These are the numbers that matter, IMHO. People already know Grayout. His unfavorables will be hard to change. Andecdotally, many 'Rats I know say they will not, or cannot, vote for him. Go Simon Go.....
If memory serves, Simon's inhouse polls show him with a 7% lead. Couple that with Davis lead in this poll and you have a 21% swing.
One, or both of the polls are way off and the accurate picture is not being presented.
1) Davis is at 43%. The recent public policy group poll (I forget the name, but it was a post on FR) had Davis at 41%. This shows that his support is a constant.2) 50% of the people have an unfavorable impression while only 11% have no impression. His name ID is virtually 100% and half of everyone doesn't like him.
3) This poll is among all registered voters, not likely voters, which ALWAYS skews the numbers toward the Democrat (conservatives vote in a higher propensity than liberals of all parties).
4) Simon has a larger "no opinion/not heard of" which means that he has a better opportunity to get those people on his team: it's far harder to swing someone from "don't like you" to "like you" to "don't know" to "like you." Davis is DEFINITELY NOT LIKED.
5) Davis' Central Valley numbers are pitiful, and that's the largest swing area of the state.
6) The so-called "women's vote" ... Davis is only getting 43% which is EXACTLY his overall vote percentage in this poll. NO advantage on the women's vote. You would think that with all the "women's right to choose" crap he's been spewing, the women would be falling all over themselves for the opportunity to vote for a pro-abort: NOT HAPPENING!
There are lots of other things in this poll, but I think that these are the key points. TURNOUT IS EVERYTHING. Conservatives must be united for Simon and work to get him elected. We have a real opportunity to put in a real conservative. Personally, I don't know why he wants the job since Davis has run the deficit up to $22 billion (net loss of $35 billion) and is using smoke and mirrors to delude us into thinking that he's getting rid of the budget deficit. Simon is going to have a LOT to fix from Davis and the Democrats fiscal malfeasance. But I would rather than Simon fixing the problem than Davis raising taxes ... which is the FIRST thing he'll do in January IF he wins re-election and everyone knows it!
Go Simon! DUMP DAVIS!
Bush is in CA today doing a couple of fundraisers for Simon. Simon is going to have to be front and center from here until November. The media is going to go after him hard so he needs his own mug out there all the time.