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Afghanistan: Now it's all-out war
AsiaTimes ^ | Feb 23 2004 | Syed Saleem Shahzad

Posted on 02/23/2004 10:58:00 AM PST by swarthyguy

KARACHI - A massive land and air military operation on either side of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is now under way, with the main goals of catching leading commanders of the Afghan resistance, as well as Osama bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

The focal point of the operation at this point is the tribal areas of North and South Waziristan on the Pakistani side, and Paktia and Paktika in Afghanistan. On Sunday, Pakistani Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat confirmed that Pakistani paramilitary troops had been deployed in these tribal areas.

In the coming weeks, the operation is gradually expected to increase in intensity and size and spread to all seven of the Pakistani-administrated tribal areas, and subsequently to all major Afghan cities, including Jalalabad, Asadabad, Gardez, Khost, Zabul and Kandahar, in a bid to wipe out the Afghan resistance.

Well-placed sources stationed in South Waziristan's Wana told Asia Times Online of a large mobilization of Pakistani troops in the two agencies, adding that several villages situated on the border had been evacuated as there were fears that they would be caught in crossfire between Pakistani troops, guerrillas and US-led coalition troops on the Afghan side of the border.

Pakistan law-enforcement agencies have virtually sealed entry and exit routes in North and South Waziristan, and travelers report exhaustive security checkposts.

Across in Afghanistan, coalition troops are conducting house-to-house searches in the town of Khost and its outskirts. Many suspects (mostly bearded with black turbans) have been rounded up. The main targets of operations here are resistance leaders Jalaluddin Haqqani and Saifullah Mansoor and their followers, who are believed to number between 2,000 and 2,500, spread all over the Khost, Paktia, Paktika and Gardez areas.

Asia Times Online can confirm media reports in Pakistan that Pakistan has allowed the US to use some of its air bases for surveillance purposes, including Kohat and Bannu. Residents of North West Frontier Province are already witnessing flights of US "spy" planes over the region.

The latest operation will be characterized by:

Very slow development. Deployment of troops over vast areas. Extensive use of aerial and satellite monitoring.

Coalition forces aim gradually to cordon off huge areas to squeeze out guerrillas, no matter how long it takes. This will lead to the second stage of the offensive, in which the "war" will spread across Pakistan's seven tribal areas and corresponding territory across the border in what the US terms a "hammer and anvil" approach.

Reports over the weekend in Britain's Sunday Express suggested that US and United Kingdom troops had cornered Mullah Omar and bin Laden in an area near Pakistan's Balochistan province. The Pakistan armed forces have denied this, and reject stories that any such foreign troops are operating in the country.

Resistance lying low At present, all the big names in the Afghan resistance movement are based in and around their "home" territory. For instance, Saifullah Mansoor moves around the Zarmat and Gardez area. Jalaluddin Haqqani and his guerrillas shelter in the mountainous terrain of Paktia province. Mullah Omar shuttles between Kandahar, Orugzan and Zabul. Ustad Fareed and Kashmir Khan are positioned in their Kunar Valley base. Key resistance leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, meanwhile, is the odd one out. He is in Kunar province, although his Khiroti tribe comes from Ghazni. He was born in Kunduz, but raised and educated in the capital Kabul. From his headquarters in Sorobi (near Kabul), he waged his battles against the former monarch Zahir Shah, the invading Soviets and the communist regime of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Now he has made the Kunar Valley his base. A part of his strategy has been to restore communication with his former mujahideen friends in the guerrilla war against the Soviets in the 1980s who are now a part of the US-sponsored Hamid Karzai administration. These include Ismail Khan from Herat, Uzbek warlord General Rashid Dostum and Professor Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf.

Hekmatyar was recently offered a truce by the US and a role in the future political mainstream, but the veteran fighter has yet to respond. However, close associates of his Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan believe that at this point Hekmatyar will not leave the resistance, although he will not completely slam the door on dialogue. Insiders say that he aims to wait until the US leaves Afghanistan, at which point he will jump into the political pan. The late Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Masoud adopted a similar strategy with Dr Najibullah's government in 1992. Masoud remained in touch with Najibullah's administration even though Masoud was at war with the communist regime. So when Najibullah decided to throw in the towel, he did so to Masoud's forces to the north, rather than to the Hezb-i-Islami forces in the south.

