| Posted on Mon, May. 06, 2002 |   |
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Unpopular governor leads race, poll shows
Mercury News Ever since the lights went out last spring, Gray Davis has been the governor Californians love to hate. A Field Poll released today found that 49 percent of Californians disapprove of the job he is doing, while 42 percent approve -- a rating that has not improved for nearly a year and puts him squarely among the state's least popular governors in recent memory. Yet those numbers do not seem to be hurting Davis' chances for re-election -- at least not yet. The same poll found the governor is leading his Republican opponent, Bill Simon, by a comfortable 14 points. This seeming contradiction says much about the attitudes Californians have toward their leaders and much about the rare political creature that is Gray Davis. It also helps explain why some analysts believe Davis remains vulnerable in his re-election bid, despite Simon's lackluster showing so far and his position to the right of most California voters on the political spectrum. ``The basic story is that voters pick the best of the worst,'' said Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California-Berkeley. ``We've been doing it for 20 years.'' The poll was taken before revelations that the state had signed a multimillion-dollar, no-bid contract with Redwood Shores firm Oracle to provide state agencies with database software. A Mercury News investigation of the contract led to a state audit, which found the state could be stuck with unneeded software costing millions of dollars. Analysts say the scandal, if it continues, has the potential to threaten the governor's re-election. ``This could be a godsend for Simon, but we'll see,'' said Cain. Depends on record Some say Davis faces a unique obstacle in his bid to be seen as the best candidate. As a politician who readily acknowledges his blandness and even jokes about it, he has never relied on his personal appeal to win over voters. Instead, he has made his case entirely on his record. So when things go wrong, Davis has nothing to fall back on. ``Personality has no impact on people's attitude toward the governor,'' said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. He said his approval ratings merely reflect how well the voters think the state is doing. ``It's all tied to his performance.'' Consider the assessment of Dan Griffing, a 51-year-old software engineer from Sunnyvale. ``I think he's kind of boring,'' Griffing said. He called the governor ``a bean counter, an accountant, not someone that's really a leader.'' Asked about the governor's job performance, Griffing replied, ``Can you say rolling blackouts?'' Davis campaign advisers say they are not worried about the governor's unpopularity, which grew worse when California's energy crisis hit. And there is a precedent for an unpopular governor being re-elected. Pete Wilson, who weathered California's last recession-induced budget crisis, was viewed more negatively than positively by voters yet went on to crush his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Brown. But the three previous incumbents -- George Deukmejian, Jerry Brown and Ronald Reagan -- were all in favor with voters when they won re-election. No incumbent governor has lost an election in California in 36 years. Davis, while once again the front-runner, will still have to wage a vigorous campaign in the fall. The Field Poll, taken between April 19 and 25, found that among registered voters, he fares even worse than he does among all Californians: 55 percent disapprove of his performance, while 39 percent approve. Yet voters have not embraced his GOP opponent. The Field Poll found that just 29 percent support Simon, compared with 43 percent for Davis. The 28 percent of voters who are undecided will determine the election. Simon, a wealthy businessman from Los Angeles, was a political unknown before his upset victory over Richard Riordan in the GOP primary in March. He won, in part, by wooing the conservatives who decide the party's primary but play a lesser role in the general election. Simon dipping Since then, voters appear to be souring on Simon. The April Field Poll found that more people viewed him negatively than positively, although 39 percent still said they had no opinion. The Simon campaign, which maintains that the race is much tighter than the Field Poll found, takes heart in the high percentage of voters who have yet to make up their minds, as well as the governor's low approval rating. ``He's running out of time to convince voters that he should be re-elected,'' said Simon spokesman Jamie Fisfis. But short of a scandal, one analyst says, Davis may not have much to worry about. ``We don't need a guy we can treat like a teddy bear,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior political scholar at the University of Southern California, summing up how she believes voters will approach this election. ``We need a governor who will do as little as possible to make our lives uncomfortable.'' Contact Laura Kurtzman at lkurtzman@sjmercury.com or (408) 920-5608. |
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