Posted on 03/28/2002 2:30:36 AM PST by kattracks
(CNSNews.com) - Bill Simon, California's Republican nominee for governor, has a lead in the polls over Democratic incumbent Gray Davis, but there are questions about whether Simon will be able to rally even members of his own party behind his pro-life conservative candidacy.
"The problem with the state's Republicans is that they're split" between conservatives and moderates, explains Lawrence L. Giventer, a University of California political science professor. "They're fragmented and have been for quite a while."
California venture capitalist and GOP fundraiser Gerald Parsky is perhaps the most visible sign of intra-party turmoil that threatens to dampen enthusiasm for Simon.
"This party can only win if we change the image ... that the [state] GOP is dominated by extremists," Parsky was quoted as saying after the March 5 primary in which the more liberal Richard Riordan was handily defeated by Simon in the Republican primary.
"I'm not going to be involved in the [general election] campaign," Parsky declared at the time.
Parsky has criticized the state GOP for not doing more to reach out to women, Latinos and minority voters. Republicans currently hold only one statewide office (secretary of state) and Democrats hold a majority of the state's Congressional seats as well as majorities in both houses of the state Legislature.
There is speculation that Parsky may still be smarting over a decade-old business disagreement with Simon's father. But Parsky, who is Bush's top political operative in California, recently distanced himself from his post-primary comments, saying that he does not consider Simon an extremist.
Parsky also appeared with Simon to announce, "The president is fully supportive of Bill Simon's campaign and the entire ticket." Both Bush and Parsky had supported Riordan in the primary.
Bush is now scheduled to host a fundraiser for Simon in late April and another former supporter of Riordan, U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, has also endorsed Simon.
Shawn Steel, chairman of the California Republican Party, was upset about Parsky's original comments, but said Simon would find strong support within the party for his candidacy.
"I'm very concerned when any party leader makes statements that they deeply regret later," said Steel.
But, Steel insisted, "nobody is mad at Bill Simon" because "he didn't attack anybody, and nobody attacked him" during the primary. "Clearly, Bill is an eminently likable guy. He's worked to meet with all groups in the party, and he's really done a good job."
California Republicans may eventually unite behind Simon if only to avoid a repeat of New Jersey's 2001 election disaster. Conservative candidate Bret Schundler won the New Jersey gubernatorial primary over a more liberal Republican who had been chosen to run by the state's party establishment. In the general election campaign, most of the New Jersey GOP distanced itself from Schundler, who then went down to a resounding defeat at the hands of Democrat Jim McGreevey.
Steel pointed to the upcoming Bush fundraiser as a sign of support for the California gubernatorial candidate, saying that the party plans to raise $5 million from that event - 10 percent of the total campaign warchest Simon will need to wage an effective campaign against Davis.
"That shows a tremendous consensus across the board with all Republicans, that we've got to win this governorship," said Steel. "Because winning the governorship is going to help us win the presidency. That's how everyone sees it.
"This is a Bush Republican party," Steel continued. "So ... we want to find ways of helping the president in 2004; and we believe that California should be a solid state for Bush."
Giventer is less certain that the support - including the campaign dollars - will be forthcoming.
"It's too soon to answer," said Giventer. "Everybody is going to take a breather and let it simmer down a bit, try to lick their wounds. We've got six months." Election watchers should be looking for indicators by summertime, said Giventer.
"Simon has to somehow figure out a strategy to coalesce Republicans" by turning to rural parts of the state -- central California, said Giventer. "The problem is that you could take the central valley of California, all of rural California, and that's like putting on one side of a scale 100 pounds against the 800-pound gorilla of Los Angeles."
According to a recent Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll of likely voters, Simon now leads Davis, 48 to 41 percent.
See Earlier Stories:
Conservative Candidate Wins California GOP Primary
Simon's Conservatism Works For Him, Against Him In California
Simon's Conservatism Works For Him, Against Him In California
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They better darn well!
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