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The families of Russian men drafted under President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization last year have planned mass protests demanding their return home, amid reports that soldiers are being prohibited from leaving the military. The soldiers' relatives published a manifesto on the Telegram channel The Way Home on November 12 demanding that their men be allowed home, and inviting Russians nationwide to participate in rallies on November 19. Since 2014, protesters in Russia have faced punishment for holding demonstrations without the permission of the authorities. The RAND Corporation, an American think tank and research institute, said in a report in June...

Russia's “partial mobilization” and its sham referendums to justify the annexation of four provinces in Eastern Ukraine create new sources of uncertainty about the future course of the war. Yet Russia's actions should also produce a rare moment of strategic clarity for Ukraine's partners: No viable path to negotiated peace remains, and any result short of Ukrainian victory will be, in the long run, a worse outcome for the rules-based international order. The third, and more politically significant, alternative falls somewhere between the first two. This camp decries Russia's barbarity and lauds Ukrainians' bravery while, at same time, worrying about...

Russia has failed to achieve its strategic goals in the first hundred days of the war and Ukraine need not cede substantial territory to end it, William Courtney, adjunct senior fellow at Rand Corporation, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday. Russia began its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, calling it a “special military operation.” The war entered its 100th day on Friday. “Over 100 days, the Russians have pulled back their aims at least tactically, perhaps not strategically, quite a lot. The original goal was to seize three major cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa. Russian troops had to withdraw...

Since its 2008 incursion into Georgia (if not before), there has been a remarkable evolution in Russia's approach to propaganda. This new approach was on full display during the country's 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula. It continues to be demonstrated in support of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Syria and in pursuit of nefarious and long-term goals in Russia's “near abroad” and against NATO allies.In some ways, the current Russian approach to propaganda builds on Soviet Cold War–era techniques, with an emphasis on obfuscation and on getting targets to act in the interests of the propagandist without realizing that...

This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue across economic, political, and military areas to stress—overextend and unbalance—Russia’s economy and armed forces and the regime's political standing at home and abroad. Some of the options examined are clearly more promising than others, but any would need to be evaluated in terms of the overall U.S. strategy for dealing with Russia, which neither the report nor this brief has attempted to do.The maxim that “Russia is never so strong nor so weak as it appears” remains as true in...

Full title; America gets its ‘a@@ handed to it’ in WW3 simulations: U.S. forces are defeated by Russia and China in almost all scenarios, analysts warn Nonprofit global policy think tank RAND performs simulated war scenarios to test how the US would fare against other leading military superpowersThe simulations cover battle on land, at sea, in the air, space and cyberspace Analysts warned last week that the US loses to Russia or China in most scenariosHowever, they said it would take just $24billion annually to improve outcomesThat's about three percent of the $750billion defense budget proposed for 2020  By

In an appearance on CNN in March, Philadelphia Daily News columnist Will Bunch said that "too much of our, at least, mainstream elite media news coverage is driven by columnists and pundits who aren't out in the field. They're talking to the consultant class at places like the Capital Grill and [with] consultants who are fighting the last war, who expected Trump to collapse. Bunch chided the media for having a blindspot to the places where Trump was receiving support. "The truth is if they'd gone out to places like Kentucky … these people are happy to talk, and what...

**SNIP** But though the United States and Iran each face domestic pressures against closer relations, some analysts see a more collaborative relationship as an inevitable if uneasy consequence of the negotiations leading up to the nuclear deal — despite the insistence of leaders on either side that the American-brokered agreement would be limited to Iran’s nuclear program. “Both the Iranian and American governments are going to approach expanded dialogue very gingerly,” said James Dobbins, a senior follow at the RAND Corporation. “But there will still be a gradual increase in at least communication between the two governments on areas beyond...

It has been a triumphant month for liberal journalists who have lived and died with the fortunes of the Affordable Care Act since its passage in March 2010. Ezra Klein and Jon Cohen have declared victory, describing an amazing recovery for the program and for President Obama since the dark days of near-total failure among people trying to sign up on the federal exchanges in October and November.To listen to Obamacare supporters, Kathleen Sebelius leaves her post as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services with her head held high, as her legacy now includes shepherding across...