The response of the resistance to the new offensive has been deliberately muted. Even suicide missions and random guerrilla attacks have been scaled back as the resistance lies low, possibly until a major spring offensive is launched.

The number of foreign fighters in the resistance has dwindled, with only those Arabs and other fighters who have been in the country for many years and who speak local dialects and know the terrain left. Most of them are allied with commanders such as Saifullah Mansoor and Jalaluddin Haqqani. A few are stand-alone operators, such as bin Laden. At present they are believed to be hiding in an area that begins in Chitral and ends in Dir on the Pakistani side. Another possibility is the Khyber Agency.

As long as bin Laden remains at large, stories of his supposed whereabouts will help the coalition cause in spreading its net further and further. Pakistani troops have already been sent to Mohmand Agency, where tribal leaders have been given a warning to surrender their weapons or face the consequences. Next in line are Mohmand, Bajur, Orackzai and Khyber agencies. The situation is likely to reach a climax in April or May. One way or another, a big war looms in the region.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: afghanistan; bushdoctrineunfold; dashtileili; fatheislam; hammerandanvil; huntingbinladen; infinitejustice; kunar; oef; pakistan; southasia; swarthyguy; taliban
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To: Dog; milestogo; knighthawk
Depending on which posters you do believe, he's already dead or even captured, perhaps in Iran.

But I would not bet against you.

And here's something tangential but shows the cunningness and overweening opportunism of the Pakistanis.

Pakistan To Test-Fire Nuclear-Capable Missiles -Kyodo



NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Pakistan plans to test nuclear-capable Shaheen-2 missiles within the next few days, Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri said Monday, the Kyodo news agency reports.

He added the schedule for the Shaheen-2 missile tests was finalized at the last Nuclear Command Authority meeting in Islamabad.

The NCA held meetings Jan. 31 and Feb. 4, after which President Pervez Musharraf told a press conference Pakistan would carry out tests of the 2,000- kilometer range Shaheen-2 missiles, Kyodo reports.

Kasuri didn't disclose how many missile tests are planned, but informed official sources told Kyodo that tests of three missiles with different payloads are likely.


Dow Jones Newswires 02-23-040806ET

Interesting when juxtaposed with these.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1080628/posts
U.S. and Indian Air Forces train together
eMilitary.org ^ | 2004-02-18 | 1st Lt. Eric Badger 3rd Wing Public Affairs

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1083177/posts
Indian air force to take part in first exercises with NATO forces
Yahoo News ^ | Februari 22 2004 | AFP

61 posted on 02/23/2004 3:31:52 PM PST by swarthyguy
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I keep reading "hammer and anvil" as the approach. For now I will use that as a keyword for the operation.
62 posted on 02/23/2004 4:25:45 PM PST by Libertarianize the GOP (Ideas have consequences)
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To: Dog
System accepting....Hunting Bin Laden... as a keyword. Also infinite Justice.
63 posted on 02/23/2004 6:44:24 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: archy
Thanks for the info.

Reason to believe there were heavy armed battles between the Taliban and our allies, the Northern Alliance during the Fall of 2001-Winter 2002. Still vague on whether there could have been battles leaving us with 200+ dead.

Nonetheless, it is reasonable to believe that a lot of heavy stuff was happening there, not covered by Western press.

I'm sure that that's just how we wnated it played too.

64 posted on 02/25/2004 12:24:57 PM PST by happygrl
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To: happygrl; Ragtime Cowgirl
Reason to believe there were heavy armed battles between the Taliban and our allies, the Northern Alliance during the Fall of 2001-Winter 2002. Still vague on whether there could have been battles leaving us with 200+ dead.

200 examples of older versions of Soviet armored combat vehicles, but fitted with the engines, armament, fire control [including thermal sights] and running gear of the latest and best Russian fighting vehicles. In a swell test of such equipment in the field, perhaps involving some *advisors* or *technicians* involved with the further development of that material. And also perhaps veterans of an earlier visit in Afghanistan, with an interest in evening the balance for some of their fallen fellow afgantsy, perhaps.

