Davis leads Simon in poll (But California voters less than thrilled with choices)

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 28 April 2002 | John Wildermuth

[Torie]

New York hates airbrains the most, but California is in the hunt for that mindset.

[daviddennis]

A good analysis, I think.

What gives me hope for Simon, though, is that I think a lot of the Democratic base isn't going to bother to vote because they don't like Davis any more than we do.

You can see Davis is worried about this, since otherwise you wouldn't see issues like reparations taking centre stage. Most likely he wants interest groups to remember this come election day, while everyone else has had time to forget. In the mean time, you'll see Jesse Jackson and the black preachers shout from their pulpits that you'd better vote for Davis because he will get us the bucks. (Of course all the bucks will flow into Jackson's pocket, but ... never mind).

Far as I can tell, he's delivered the pork to interest groups like teachers and (most notoriously) prison guards, so they're going to turn out for him in large numbers. But I think a lot of Democratic true believers are going to stay home.

D

[spintreebob]

"There is not a lot of enthusiasm for either candidate,"

You're right. Turnout decides it. The effective organization that finds their side's voters and gets them to the polls wins.

In Illinois, precinct captains historically did that. Recently Dems have had success with phone calls that scare their voters into getting to the polls. They have identified which scare message and which celebrity phone call is best with each demographic group. Some get Ed Asner, or Jesse Jackson, or Paul Simon (the retired senator, not the singer for you on the left coast).

[Commander8]

I'm casting my vote for Bill Simon. It's great to see a true blue conservative as Republican nominee in a major race.

[afuturegovernor]

I was wondering when (if) Davis would pull out in front again. My goodness Simon is getting killed by 14 points. Something went wrong.