The number of chronic marijuana users—defined as those who used it on four or more days in the past month—increased 84.3% between 2000 to 2010, according to a RAND Corporation report commissioned by the White House. “In January 2012, the U.S. White House Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) asked RAND to generate national estimates of the total number of users, total expenditures, and total consumption for four illicit drugs from 2000 to 2010: cocaine (including crack), heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine (or meth),” says the report, What America’s Users Spend on Illicit Drugs: 2000-2010. …

The Air Force just announced the firing of a 2-star general named Michael Carey. He was in command of the 20th Air Force, with 450 ICBMs under his control. His boss, Lt. Gen. James Kowalski, said, "It's unfortunate that I've had to relieve an officer who's had an otherwise distinctive career spanning 35 years of commendable service." The reason officially given was "conduct" and somebody leaked that it was alcohol abuse. Perhaps that is the true and only reason, but something seems odd here. A quick internet search reveals Carey as a model officer who joined as an enlisted man...

The Lockheed Martin F-22 production line is dead, dead, dead. The US Air Force won't buy any more and foreign customers can't by any more. The age of Raptor production is over; long live the Lightning II. Or, is it? Rand's Project Air Force today published a 120-page monograph titled: Ending F-22A Production: Costs and Industrial Base Implications of Alternative Options. Hold on. What "alternative options"? Didn't we already decide the F-22 is dead -- no ifs, ands or earmarks? Rand's analysts explain in their report that the study was commissioned by the US Air Force before the decision was...

If there's one sure way to infuriate the North Koreans, it's to talk of "regime collapse" and "contingency planning". As far as Pyongyang is concerned, such speculation is proof positive of United States-led plotting of a "pre-emptive strike". Against this background, one should not be surprised if the North Koreans see a study conducted by Rand Corporation analyst Bruce Bennett and Dartmouth College scholar Jennifer Lind as the most conclusive evidence to date that the planning is in an advanced stage. Considering Rand's contracts with the U.S. defense establishment, one has to perceive the study as a scenario for an...

What did the U.S. military offensive against Shiite militias in Sadr City in April 2008 and the Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza last December have in common? A lot, apparently, and both operations are being held up by their respective militaries as models for a new way of battling irregular fighters in urban strongholds. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus likes to put up a PowerPoint slide in public briefings detailing the forces, intelligence and surveillance assets involved in the Sadr city battles as representative of a new way of fighting. “This is the answer,” Petraeus said at a...

A number of experts think the U.S. should abandon its “top down” strategy of building an Afghan national army and should switch to arming and paying local tribes to fight the Taliban. Former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, appearing Thursday at a Capitol Hill conference sponsored by RAND, said he closely examined former Soviet counterinsurgencies in Poland and the Ukraine. In both cases, the Soviets successfully levered small, locally recruited militia forces to successfully battle numerically superior anti-regime insurgents. He warned of the perils of trying to police xenophobic Tajiks, Uzbeks and Pahstuns with an Afghan national army. A better...

In preparing for possible future military interventions, the United States needs to shift substantial resources to the Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development, and military-civilian efforts must be integrated from top to bottom, according to a new report issued today by a group of veteran government and private-sector leaders. The report also recommends delegating spending authority to the field level and requiring that civilians and military officers gain extensive cross-agency experience in one another's disciplines. The report was developed to provide a set of national security recommendations to the incoming presidential administration and new Congress. The effort...

News Release OFFICE OF MEDIA RELATIONS 703-413-1100 x5117 and 310-451-6913media@rand.org FOR RELEASE Tuesday June 10, 2008 Virginity Pledges May Help Postpone Intercourse Among Youth Making a virginity pledge may help some young people postpone the start of sexual activity, according to a new RAND Corporation study. Researchers found that adolescents who made pledges to remain virgins until they are married were less likely to be sexually active over the three-year study period than other youth who were similar to them, but who did not make a virginity pledge, according to the study published online by the Journal of Adolescent...

Keith Weissman and Steven Rosen Are PhDs and Middle East Experts Who Did Some Lobbying. They Thought They Were Doing What Washington Insiders Always Do. Thomas O’Donnell didn’t reveal his job when he phoned Keith Weissman in 2004 and got the policy analyst’s wife. He says he didn’t want to scare her. When Weissman returned the call and found out O’Donnell was an FBI agent, his first reaction was to attempt a joke: “What did I do?” “I’m sure you didn’t do anything,” O’Donnell told him. He wanted to meet that day, for five or ten minutes, and get Weissman’s...

"In terms of perception, we've already lost the war," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism analyst who heads the Washington office of RAND Corp., a think tank known for its problem-solving research..

WASHINGTON, Aug. 28 — The Saudi government has spent millions of dollars on well-connected lobbyists and national television advertisements since Sept. 11 in a drive to improve its image among Americans and is poised to spend more as the anniversary of the events approaches. Saudi officials said the publicity was intended to counter intensified anger or skepticism among Americans toward their country, which was home to 15 of the 19 hijackers and which has clashed publicly with the Bush administration over a possible attack against Iraq. A striking sign of the Saudis' eagerness to reach out to the United States...