Simon Leads Davis by 8 in Labor Poll

San Fran. Chronicle - Matier & Ross Column (near the bottom) ^ | June 12, 2002 | Phillip Matier, Andrew Ross

[ElkGroveDan]

FIRST STRIKE: After five days of "positive" ads, Gov. Gray Davis unleashed the first in what will likely be a series of attack ads on Republican opponent Bill Simon -- and with good reason.

There's a new poll floating around Sacramento that shows the embattled Davis trailing Simon by a whopping eight points.

[PJ-Comix]

Green Party candidate Peter Camejo came in with 5 percent.

Hee! Hee!

[crystalk]

Ronald Reagan was elected in 1966 and 1970, wasn't he?

[Fidgit]

Thanks Dan. keep it coming.

[Coop]

most polls had bush comfortably ahead

What's your definition of comfortable? I recall 4-5 point leads in national polls (within margin of error), with dead heats in several swing states (MI, PA, FL).

[Gophack]

Ronald Reagan was elected in 1966 and 1970, wasn't he?

Yes.

[Gophack]

I LOVE LOVE LOVE your sticker!

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Now that just might work. Especially in the Bay area. I could be persuaded to go undercover with that bumper sticker.

[tortoise]

Actually every vote for Nader in 2000 on the left coast was a take away vote from Goron!

Not true. The Greens attract a lot of people who generally dislike both the GOP and the Dems. I remember driving by a Nader rally in Santa Cruz, CA during the last big election. There was two large groups of protestors outside. One group was holding up signs that said "A vote for Nader is a vote for Bush", and the other group were holding up signs that said "A vote for Nader is a vote for Gore". Clearly the Greens don't help either party too much.

[boop]

Sorry to pee on the parade, but Davis hasn't unleashed the all-out pro-abortion ads yet. These will run 24/7 and will catch the repubs flat-footed. Instead of confronting the issue, and making Davis DEFEND things like PBA, if Simon runs and hides from the issue, he is toast. Suburban voters can be easily manipulated by these demo scare tactics, so they must be answered early and often!

[Gophack]

Nader got 3.9% in California. That's pretty good for a communist Greenie. That means that Simon needs 48% to win. Maybe even a little less, considering all the other 3rd party candidates can take 1-2% of the vote.

Davis' negatives are skyhigh, and I don't see him doing anything to fix it. I don't know if he could. He'll lie (like he is already doing), cheat and try and steal the election.

We can't let him.

Dump Davis!

[Coop]

Sorry to pee on the parade, but Davis hasn't unleashed the all-out pro-abortion ads yet. These will run 24/7 and will catch the repubs flat-footed.

Really? So you're able to figure out this campaign strategy while at your keyboard, but the folks Simon is paying for advice will be unable to deduce said strategy? Fascinating.

[Vets_Husband_and_Wife]

Saw the adds last night by Davis. Boy, I sure hope Simon can win over this idiot. But I have to tell you.. even as I sat there and heard the adds say how Simon made his money off his Dad..and how Simon and ruined a company, and how it had failed miserably.. I thought, no matter what.. I still would never be able to vote for someone as incompetent as Davis.

Personally I think the wrong person got the Rep. Nomination. The best person, the one who was best qualified to handle this mess was Jones!!

In fact, I was thinking how cool it would be to have the first Governor voted in by write in ballot, from right here in California. VOTE JONES.. it is the only thing that makes sense!!!

Remember.. the only reason Jones didn't get the Republican nod..is because he backed McCain.

Here was the most qualified, the best choice, the most appealing, and because he backed McCain we don't back him.

Simon is going to have a hard time once the Davis spin machine gets going, because there are a TON of issues he has to explain. Like why he has never voted in a Republican Primary!! Like the failed business adventures he has. Just a lot of things.

So, If there was ever a BIG well advertised and well done bid for a "write in campaign for Jones"..I would back it!!

Otherwise, I'll vote for the lesser of two evils. Simon!

