Posted on 06/24/2002 7:58:31 AM PDT by Coop
When Gov. Gray Davis launched a slew of attack ads last winter against former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, the political punditry proclaimed him a genius. By knocking the liberal Republican out of the party's gubernatorial race, Davis was handpicking Bill Simon as his opponent, a conservative "extremist" who would quickly fold in a brass-knuckles general campaign.
So far, though, the Republican challenger remains strong, as evidenced by Davis' anti-Simon TV spots. The First Commandment of political campaigning is: Never go on the offensive against a hapless opponent -- it gives him undue publicity as well as the sympathy vote. That Davis feels the need to target Simon so soon suggests that Simon isn't so hapless after all, a fact confirmed by both campaigns' internal polls, which show Davis' 14-point lead of only a month ago rapidly slipping away.
That's because in the early rounds of the brass-knuckles campaign, the only blows the genius has landed have been on himself. Every day, Davis looks more like the Mike Tyson of politics -- invincible in his prime, but a doddering has-been shortly thereafter, done in by the glaring defects of his own character.
It's hardly the political acumen of Simon, who only started airing his TV commercials last week, that accounts for Davis' nascent meltdown. For his part, Simon has kept a surprisingly low profile in the campaign, taking a restrained approach in his public comments on Davis, although his first negative ads will appear later this week.
That risks breaking the Second Commandment of political campaigning: Don't beat up on your opponent if he's willing to do the job for you. So far, Simon hasn't needed so much as to lift a finger, because Iron Gray has been busily pummeling himself into oblivion ever since the primary.
The first mortal wound came from the $23.6 billion hole Davis managed to punch in the state budget. In light of Sacramento Democrats' aversion to shrinking government, Davis has been left with little choice but to push for tax increases on smokers and car owners. Most Sacramento-watchers agree that between now and November, that list of tax-hike victims will only expand.
That's an obvious violation of the Third Commandment of political campaigning: Don't raise taxes during an election year. Liberal though Californians are, even voters in Santa Monica don't like turning over a higher portion of their earnings to Sacramento. As taxes go up, Davis' approval ratings go down.
Davis' biggest problem is that Californians simply don't like the job he's done as governor, nor do they much like him personally. They think he's incompetent for his bungling of the energy crisis and the budget, and sleazy in the way he unabashedly doles out political favors for campaign funds.
The governor's decision to focus his new ad campaign on Simon's role in a failed family S&L is an attempt to deflect questions about his own performance over the past four years. But the ad's tagline -- "Bill Simon: If he can't run an S&L, how can he run California?" -- only stands to hurt Davis by virtue of the inevitable question it raises: If Davis can't run California, how can he run California?
Then there's the sleaze factor, most clearly brought to light through the Oracle debacle, in which the blatant attempt of Davis aides to steer a lucrative state contract to an undeserving campaign contributor only confirmed the widespread opinion that there's nothing their boss won't do for a buck. The scandal even led one of Davis' Democratic partisans, state Assemblyman Dean Florez of Bakersfield, to declare last week that Davis administration officials "abdicated their duties, to the detriment of taxpayers and to the benefit of the corporate interests."
That's one of Davis' friends speaking.
The combination of incompetence and sleaze makes Davis something of a unique specimen for someone at his level in politics, which usually requires some degree of skill, likability or both. Some leaders are talented but unscrupulous (Bill Clinton) or honest but inept (Jimmy Carter), but to be neither able nor trustworthy puts Davis among a rather select (Richard Nixon) crowd.
Yet in Davis' case, sleaze and ineptitude are two sides of the same coin. Both are the product of a lack of principles on which to govern. Davis is motivated by the singular pursuit of power, marked by a callous indifference to how that power is obtained, whether it's through shady fund-raising or shortsighted, politically motivated policy.
The end result is that as doggedly as Davis worked to help Simon win the primary, he now unwittingly contributes as much to the possibility of a Simon upset in November.
Still, it's too early to make any predictions. The Tenth Commandment of political campaigning: It ain't over till it's over.
That would be TOO funny. But remember, Davis will keep the power on at all COST ... literally. Why do you think our children will be paying for the lights we use today?
Shoot, at this point, I'd consider Davis winning to be an upset.
BUMP!
I heard an interview with Simon over the weekend. He says their internal polling still shows him with a lead. Which is completely believable to me.
The political pundits do not want to admit that the California electorate is not the liberal wack job the rest of the country thinks we are. Yes, California tends to be liberal, but there are definite conservative streaks that political power brokers on the left tend to ignore ... like Prop. 13; the fact that we fight taxes; the overwhelming passage of Prop. 22 (no gay marriage); etc., etc.
Yes, California is weird. Jekell and Hyde. We are wacky, but it all sort of makes sense when you live here and deal with these people on a regular basis.
Until the split personality drives you from the state ... !
I think this says it all. This will be the message of this campaign. More importantly, these are impressions that he cannot change no matter how many ads he runs.
I thought the same thing when I first saw the Davis ad … the Davis camp are fools to these type attack ads
Boy your right it could become a political classic
Bump!
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