They may well not have been Americans, but Russian.

Nonetheless, it is reasonable to believe that a lot of heavy stuff was happening there, not covered by Western press.

Concur. Aside from the direct conflict between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban/Al Qaeda supporters, the possibilities of old tribal, political or hired conflicting loyalties could well also be at work, as well as any number of permutations of possible lifelong feuds and vendetti.

I'm sure that that's just how we wnated it played too.

Having previously worked with the T-55 tank, I had the opportunity to go to Afghanistan as one of the American *trainers* working with the reformed Afghani tank battalion/s; I picked a standby job that didn't call for my involvement unless the principal American officer involved became incapacitated instead, and that happily didn't come to pass. But watching the Afghanis play Bukashi from armored vehicles instead of horseback would have been...interesting.

During the festive Muslim holiday celebration of Eid I attended a Bukashi match sponsored by Shamooq, the senior military commander in Mazar.

In this game, red and black teams of horsemen compete to place the body of a headless calf in one of the two lime white circles at either end of the field. The captains of each team wear the headgear of a tank officer (padded leather - taken from the dead bodies of Russian armoured crew) .The game seems to have few rules but requires consummate riding skill and daring. Also, the riders in this brutal contest have served under Shamooq, who sits cross-legged and turbaned - a warrior lord - in the central position at the front of the grandstand. Often, horses and horsemen crush together up against the concrete of the stand, within touching distance of their unflinching leader.

The audience for the Bukashi tournament sits on concrete tiers. Conspicuously, two armed American Special Forces officers have been given seats of honour to watch the event, and be watched - the new allies. These big, clean, highly groomed Americans stand out from the turbaned Afghans, not just because they have been given the only white plastic seats, elevating them above all others, but because of their freshness - they have a Hollywood artificiality, as if they had stepped out from McDonald's self-closing doors, air-conditioning hissing behind them, to find themselves, like the cast of Stargate, in another dimension. Their Special Forces M16 rifles resemble toy ray guns beside the Afghan's ancient Kalashnikovs. As a photographer I noticed the new top-of-the-line professional Nikon one of the Americans used to snap his souvenir pics.

Then there is a surprise turn of events - the star rider offers his best horse to the American ally. The tallest of the two American soldiers at first shows reticence about accepting the offer to ride, but his colleague prods him into action.

Once on the horse, the expectation was that he would show off his equestrian skills and join the game - but his horse had another idea and bolted, galloping off in the other direction with the American struggling to keep in the saddle. The crowd roared with laughter. It took a long time and several Afghan handlers before the horse was brought under control and the American could dismount with a degree of dignity. At least he was not thrown.

This farce reinforced my impression that Afghanistan is a kind of Disneyland for the US forces and media.

The sheer scale of Mazlakh refugee camp is overwhelming. This camp on the Iranian border, outside of Herat, has the sense of an exodus of biblical proportions - a sea of suffering humanity stretching out to distant mountains at the horizon.

This vision shimmers not from a heat haze - it is very cold - but from human movement. Standing on the roof of our truck to get some sense of perspective, all these moving dots in the landscape resembled digital imaging, pixels on a gigantic computer screen. My brain could not cope with the reality that all these moving elements in this infinitely detailed panorama were people with needs like clean water, medicine for sick children, food and latrines.
From Gittoes' Report The art of survival, March, 2002
65 posted on 02/25/2004 1:07:51 PM PST by archy (Concrete shoes, cyanide, TNT! Done dirt cheap! Neckties, contracts, high voltage...Done dirt cheap!)
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To: swarthyguy
No mercy for you ,ever.:-) We're still under water here,though the merchants are saying this was one of the most lucrative Carnivals ever. The cops say 13% higher arrests, too. Oh good and bad.

What's your take on the Asia Times article and in general?

