The Coming Mideast War? (probably)

Wall Street Journal ^ | Mar 27, 2002 | JAMES TARANTO

[My Identity]

What we are witnessing looks like joint preparations by the Palestinian Authority, Syria, its Lebanese client, Iraq, and Iran, for war on a regional scale, against both Israel and U.S. interests. I fear we may face a major, sudden, external assault on Israel, meant to precede U.S. action against the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, and indeed prevent the U.S. from going there by enmiring it in the defence of Israel.

[My Identity]

The thread on the Ottawa article is here.

[colorado tanker]

So, is the Beirut summit really a war council in disguise? Is that the real reason why Egypt and Jordan boycotted??

[My Identity]

Is that the real reason why Egypt and Jordan boycotted

I suspect it is because of the various death threats against assorted Arab despots that are floating around in Lebabnon. (or at least that are being reported in trhe media)...

[tsomer]

It was reported that the Palestinian delegation walked out because Arafart was denied input.

How does this effect these proceedings?

[colorado tanker]

"Death threats." Makes sense. Syria still runs Lebanon. The two pieces indicate Syria is in the war camp and Egypt and Jordan are not. Wouldn't put it past Syria to try to take out a couple of rivals.

[Jamesthe???]

David Dolan, an American who's lived in Israel for years, has written a book detailing his prediction that Israel's neighbors will attack her and that Israel will respond by nukeing Damascus. I think they'll probably nuke Baghdad as well and possibly Riyadh(sp)

Visit here for more info.

[Noumenon]

Israel will respond by nukeing Damascus. I think they'll probably nuke Baghdad as well and possibly Riyadh(sp)

That would be a good start. Throw in Tehran, Tripoli and Mogadishu for a follow-up.

[js1138]

We have 500,000 troops in Saudi? Or that's how many they've authorized?

We maxed out at 500,000 in Vietnam after several years of buildup, including the draft.

I believe I was number 499,997, arriving in January, 1968.

[headsonpikes]

"That would be a good start..."

What we need is a good finish. ;^)

[JasonC]

"a real risk the Americans could find themselves fighting, alongside Israel and Turkey, against all of their common enemies in the region, simultaneously"

Strange to call that a "risk". The more the merrier. All of them will get their clocks cleaned. I'd say the risk involved in pretty much entirely to the would-be common enemies. But it they want it, all they have to do is come and get it.

As for the "perhaps expensive for Israel" line, based on the supposed threat of supposed Iraqi WMD, it is all bluff. He doesn't have any nukes, and all the other things that travel these days under the heading WMD are really just weapons of mass hysteria (for those in Palm Beach, that means the frigging things just plain don't work), and are no great threat to Israel or to anybody else.

[colorado tanker]

How does the Palestinian walkout affect the summit? Good question - politics in the Arab world make Machiavelli's rules look like Hoyle. I would speculate that Arafat pulled his delegation to head off any acceptance of the Saudi peace plan even if Israel let him attend at the last minute. Why? Arafat believes the bombings and Israeli response have solidified his hold on power, which a year ago looked tenuous. Bottom line - Arafat thinks the status quo is working for him.

[bybybill]

This time we won`t need 500,000 troops---don`t be suprised if GWB takes out Saddamn with far less cause the Iraqi army doesn`t want another 'Road to Basra'. Chaney`s trip was to line up the ducks----Saddamn won`t last out the year

[OK]

The area is set up for "The Perfect Storm". Throw in Pakistan and you have total chaos from India to Egypt for a while.

By the way, this would also be a perfect time for N. Korea to lunge south, and for China to lunge at Taiwan.

[CasearianDaoist]

It would happen.

[Alkhin]

Why we havent joined Israel to kick some Arabian butt by now is beyond me. Stupidheads like Arafat deserve the spectre of the US joining forces with Israel.

[JasonC]

"What I don't understand is why we have given Iraq the initiative"

The Bush administration wants to use bases in Saudi. Works better operationally than just through Turkey. The Saudis want the Israel-Palestinian stuff quieted down first. The administration is trying to accomodate them, in order to get their OK to use bases in Saudi against Iraq. They do not want the Saudis to say "we don't want Americans here anymore, please go home". Whether we did or didn't, it would be awkward. Either doing without the bases, or dropping the pretence that we are there as friends and allies, instead of as occupiers (as Laden says).

Which is something of a game of chicken on the Saudi's part. But as long as it seemed possible the Israeli-Palestinian stuff might be made to quiet down for 18 months or so - along lines put forward by the Saudis and by the US - then it seemed like the right move order. Get Iraq with the territories quiet - that minimizes the internal political strain on the Saudis, and makes it easier for them to go along with US action against Iraq.

But Arafat sees all of the above, of course. And knows that it makes him important, only as long as the situation in the territories stays white-hot. So he wants a move order of his own - no movement on Iraq by the US, and in the meantime war on Israel by the rest of the Arab world. Which rides and stokes the pro-terrorist side of the current wave of polarization in the Arab world (which the Saudis are merely trying to finesse).

So far, Israel has dutifully done what the US has asked, even though, so far, Arafat's own strategy has made a hash of the US move order preference. At some point, if the US does not wise up, Israel is going to realize that following the unworkable American plan (go quiet now, do Saddam, deal with Arafat later) is not going to work. When they figure that out, they will presumably go after Arafat themselves, seriously and immediately, whatever the US (and Saudis) want or say.

[SpaceBar]

The reason you don't hear about pizzarias blowing up in "palestinian" territory is that they don't have any pizzarias to blow up. They are too busy fiddling in basements with time-delay fuses and explosive packs. Isreal is a democratic nation defending its sovereignty and land. It is a tiny sliver on the asia minor/african coast. Not a splendid piece of realestate but it is theirs. Like it or not.

[Mat_Helm]

They are getting ready to have the largest and deadliest conventional bomb ever made, guided by satelite, delivered by stealth, to take out Saddam as we speak.