Gov. Davis Runs Ad Attacking Opponent

Here we go, Davis is gonna start using that $30,000,000!

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Gov. Davis Runs Ad Attacking Opponent

Gee what a surprise.

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What a boob. I wish I could remember that Dr. Suess quote.

There are many things in campaigns that are nearly always true.If a challenger accuses an incumbant of doing X, and the incumbant can prove that the challenger also did X, the incumbant wins.

The only possible atack that Simon had on Davis was mismanagement. Now we learn that Simon can't make that stick, becuase Simon has a history of mismangement too.

What this means is that Simon, as a savings and loan owner, made very bad decisions based on a business bubble. What Davis did was make some very bad business decisions based on a business bubble.

In all of Davis's political history he has yet to lead with his best punch. This is a pretty good punch. I wonder what else Davis has up his sleeve.

Right wing candidates never seem to think that their opponents will pull the skeletons out of their closets and use them against them. Opponents always do and they nearly always work.

Anyone who has been more than half way around the poltical block, knows that if you have such a thing in your closet you get it out early yourself. It is nearly always possible to turn your liabiltiy into an asset.

Most likely Simon never told his political consultant about this skeleton. People too stupid to tell the pros what they have in their closet always get beat. Believe me the Constultants ask all candidates the questions. Stupid candidates "FORGET to tell the consultant."

Had I been Simon's consultant I would have run a heavy 2 day saturation on radio. The TV newscasts would have picked it up and may even have given Simom positive coverage for his "GASP" honesty. Instead Simon will get negative coverage everywhere as the boob who cost the taxpayers millions. Here is the pre-emtive radio ad Simon should have run weeks ago.


    Hi my name is Bill Simon. I am a candidate for Governor.
    One of the hardest lessons I have learned in my life  
    is when to say no. Years ago a I owned a Savings and 
    Loan. I allowed loans to be made to people that should
    not have gotten loans. I wanted to see people make a 
    success in business. I followed my heart and not my 
    brain. What I did was not a help to the borrowers. 
    Some went broke. And it certainly was bad for our   
    depositors. It was a hard lesson, but I have learned it.
    
    One thing in life. We all make mistakes. The important
    thing to do is admit your mistakes for all to see, and 
    do your  best to never make that mistake again. 

    As your governor I will surely make mistakes. I can only
    assure you that I will freely admit my errors and do my 
    best to fix them as quickly as possible. 

    Have you ever heard Gray Davis admit his mistakes and 
    offer to correct them? Do you  think he ever will?

    I am Bill Simon. Candidate for Governor. I need your
    vote and support.

That is how you handle the mistakes in your background.

Simon is too much of an amatuer to play this game and win. Davis chose Simon to make his re-election as easy as shooting ducks in a barrel. It looks like that is what it is gonna be.

Right wing candidates never seem to think that their opponents will pull the skeletons out of their closets and use them against them.

Oh, gimme a break! That's the one thing they can count on, and almost all know it.

Go join the line of folks saying there's no way Simon can win. I prefer to actually see some proof of this before tossing the poll leader overboard. Sure, he's got his work cut out for him. But Davis' re-elect numbers stink to high Heaven. So we all know Grayout will be using his ton ' money to drive Simon's numbers down, because he has little hope of raising his own subterranean numbers.

First, you don't know about the S&L situation and you can't believe what Davis has said, it's a big lie. Simon responded when Riordan attacked him on it, and he has responded to Davis.

Second, it is a COMPLETE WASTE OF MONEY to be running ads now. NO ONE is focused on the election except us on FR, the media, and political pundits. If Simon spends a bunch of money now, it's throwing it down the drain -- literally. I'm glad Davis is wasting his money. It's not getting him anywhere, and it shows that he is REALLY WORRIED. NO ONE is so stupid to run ads FIVE MONTHS before an election unless they have major damage control.

Davis and Simon are neck and neck in the polls, and that will stay throughout the summer. Davis' negatives are huge -- over 50% of likely voters say they disapprove of his performance. 50% of ALL ADULTS in the Field Poll said they don't like him.

Davis has major problems. But Simon wouldn't be smart to spend a lot of money now when no one is paying attention.

Sorry, I don't mean to get all mad at you about this, but your post is reminescent of the posts in December and early January about Simon against Riordan, where EVERYONE was saying Simon needs to do this, do that, hit Riordan early and often. Fortunately, clearer heads prevailed and Simon took the election by nearly 19 points because the Simon Team was patient.

So, be patient. There is five months until the election.

Analysis of the ad.

Davis has major problems. But Simon wouldn't be smart to spend a lot of money now when no one is paying attention.

right!

Just like Clinton was stupid to run ads defining Bob Dole in 1996 when no one was paying attention. It drove Doles negatives up to the same point as Clinton's. Dole never recovered. Dole and Simon think alike. Start late.. finish last....