[Gophack]

I don't disagree with you, but Davis is also damaging himself when he talks about abortion. There are just as many pro-lifers and pro-aborts who vote single issue.

I will never vote for a pro-abort. I am confident that Simon is truly pro-life. But this election is not going to be won or lost on abortion. It's sad, but most people just don't care. (I, personally, don't understand how anyone can just not care about the bloody and inhumane slaughter of over four million unborn babies every year in America).

This election is going to be won or lost on leadership. Is Gray Davis a failure on energy, the economy, education? Do people see that (with 50-64% negatives, I think they see that). Can Simon capitalize on that and convince people that he is a viable alternative because he has sane and common sense solutions to these problems? That's the million dollar question. I think he's smart and has many good ideas. I think Davis is corrupt. I hope the voters of California realize that as well.

Go Simon!

[Gophack]

I don't quite understand your reasoning. Jones is a nice guy but he couldn't win, and it wasn't because of Simon. Jones can't raise money, never has been able to. Jones is 100% behind Simon, and has done several events with him.

Don't believe everything you read. Some of the hits on Simon are valid, others are outright lies (such as Davis' hit ad). Simon is a bright guy with good ideas who is from outside politics (THANK GOD!). I, for one, am tired of career politicians who think they know what's good for everyone, and we'd better just sit back and take it.

Go Simon!

[Dems_R_Losers]

If Davis can't get his re-elect numbers up over 45 percent by Labor Day, he is toast. It is really, really hard to do that just by going negative on your opponent. Davis is at only 34% BEFORE any negative GOP ads.

BTW, Newsweak is reporting this week that this is an upset in the making, and a visit by Laura Bush to California has already been scheduled - to be followed by the Pres if Simon's numbers hold up.

As a one-time Californian (worked for Pete Wilson in 1990), I can't wait for the final demise of Gray Davis. He is one of my least favorite politicians in years.

[goldstategop]

And this friends is a poll taken by a Rat friendly LIBERAL union! So Gray Davis and the liberal media can't spin this as a self-serving poll from Bill Simon's campaign. The real numbers aren't that Simon's leading, its that two thirds of Californians disapprove of the job Davis is doing as Governor. With numbers like that, no incumbent stands a chance of being reelected. Its big news since this is LIBERAL CALIFORNIA, a Rat fiefdom in which the conventional wisdom is a conservative GOP candidate has no chance whatsoever to beat a Rat. Yet not only does Davis have high negative ratings, at the beginning of summer, he finds himself having to get his base motivated. You shouldn't have to do that here. The kicker to this all is the only way Davis can possibly beat Simon is by going all out negative which will only serve to drive Davis' already high negative ratings even higher. Some people were wringing their hands wondering if Simon even had a chance. And then there's this poll of likely voters from a source that can hardly be described as a Simon boosterer that's confirmed for the most part he's doing everything else right. Right now bottom line, the only way Davis can hope to win in November is to make Simon look worse than Davis looks and I don't really see that taking off because Simon doesn't look like he scares any one and even the most liberal Rats who can't cotton to his politics can't bring themselves to dislike him as a person. Davis has one tall order of a job between here and November and the fun's only begun!

GO SIMON!!!

[Coop]

BTW, Newsweak is reporting this week that this is an upset in the making, and a visit by Laura Bush to California has already been scheduled - to be followed by the Pres if Simon's numbers hold up.

Thanks. That's the first I'd heard of Newsweak mentioning how vulnerable Grayout is. Folks are slowly starting to believe this can be done.

I'm not in any way saying Simon will win. He's got his work cut out for him. But he darned sure CAN win!

[Coop]

And then there's this poll of likely voters from a source that can hardly be described as a Simon boosterer that's confirmed for the most part he's doing everything else right.

Well, actually, I'd have to say that Davis is doing everything wrong. Simon has been laying kinda low (furiously raising money, I presume) since President Bush was out there for fundraising.

[mconder]

California's finally wising up.