Free Republic

The Presidential race in Virginia is pretty tight. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 42-39, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head contest Clinton's lead remains 3 points at 48/45. Clinton's benefiting from Democrats in Virginia (83/8) being more unified around her than Republicans (76/5) are around Trump. But with independents Trump's up 42/29.

If all you’re interested in is the topline then this is the best poll for Trump in weeks. Only once since the second GOP debate had he reached as high as 26 percent in a national poll — until today. He’s still 10 points better than his closest competitor here. And although he’s dropped two points, from 29 percent to 27, since PPP published its last national poll on September 1st, no one else except for Marco Rubio has gained more than two points in that time either. Rubio picked up six points to move from fifth place to...

So says PPP, the same outfit responsible for that poll a few weeks back showing Trump losing head-to-head match-ups against Rubio and Walker in North Carolina. Either NC is an outlier or the mood has changed nationally because Republicans across America now prefer him to either of those candidates — and not narrowly either. He leads Rubio by eight when voters are forced to choose between them and Walker by 14. As for Jeb Bush, gadzooks:Jeb’s got another month to turn things around before the donor class heads for the lifeboats, I think. There is one candidate tested who...

Impressive, but how long realistically can Walker resist the Ben Carson juggernaut?Actually — no fooling — I think Carson’s numbers are bigger news here than Walker’s, even though he’s the first guy in the developing field to establish something of a frontrunner status. Walker is climbing fast in the polling because of his appeal to the most conservative elements of the Republican electorate. Among ‘very conservative’ voters he leads with 37% to 19% for Carson, 12% for Bush, and 11% for Huckabee. Bush has a similarly large lead over Walker with moderates at 34/12…the problem for Bush though is...

Granted, her ratings have always been solid among Republicans. And granted, comparing the favorability of someone who isn’t running to the favorability of two candidates who have been tearing each other’s throats out every day for months is apples and oranges. Even so, Ian Lazaran at Conservatives4Palin makes a fair point: As a Not Romney with appeal to evangelical and non-evangelical conservatives alike, she probably could have given Mitt more of a run for his money than Santorum has. Sarah Palin is now once again better liked than any of the actual candidates. 68% see her favorably and only 20%...

Started today's Michigan calls at 4 and so far seeing encouraging things for Santorum. Tomorrow may be a long night. Pretty sure Santorum will win election day voters tomorrow in MI, just a question of whether he can make up Romney's absentee lead. Our final Michigan numbers should be out between 10 and 11 tonight.

For a while after Rick Santorum’s sweep in early February, it appeared that Mitt Romney might be on the ropes in the Republican primary. Santorum once held a significant lead in Michigan and close to a tie in Arizona, and seemed poised for another multi-state upset. According to the latest polling from PPP in both states, though, the momentum has swung in the other direction. In PPP’s poll of Michigan, Romney has begun to edge Santorum one day ahead of their primary, but also with a significant lead in early voting: Mitt Romney’s taken a small lead over Rick Santorum...

One thing that has remained constant in the ever changing GOP Presidential race is that Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate against Barack Obama...at least until now.  PPP's newest national poll finds Romney trailing Obama by 7 points at 49-42, while Santorum trails by only 5 points at 49-44.This is a new development in the flavor of the month game. Over the previous 6 months when Romney first trailed Michele Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich in our national polling he still did on average 6 points better than them in our general election tests....

Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich. Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support. Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for...

Elizabeth Warren has had an incredibly successful launch to her Senate campaign and actually leads Scott Brown now by a 46-44 margin, erasing what was a 15 point deficit the last time we polled the state in early June. Warren's gone from 38% name recognition to 62% over the last three months and she's made a good first impression on pretty much everyone who's developed an opinion about her during that period of time. What was a 21/17 favorability rating in June is now 40/22- in other words she's increased the voters with a positive opinion of her by 19%....

I don’t know what’s left to say about polls like the PPP Poll that I haven’t already said, so follow that last link if you missed it the first time around. Today’s funsies: Trump 26, Huckabee 17, Romney 15, Gingrich 11, Palin 8. Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they’re willing to support a candidate for President next year who firmly rejects the birther theory and those folks want Mitt Romney to be their nominee for President next year. With the other 62% of Republicans- 23% of whom say they are only willing to vote for a birther and...

Romney leads in NH, Trump makes things interesting Mitt Romney's still the clear early front runner to take the Republican primary in New Hampshire next year but for the first time in our polling of the race PPP finds someone within single digits of him...Donald Trump. If Trump actually run 21% of New Hampshire GOP voters say they'd vote for him, compared to 27% for Romney. The key to Trump's relatively strong showing? He does well with birthers and Tea Partiers, two groups he has seemed to actively court with his public comments of late. 42% of primary voters firmly...

Public Policy Polling produced a poll for the Daily Kos showing that five of the eight Wisconsin State Senate Republicans would actually beat unidentified Democrat candidates in a Recall matchup. Three of these five would get more than fifty percent of the vote (52, 56, 60), and two don't make it to the fifty mark (netting 45 and 48 percent of the vote). In four districts, more people disapprove of the Recall in the first place than those who are in favor of it. But here is how some news sites headlined the story: •The Daily Kos: Wisconsin recall: 3...

Barack Obama's best chance to win Missouri may have passed...unless the Republicans nominate Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich. After losing the state by the smallest of margins in 2008 Obama is now unpopular in the state, with 52% of voters disapproving of him to only 43% who approve. He trails Mike Huckabee by 7 points (49-42) and Mitt Romney by 6 points (47-41) in hypothetical match ups. But Palin and Gingrich are even more unpopular in the state than he is and as a result he leads Palin by a 46-43 margin and trails Gingrich only 45-44. Huckabee is...

Where should we poll the final week? Connecticut Delaware Georgia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New York Rhode Island South Carolina Vermont

If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012 she can't count on a whole lot of support back home. 62% of Alaska Republicans are opposed to her making a White House bid and she gets only 17% in a hypothetical 2012 primary in the state tying for her second with Mike Huckabee behind Mitt Romney. It's not that Alaska Republicans don't like Palin- a majority of them still do. But there's a significant disconnect between GOP voters in the state liking Palin and thinking she should run for President, a divide we've seen with Republicans nationally and one that presents...

Actually, the real scoop is that Huckabee has crawled to within one thin point of The One at 46/45. But I already teased the good news for him a few days ago, so here’s the Palinistas’ chance to feel encouraged. She trailed The One by 12 points in late October. Six weeks later, thanks to the book tour and the debacle that is ObamaCare, she’s cut it in half.

Seasoned Citizens are getting it, could be the Health Care Bill and cuts in Medicare...(PPP Poll)