumer debt topped $3 trillion! Of course, Federal government debt has topped $16 trillion, over 5 times the amount of consumer debt. Note that pickup in Federal debt growth compared to consumer debt growth after Q2 2008 (red box). feddebtconsumer Here is a chart of revolving consumer credit versus non-revolving credit. Non-revolving debt (e.g., auto loans) have effectively replaced revolving debt. revnonrev Business loans have finally grown past the prior peak in 2008. frbusloasn On the government side, current expenditures (purple line) continue to grow, but the rate of growth flattened...

Rising interest rates are really starting to hit the economy. The Reuters – University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence Sentiment was forecast to be 82.0 but printed at 76.8 after a previous print of 82.1. This is the lowest print in 5 months. Rising Treasury and mortgage rates are definitely a cause of declining consumer confidence. Notice that the 10 year Treasury yield began to decline in mid 2011 and consumer confidence began to rise (green box). Then Treasury rates began rising on May 1st and consumer confidence fell (red box). With a lag. consumerconfid091313 We know that mortgage...

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 80, down to September 2007 levels. umcc But here is the one chart that largely is correlated with consumer confidence: housing price growth. umccloanhp Notice that consumer confidence was above 80 during the housing bubble and has only exceeded 80 recently as house prices have surged. But as house prices fell in 2008, consumer confidence fell below 80. Despite rising house prices, the recent increase in part-time rather than full-time jobs. Not to mention the reality of Obamacare. Average Weekly Hours 2013-08C I know I am feeling less confident!

Its been a long, hard road for millions of Americans, but the University of Michigan consumer confidence index is back to levels not seen since August 2007, under President Bush. The last time consumer confidence broke the 100 level was in January 2004. umcihconsumerconfi This rise in consumer confidence is in spite on rising mortgage rates. ummort And consumer confidence is rising despite rising gasoline prices (green). concinfigas Could it be positive signs for a recovering private mortgage market? According to Jody Shenn, JPMorgan Chase & Co. sold U.S. home-loan bonds without government backing in its third offering since the...

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SOARS IN MAY TO HIGHEST READING SINCE 2007 Matthew Boesler May 31, 2013, 9:55 AM Brady Hoke UPDATE: The consumer confidence report is out. The headline index rose to 84.5 in May from 76.4 in April. Economists expected the number to come in at 83.7, matching the preliminary estimate published by the University of Michigan earlier this month. The economic conditions sub-index rose to 98.0 from 89.9 in April, exceeding the preliminary May estimate of 97.5. The economic outlook sub-index rose to 75.8 from 67.8 in April, beating the preliminary estimate of 74.8. Inflation expectations one year ahead...

BRUSSELS – Confidence in the euro zone's economy fell for a second straight month in April and by more than expected, data showed on Monday, strengthening the case for a cut in interest rates this week. Economic morale in the 17 countries using the euro slipped 1.5 percent points to 88.6, the European Commission said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a decline to 89.3. The disappointing data highlights the euro zone's difficult road out of recession and the souring of the mood among companies and consumers since March, after an optimistic start to the year. Likely of most concern,...

Truckin' & Stylin'. Shooting Stars. Timeless Elders. Based on where you live, how much money you make and where you shop, you may be classified into one of these categories by one of the country's largest data brokers. (snip, excerpt required) Married Sophisticates: You're in your late 20s or early 30s, recently married and likely have a household income between $50,000 and $100,000. You probably own a home, most likely in an upscale suburban neighborhood. You're a fan of "green and trendy cars," shop at Banana Republic and The Gap and are a loyal Netflix Inc. subscriber. Truckin' & Stylin':...

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), built by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and run by “Robo Cop” Richard Cordray (the former Attorney General of Ohio), has issued its new list of mortgage feature bans for the “qualified mortgage.” Kerri Ann Panchuk from Housing Wire has a nice summary in her article. 201301_cfpb_ability-to-repay-factsheet Here are the features of Qualified Mortgages and what is banned: • No excess upfront points and fees • No toxic loan features o No interest-only loans, o No loans where the principal amount increases, such as a negative-amortization loan; and o No loans where the term is...

The Federal Reserve announced today that consumer credit rose $14.2 billion in October. The Federal government (aka, student loans) accounted for $6.9 billion of the increase. Quite an increase since January 2009! Overall, here is the revolving credit versus the non-revolving credit growth. Non revolving credit (auto loans and student loans) has boomed when revolving credit is relatively flat. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays … with your auto and student loans! Remember, you start paying soon graduates!!

Americans' outlook on the economy and their finances took a turn for the worse in early December due likely to anxiety about the potential for higher taxes resulting from contentious discussions in Washington over fiscal issues, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading of the overall index on consumer sentiment plunged to 74.5 in early December, the lowest level since August. It was far below November's figure of 82.7 and the median forecast of 82.4 among economists polled by Reuters.

AAA research reveals need for regulators and industry to suspend E15 sales to protect motorists ORLANDO, Fla., Nov. 30, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A recent survey by AAA finds a strong likelihood of consumer confusion and the potential for voided warranties and vehicle damage as a result of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent approval of E15 gasoline. An overwhelming 95 percent of consumers surveyed have not heard of E15, a newly approved gasoline blend that contains up to 15 percent ethanol. ... Only about 12 million out of the more than 240 million light-duty vehicles on the roads today are...

Consumer confidence rose to a four-and-a-half-year high in November as consumers became more optimistic about the outlook for the economy, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 73.7 up from an upwardly revised 73.1 the month before, its highest since February 2008. Economists had expected a reading of 73.0, according to a Reuters poll. Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012/11/27/consumer-confidence-hits-highest-level-since-february-08/#ixzz2DRcxDlqn

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in more than five years in November as consumers felt more optimistic about employment prospects and the outlook for the overall economy, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 84.9, up from 82.6 the month before. It was above the median forecast of 83 among economists polled by Reuters. "More consumers expected good rather than bad times financially in the economy in early November, not only for the year ahead but over the next five years...

As a long-time Ohio State Buckeye football fan, I have never been a fan of University of Michigan. And the recent University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index seems to be measuring optimism about Michigan Wolverine football than the economy. Seriously, as real GDP growth hovers barely above 1% and the crash in durable goods orders, this is a surprise. According to University of Michigan, consumer confidence has risen to Bush-era levels of September 2007. Just to put it into context, I put a yellow line through the 100 level. We still have a long way to go to get to...

U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to its highest level in five years in October as consumers became more optimistic about the overall economy in a possible boost to President Obama's reelection hopes next month. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary October reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 83.1, up from 78.3 the month before, and the highest since September 2007, the survey showed on Friday.

That's A MAJOR Surge In Consumer Confidence Joe WeisenthalSeptember 25, 2012 Consumer confidence surged from 61.3 last month to 70.3 this month. That's well ahead of estimates of 63.1. Needless to say this has all kinds of ramifications, if it holds up. The significance is both political and economic if the consumer is feeling better. Here's the full announcement from the Conference Board... ------------ he Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in August, improved in September. The Index now stands at 70.3 (1985=100), up from 61.3 in August. The Expectations Index increased to 83.7 from 71.1. The Present...

The Case-Shiller house price indices were released this morning. The 20-City Composite posted an annual returns\ of +0.5% in June 2012. Month-over-month, average home prices in the 20-City Composite were up 2.3% versus May. You can see the Case-Shiller 20 Composite (green) compared to recent prints by FNC (blue) and FHFA Purchase (gold). For the second consecutive month, all 20 cities and both Composites recorded positive monthly gains. Eighteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in June as compared to May 2012 – only Charlotte and Dallas saw a deceleration in their annual rates. As...