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"The main reason the Republican establishment overwhelmingly favors Mitt Romney over Newt Gingrich is that Romney stands a better chance of beating Barack Obama," says Jonathan Chait at New York. So it's a problem for Romney that "as the campaign goes on, this seems to be growing less true." A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that negative views of Romney have "spiked" over the past two weeks, from a net +4 favorability rating (39 positive/34 negative) to a -18 rating (31 positive/49 negative) — very similar to Gingrich's -22 rating (29/51). The shift is most notabe among independents, who...

Polls of 2012 GOP contenders: 1) Montana: 545 GOP primary voters from Nov 10-13: OVERALL MODERATES CONSERV Palin 23* 25* 22 Romney 12 10 13 2) North Carolina: 400 GOP primary voters Nov 19-21 Palin 21 27* 20 Romney 10 12 10 3) Virginia: 400 GOP primary voters Nov 10-13 Palin 17 20* 17 Romney 15 18 13 Palin leads in 3 state polls among moderates and trounces Mitt Romney in two of them. Highly significant. Is Palin outflanking Romney now among fiscal conservative-social liberal types?

The Daily Kos pollster finds her in the lead in Montana. Palin 23% Huckabee 22% Gingrich 16% Romney 12% Paul 9% Pawlenty 3% Thune 3% Daniels 2% This poll is further evidence that Mitt Romney has absolutely fallen apart. In 2008, Romney won Montana by a 38-25 margin over Ron Paul. Today, he's running far behind Governor Palin despite the fact that Montana's Republican electorate is comprised of a large percentage of Mormons.