People vote on impressions. Simon and Davis are in a dead heat. Davis has had more negative publicity than anyone in California history. He will not go much lower. He can come up and Simon go down. Yet it is still a dead heat. Davis is just starting his attacks on Simon. Even someone as dumb as James Carville understands that starting fights over charges with Republicans in a Democrat state always benefits Democrats. It does not matter if the charges are true. Democrats just have to get the Republican to respond in kind. Winners turn liabilities into assets. Then and only then do left wing assults in a left wing state fail.

Simon is not nearly politically savey enough to do that. He will deny the charges. He will call Davis a liar. He will say the charges are false. He will present evidence that says the charges are false. That may all be the God's truth, but it will re-elect Davis. That is what you say is the strategy Simon used against Riorden's use of this issue. That was an entirely different election. What worked against Riorden is not worth a warm pitcher of spit against Davis. And you just told me you don't know that to be the case.

You tell me not to lose patience with Simon. Then you tell me Simon is doing exactly what Davis wants and hopes Simon will do. You think that will reassure me, because it reassures you. All you do is reafirm Simon is clueless about how to win elections in Democratic states.

Simon will counter with more charges and more proofs that he is not guilty. Simon will accuse Davis of playing dirty pool. And Davis will fire back saying Republicans made the same charges against Simon. Democratic voters always root for their guy in fight with a Republican. The Democrats don't like Davis, but he is their guy. When Davis attacks and Simon counter attacks, Democrats will support Davis. The more Davis attacks and Simon fights back, the better Davis will do. Democrat voters do not see attacks by a Democrats as attacks. They see counter attacks by Republican candidates as unfair attacks. Why do you think Davis does it?

ALL DAVIS NEEDS IS TO CREATE THE IMPRESSION THAT SIMON IS NEARLY AS BAD AS DAVIS. Responding to attacks with defenses and counterattcks will result in 4 percent of the Democrats that are now for Simon changing back to Davis. That will make a 2 percent Simon win into a 52.0/48.0 Davis win.

As Bill Clinton proved and Davis is too dumb to learn, it does no good to deny charges and counter attack. You have two techniques that work. They are the charges don't matter and the charge is really an asset in disquise. Right wing candidates in leftist states must turn their perceived liablitiies into assets not grounds for conflict. Repubicans can attack and counter attack in a primary and win. But in a Democrat state where Democrats votes are needed to win, a Repubican has to make a Democrat look like a mean bully for attacking him. Republicans can not win conflicts in Democratic states. That is why Democrats always try to start conflicts in Democratic states.

People stopped focusing on elections in 1976. Baring a huge last minute event, impressions created over time decide elections. To be a success impressions must be created starting the day the decision to run is made. Stop making impressions the day after the candidate dies.

I know this goes over both your's and Simon's heads. You should have James Carville explain it to you.

I know this goes over both your's and Simon's heads.

I guess we'll see about that won't we? Based on your take, it's all over. Davis is shrewd and ruthless, Simon is confused and naive. There's nothing left to do.

So here's my suggestion. You go ahead and log off FR and give up. gophack and I and the other optimistic lovers of liberty will get out there and campaign like crazy until November. When Simon wins, you can turn your computer back on and tell him how to start governing, ok?

Excellent response. Thanks from a veteran WINNING campaigner.

When Simon wins, you can turn your computer back on and tell him how to start governing, ok

I did not mention giving up. As usual with the right wing guys, when you tell them things they don't want to hear, they tell you to go away. There reaction to losing an argument is go away... Then they never figure out that is the only advice voters ever take from them... the voters go away ... away over to the other side.

The question in this race is how will Simon get Democrats to vote for a man tagged as a right wing Republican?

For Davis the question is how to get people to vote their ideology and not Davis's record?

In a state that is 60/40 Democrats, Simon only needs to get 84 percent of his base to come home. Simon must get 100 percent of his base and 17 percent of the Demcrats to vote for him.

What will Simon say to 17 percent of the Democrats to get them to vote for a him?

Do you really think what Simon is doing will get 17 percent of the Democrats to vote for him? It couldn't get Democrats to vote for a Democrat that took Simons positions.

If Democrats voted for the Republican message they would be Republicans.

The only issue Simon has that resonates in California is "I ain't Davis". Davis will spend the next 5 months proving to those wavering 17 percent of Democrats that Simon is indeed Davis exept he is a right "gasp" wing Davis. Simon will end up the campaign trying to prove that he is not a Davis.

Davis only needs to convince 4 percent of the Democrats leaning to Simon that Simon no better a person than Davis. In fact to Democrats Simon's policies are so unpopular, Davis only needs to convince them that Simon is kinda as bad as Davis. A right wing Simon will make up for a lot of Davis bad.

By this fall the entire campaign of both candidates will be about the short commings of Simon. Simon is not in control of the agenda. All the recent stories prove that. To win Simon must control the agenda and that agenda must appeal to 17 percent of the Democrats.