Davis leads Simon in poll (But California voters less than thrilled with choices)

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 28 April 2002 | John Wildermuth

[CounterCounterCulture]

Gov. Gray Davis holds a solid 14-point lead over Republican Bill Simon in the new Field Poll, but plenty of California voters aren't too happy with their choices for governor.

While Davis has a 43 percent to 29 percent margin over Simon, a Los Angeles businessman making his first try for public office, 28 percent of likely voters remain undecided. Only 39 percent of those surveyed have a favorable impression of the governor compared to 50 percent who don't like him.

[CounterCounterCulture]

Barf-o-rama

[ChadGore]

We have a lot of work to do on the left coast.

[CounterCounterCulture]

Also reported in today's San Diego Union-Tribune and Sacramento Bee(hind)

[CounterCounterCulture]

PING

[anniegetyourgun]

Hhhmmm, those Davis unfavorables must be exploitable - as are the undecided. I love the undecided idiots - without them, there would have no hope.

[Recovering_Democrat]

ugh. I hate it. But, Californians will get what they vote for. Have fun payin' those high tax and utility rates, California. You deserve it.

[Mr. Jeeves]

This is the first honest poll we've seen. Simon has yet to give moderate Californians any reason to vote for him, other than that fact that he is not Gray Davis. He still has time, but his campaign has been dead silent since the primary win. He nees to get moving - with multiple, splashy appearances in the company of GWB.

[ElkGroveDan]

OK, Let's all calm down folks.

Remember that the Field Poll predicted Governor Bradley in 82 and 86, Governor Feinstein in 1990, Governor Kathleen Brown in 1994, Governor Al Checci in 1998 and Governor Richard Riordan earlier this year.

The Field poll hits ALL voters including people who have been registered for 20 years and never ever voted before. I actually take great confort in knowing that Bill Simon is keeping pace with Republican victories of previous elections.

[CounterCounterCulture]

That's a good track record. LOL

[CounterCounterCulture]

Earlier thread:
Davis has 14-point lead, poll finds (Scam Diego Union Tribune)

[WOSG]

"Moderate" voters dont want better budget policies, better education policies and a Governor who will lead instead of engaging in PR and spin all the time????

Yup, Bill Simon needs to get out there and pound away on his message. The real story of the poll is the election is up for grabs. Davis will win if he can drive up Simon's negatives enough to scare moderate back to doing the dumb thing - re-elect Davis. Simon will win if he can sell the moderates on his alternate vision for California.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

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[Euro-American Scum]

The liberal propaganda begins. . .

[Dog Gone]

Simon has yet to give moderate Californians any reason to vote for him, other than that fact that he is not Gray Davis.

That probably will be enough, especially since Davis has since come out in favor of reparations for slavery.

[cartoonistx]

He needs to hammer it home that Grayout Davis absolutly, positively will RAISE YOUR TAXES! No other message will get through.

[Aunt Polgara]

The Field Poll?? Honest??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Aunt Polgara]

check out this thread

[Common Tator]

Annie the thing about Field polls is they are done from way out in left field. They almost always wildly exagerate the support for the leftist candidates.

It is likely that Davis will win the election, but the field poll is probably about 25 points too high for Davis. At this point I would say 10 points down for Davis would be fantastic for him. Most observers would put Simon ahead at this point by 5 to 10 points. If Davis is no more than 20 points behind in August he will likely win.

With the money Davis has to spend, he will go very negative on Simon. The attack will not be the usual neagative attack to reduce the base Republican vote. Negative campaigns are usually used to drive down the vote of the other side's base. I think the Davis attack will be to turn the center against Simon. I think the Davis attack ads will run from the middle of September until election day. They will be designed to scare the center and left of center away from Simon. They will likely work. I think the Davis attack on Simon will be much like the Truman attack on Dewey in 1948 or the LBJ attack on Goldwater in 1964.

With California abbout 60/40 Democrat, Davis only needs to win the Democratic base and a bit over 1/3 of the center to win. Simon has to win all his base and better than 2/3 of the center to win. That is next to impossible.

If Davis is successful it may usher in a new way to do negative campaigns. I have always thought it is easier to pry the center away from either side than it is to drive the base awayt.

The base almost always comes home. That is true for both parties. Even when they are very angry, the base comes home. If it looks like their candidate has a good shot atf winning they come home in greater numbers.

Playing to his base is what Al Gore did in 2000. That is likely the reason he lost. Davis will not try to get people to vote for him. He will try to make them afraid to vote for Simon. That usually works.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Hmm -- Good thoughts!

[anniegetyourgun]

Then Simon will have to fight fire with fire. There's plenty that is scary about Davis too. Simon should point to his mismanagement, lack of fiduciary responsibility, and outright lies to the people. He should be cast as a borderline communist and solidly socialist.