66 posted on 02/25/2004 1:12:53 PM PST by gatorbait (Yesterday, today and tomorrow......The United States Army)
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To: gatorbait
I assume then that the local muslims, whether wahhabs or sufis haven't assimilated enough to have their own Burka Babes Krewes strutting around to celebrate this variation of the faiths of the "peoples of the book" and the sons of Ibrahim. Quelle mal!
67 posted on 02/25/2004 1:31:12 PM PST by swarthyguy (You have to remember that if you grow thorns, you will not harvest roses - Ayman Al-Zawahiri)
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To: Dog
You can go to the CIA website and they've got all kinds of maps and other information.
68 posted on 02/25/2004 1:40:00 PM PST by dljordan
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To: swarthyguy
Nope, you'd be right, not yet..Imagine burkas,beads and flashing....
Pang
69 posted on 02/25/2004 1:57:23 PM PST by gatorbait (Yesterday, today and tomorrow......The United States Army)
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To: gatorbait
Look, MA!

Brazilian samba dancer Luiza Brunet (R) Queen of the Drums of the Imperatriz Leopoldinense Samba school performs on Tuesday, 24 February 2004 during the second night of Rio de Janeiro' s samba schools' parade at the Sambadrome arena.

70 posted on 02/25/2004 2:09:13 PM PST by swarthyguy (You have to remember that if you grow thorns, you will not harvest roses - Ayman Al-Zawahiri)
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To: swarthyguy
If only I could get pictures. I keep sending cameras.
71 posted on 02/25/2004 2:19:59 PM PST by armymarinemom (The family reunion is moving to Iran this year-Central location and a shorter trip for the kids)
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To: swarthyguy
Now,THAT'S a costume! Is this that modified Burka we've heard about?
72 posted on 02/25/2004 2:29:44 PM PST by gatorbait (Yesterday, today and tomorrow......The United States Army)
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To: swarthyguy
Get'em guys!
73 posted on 02/25/2004 2:30:31 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: armymarinemom
Ah, yes, we're all starved for those.

There were some of Humvees in Jalalabad and closer to the Khyber Pass and Pakistan.

I doubt any pictures of US servicemen in Pakistan would ever see the light of day.
74 posted on 02/25/2004 2:36:48 PM PST by swarthyguy (You have to remember that if you grow thorns, you will not harvest roses - Ayman Al-Zawahiri)
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To: archy
They may well not have been Americans, but Russian.

AWWKKK!!

That sure puts a different spin on it.

75 posted on 02/25/2004 3:04:14 PM PST by happygrl
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To: archy
Having previously worked with the T-55 tank, I had the opportunity to go to Afghanistan as one of the American *trainers* ,

And here I thought you were just an ole newspaper fella cuttin' and pastin' away....

76 posted on 02/25/2004 3:07:36 PM PST by happygrl
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To: happygrl
Having previously worked with the T-55 tank, I had the opportunity to go to Afghanistan as one of the American *trainers* ,

And here I thought you were just an ole newspaper fella cuttin' and pastin' away....

I'm that as well. I got the 1991 Beidler award for for my columns on Desert Shield/Storm/Sabre, though my plan of rolling into Baghdad with a pal's Turkish armor unit moving in from the north ended with the 100-hour time limit and the rug being pulled out from under by Bush I. I do not think it would have been pretty.

77 posted on 02/25/2004 3:22:48 PM PST by archy (Concrete shoes, cyanide, TNT! Done dirt cheap! Neckties, contracts, high voltage...Done dirt cheap!)
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To: happygrl
They may well not have been Americans, but Russian.
AWWKKK!!

That sure puts a different spin on it.

It'd account for *Western* casualties not from US forces. And I doubt Putin would want the loss of 50 or so kontraktniki- number adjusted for jihidist dukhai inflation- made public, given the bad taste in the Russian people's mouths for the lastr Russian go-'round in that part of the world.

Of course, it'd provide source material for another Lyube song or two...

78 posted on 02/25/2004 3:31:36 PM PST by archy (Concrete shoes, cyanide, TNT! Done dirt cheap! Neckties, contracts, high voltage...Done dirt cheap!)
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To: swarthyguy
As long as we get three heads on a pike have at it!
79 posted on 02/25/2004 3:47:28 PM PST by winker
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