California race shapes up as economy vs. abortion

Washington Times ^ | 3/26/02 | Ralph Z. Hallow

[kattracks]

SAN DIEGO

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

What the article neglects to mention is that Simon lead Riordan among women voters by 10 pts. It also neglects to mention that Simon leads against Davis among women voters also. So much for the 'women as baby killers' argument.

If Mr. South thinks he can rewrite the history of the past four years, he is mistaken. They can spend all the money they want, but it is etched in voters' brains and in our everyday lives.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for posting this article!

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[Carry_Okie]

"We're going to point out the energy crisis, the worst budget deficit in California history — caused by his big-spending ways — and the schools in Silicon Valley ranked last in the nation in science, near last in reading and math. So we're going to tell that story."

This is standard fare negative advertising and might work for most candidates, but is an ill-advised tactic for Bill Simon. As it is, Mr. Simon comes across as "Mr. Clean-n-Decent." If he goes negative, it will feed Davis' pitch that conservatives are mean-spirited. This is a stupid tactic that hurts his chance to sell a positive image to swing voters, which is what worked for him against Riordan. If Simon doesn't stay positive at least in the early going, Davis' amply-funded negatives with full media complicity will stick.

There are better ways for Bill Simon to present himself by turning Davis' negative attacks against him. The best tactic is to show how common decency, self-control, and charity are the very values so badly needed for California's kids. That is a universal message. He should then pull out his record for having provided exactly that example at Covenant House in LA, where he has seen the evil fruits of what is being taught in Californai schools. It will come across as genuine and is natural to the man. Bill Simon is too kind a person to go negative effectively. He is stronger if he sticks with a positive message. Only once that positive image is totally set in the minds of the voters, will a patient, clear, and rational exposition of the disaster that Davis has been to the future of California's lower middle class, work to seal the little geek-monster's fate.

[Carry_Okie]

One each above plunk.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

How should Simon use the issue from this?

Who's watching the children? : Ex-convicts abound in child care, parents unaware

[Diddle E. Squat]

What's the trend these days in CA on abortion, since for the country as a whole its moving pro-life? (Although somewhat incrementally, stronger personal beliefs against it, yet not ready to translate that into overturning Roe v. Wade. But the trend is there.)

[Carry_Okie]

So far as I can tell the trend in California is flat and heavily "pro-choice." Last time I saw Simon asked about the abortion issue on TV (KSBW), he booted it by running away from it, changing the subject, and talking about electrical power. I think he has a stronger tack available, by changing the question from the media's favorite: "choice versus abortion" (where he not only loses, there are no State-level deliverables), to one of "Lets talk about what I CAN do about this issue as governor, since I can't overturn Supreme Court. Amorality taught in public schools leads to unwanted pregnancy and costs kids dearly, and I know what to do about it. The schools are violating parental notification laws. Those laws need to be enforced." The latter is a positive message, still on topic, that can't be construed as mean. It will appeal to parents across the board and turn the discussion from abortion to one of California's miserable socialist schools as destructive to all but the elitists. If Davis goes back to abortion after that, he will look like the bitter one-issue candidate that he will then be.

Simon is in a perfect position to win over a whole range of new constituencies for conservatives. I can personally tell you that if he plays his cards correctly he can even win the environmental vote while reinforcing private property rights.

[Carry_Okie]

It's a perfect issue showing where socialism really leads. He should grab it and offer an alternative. (If he needs a secular regulatory architecture to assure excellent child care, I have one that he can use...)

[connectthedots]

"It's the economy, stupid" has a familiar ring to it.

[stimulate]

Sal Russo,campaign manager for Simon, is right: abortion is not the issue,although Gary South,campaign manager, is trying to make it one, because that's all Davis has to show for himself, which is to make negative accusations against Simon. If he can spook the voters to believe that Simon,if elected govenor,will prohibit abortion, he can win re-election. Reardon lost the election because he let himself get sucked in to the Davis team.Reardon let them define him. It sounds like Gary South is really scared,otherwise he wouldn't be trying to spook the Simon campaign and hope that they will accept his phony advice.

[AmericaUnited]

He also noted that Mr. Davis enjoys the historic advantage of incumbency: "We haven't had a governor of either party defeated for reelection since 1942."

That's what is going to make Davis's defeat so sweat.

[jaq]

If he goes negative, it will feed Davis' pitch that conservatives are mean-spirited.
That's B.S. The Republican Party has listened to the liberal media for way too long regarding "negative" advertising.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with pointing out your opponent's miserable track record. Voters know the difference between that and a personal attack.
Ronald Reagan did so during his campaigns and I think that's why he won. Although I can't recall his one opponent, I do remember the ad: Bills pouring through the letter opening in the front door while a voice says, "Gov. Dukakis (I think) wants to do for you what he's done for Mass."
It was an effective ad which pointed out the "tax-and-spend" method the Demos so love. We need to get back to that type of advertising.

[Gophack]

If it's economy v. abortion, Simon wins.

[Carry_Okie]

I was speaking specifically of the abortion and social issues. Do you really think Simon ought to go on the attack there in California? If you do you are quite mistaken.

[Free the USA]

bttt

[chimera]

Clear-thinking and knowledgeable voters will know that the "Simon will outlaw abortion" argument is a bogeyman. As long as Roe v. Wade stands, there is little a state governor can do on this issue other than take a moral position, and perhaps tinker around the edges a bit (e.g., educational policy, state funding on counseling, health care, etc.). OTOH, a state's governor is in a strong position to influence the economy of a state. If the race is defined as abortion vs. economy, its a no-brainer...for those who have brains.

Therein lies the rub. My fear is that the sucker moms and other gullible sheeple will be carried away by the emotion of the argument. The media, especially in CA, will eat this one up. There's nothing in the world they'd like more than to see a conservative, pro-life candidate defeated. My guess is that Davis will play this issue to the exclusion of all others, because he has nothing of substance to offer. And if the energy issue is raised, he'll blame it all on Bush, Cheney, and Enron. If emotion carries the day, Simon and the GOP will get creamed (again).

[detsaoT]

"Funding of medical abortions is guaranteed under the California Constitution."

I have searched the California Constitution on various keywords, as well as manually perusing the provisions within, and I am unable to find a single phrase that supports this argument. Does anyone know what the hell this guy is talking about?

(If this is true, it's yet another reason why I will never recommend that any Conservative move there; if false, then it's not like I really needed another reason, but it certainly would seem to indicate a vast misunderstanding by the population of California with respect to the contents of their Constitution...)

:) ttt

[detsaoT]

Here's a bump. My apologies for being a day late and a dollar short re: this article. It passed under my radar until I remembered reading it in the paper. I hope someone can shed some light on my concern/question...

:) ttt