Simon Leads Davis by 8 in Labor Poll

San Fran. Chronicle - Matier & Ross Column (near the bottom) ^ | June 12, 2002 | Phillip Matier, Andrew Ross

[ElkGroveDan]

FIRST STRIKE: After five days of "positive" ads, Gov. Gray Davis unleashed the first in what will likely be a series of attack ads on Republican opponent Bill Simon -- and with good reason.

There's a new poll floating around Sacramento that shows the embattled Davis trailing Simon by a whopping eight points.

[Mr. Jeeves]

The Democrats are trying to get all the bad news out early - that's why we are seeing the scandal-a-day stories in the media. By September, they will be making Davis look like a saint, and calling Simon's criticisms "old news".

We've seen this act before.

[CubicleGuy]

Didn't Deukmejian run on the RINO (Republican In Name Only) ticket? ;-)

There are no other kinds of Republicans. They're all RINOs.

Even Ron Paul. He's a Republican in name only, while actually being a libertarian. The rest of them are Democrats pretending to be Republicans.

[madison46]

It's always hard for me to judge because I'm biased ... I really, really, really dislike Gray Davis. But I thought his ad sucked, too. I thought that he looked sterile and unbelieveable, almost like a robot. He wasn't friendly.

Me too. Worked for campaign firm in the past so I'm biased with all ads, but I do think I can make a generalization...I just looked to my wife to gauge the 'non-informed' voter initial reaction. Both of us didn't think it was very good.

Good thing for us is Davis is spending money...and not very well. His negative ad, which I haven't seen, may need some 'answering' from Simon before it becomes truth. Think you can pass that along to ElkGoveDan?

[dpwiener]

This is very interesting: Green Party candidate Peter Camejo came in with 5 percent.
Maybe a few $'s sent to Camejo's election chest might be a great investment.

This is one of those relatively rare elections in which the "lesser of two evils" argument won't wash for a lot of liberals. Davis has been so horrible and so corrupt that quite a few voters will be unable to "hold their noses" and vote for him no matter what. They won't vote for Simon, but they may vote for a third-party candidate, or skip the top of the ticket, or stay home altogether. Camejo could pick up a sizable anti-Davis protest vote.

To a lesser extent, Libertarian candidate Gary Copeland may also grab some anti-Davis voters. Copeland has not been shy about publicizing his Druid religion, and focussing on issues (such as the Drug War) that will likely resonate more with liberals than conservatives. Copeland and Camejo have been jointly participating in a series of debates around the state to drum up publicity, and the increased visibility for both of them could cost Davis several critical percentage points in the November balloting.

[Coop]

If Davis really is at 34 percent with likely voters,

We can argue the numbers all day - all polls contain a margin of error for a reason. But I've seen six polls now (both registered and likely voters) - Davis' total vote percentage in order from oldest to most recent poll was 42%, 41%, 37%, 38% and 43% - then this 34% came out after the slew of "bad news for Davis" stories over the past month.

Like I said earlier, his numbers make Rod Grams' numbers look strong. Of all the incumbents in the country running for re-election, I think Grayout is the last one I'd wanna be. And that includes Bob Smith-NH and Tim Johnson-SD.

[Toidylop]

...With his huge war chest of funds, he may be able to do enough attack ads to smear Simon significantly, but he runs the risk of honking off the people who already don't like him even more so he can't win them back...

He already did. He charged that Simon should NOT be trusted with managing the money!!! SIGH.

I thought I've heard a political satire :)

[going hot]

FWIW:

I spoke to two clients yesterday, both work for the state, dyed in the wool democrats, who NEVER have anything nice to say about republicans, and they are spitting mad at grayout davis, seems he has dissed them one too many times. probably will not be able to bring themselves around to vote repub (one can hope) but they more than likely will sit this one out. :-)

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

Let's save the big story for the weekend before the election.

The one about Davis and Condit in S&M orgies...........no wait....California..........nope.....better keep that quiet........could help Davis....... :>)

[janetgreen]

We have a freeper running for Lt. Governor, Paul Hannosh.

[Gophack]

Goodnight, Gray!

[Gophack]

Good thing for us is Davis is spending money...and not very well. His negative ad, which I haven't seen, may need some 'answering' from Simon before it becomes truth. Think you can pass that along to ElkGoveDan?

Simon has answered the ad in the press, and the Sacramento Bee did a write-up and all but called Davis a liar. AdWatch

Simon would be wise to watch his numbers and Davis' numbers. If there is any rise in Simon's negatives, they should rethink about starting the campaign early; otherwise, let Davis spend one-third of his warchest on ineffective, too early, poorly done ads and we'll clobber him in September.

[Gophack]

but they more than likely will sit this one out. :-)

I've been hearing a lot of that from State Employees. I think they'll be on Davis' bandwagon in November; however, will they be willing to give up every weekend in October to help walk precincts, energize voters, engage in rallies? That might be too much for them when they don't even like the guy.

We need the energy and the excitement and we will win.

Go Simon!

[staytrue]

In 2000, most polls had bush comfortably ahead with nader pulling about 3 percent. Right at the end, the nader vote went to gore resulting in a very close election with nader pulling only about 1 percent.

[My2Cents]

WHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...........

[Gophack]

You're right, which is why we have to be vigilant until the end. No slacking off.

Go Simon!

[Grampa Dave]

In some states it did, due to pleas from the Rats to vote for Goron. In some areas the vote hurt Goron. Davis doesn't have a great enviral stand when it is looked at. He goes for whom ever pays him to do what they want. If a wedge between him and a percentage of enviral voters can be driven, each vote for the Green is a vote away from Davis.

[NormsRevenge]

MEGA-WHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...........

[Grampa Dave]

You might want to go to the sec. state site for Kali and the presidental election to see how many votes Nader got by each county, before you discount my strategy in Kali. (Link to how Nader did per county in 2000)

[reaganite]

My non-conservative sister still lives in CA and she despises Davis. She said that she doesn't care who runs against him, she won't vote for him. She even says the President is doing a good job. I had to pick my lower lip up off the floor!

[nimc]

"This is very interesting: Green Party candidate Peter Camejo came in with 5 percent.
"We could have DUMP DAVIS and ELECT CAMEJO stickers on our suv's and garbage toters."

Great idea...I've been promoting this for a while now. A typically casual democrat that would never vote Republican could sure be lead into voting Green.