California ISO Issues Stage One Power Alert!

Cal ISO ^ | 07/09/02 | Cal ISO

[Poohbah]

Peak demand at 99+% of peak capacity.

That's close.

OK, crank the fridge and freezer to max chill, turn on the electric range, max power on the air conditioner, all TVs and radios ON, flip on all the lights... :o)

[Dog Gone]

Get used to this, is my advice. With Gray trying to get out of every contract he signed (and based on which power companies were willing to build new plants), California isn't building enough new plants to keep up with population increases.

It's funny how actions have consequences.

[Carry_Okie]

By conserving we are helping the governor. Correct.

By conserving we are also helping industry that keeps us in work and pays taxes. Long term we might be helping them, but only if they stay. They might not with too many blackouts.

Tough choice, but it would be one hell of a FReep.

[Carry_Okie]

It's funny how actions have consequences.

So do inactions.

[socal_parrot]

I thought there was usually a spike around 5 from folks getting home and firing up the AC.

[Angelique]

Obviously Gray doesn't know this, and throughout this mess, I have never heard of a projected plan. He tries to put a band-aid on everything or lie through his teeth.

[eureka!]

The good news in this is that this is "news". This will be a story in tomorrow's fishwraps with a reminder of the rolling blackouts. Grayout will not like tomorrow's papers...

[Carry_Okie]

Cooking and heating water are a bigger deal than home AC. Industrial usage starts falling off at 3:30. Think of all the welding and heating processes for example.

[Benrand]

Well, they can't blame it on greedy Enron anymore.

I gave Enron the benefit of the doubt last year, in retrospect, Enron could have been gouging at a certain point, but it's unclear they were continually holding back supply.

Gray is going to get hosed...

[socal_parrot]

When the demand was withing 1% of supply, I wonder why Cal ISO didn't go to Stage 2 or even 3? Stage 2 is withing 5% and Stage 3 is within 1.5%. Do you think the Governor's office was on the phone quashing it?

[ElkGroveDan]

Well it looks like Grayout is out of the woods today. It appears they kicked off some interruptable equipment at 3:30. However...........

The forecasted demand for tomorrow is for 42,500 megawatts. Based upon TODAY's supply that would put us in a Stage III. My guess is that they'll be buying up some pricey megawatts while we are all still in our pajamas tonight and tomorrow morning.

We have at least two more days of this up north here and I see that down in the Inland Empire it's no better. If we have any major generators go down later in the week we could be looking at some nail biter afternoons for Governor Dufus. They better take away all the breakables within reach of Mr. Nutcase.

[NorseWood]

At 4:00 it is 108 degrees in Palm Springs and still rising. Palmdale is 106 and Lancaster is 112.

[ElkGroveDan]

ISO Weather Forecasts

Light yellow highlighting indicates the current date. City names highlighted in RED indicate possible data problems.

Forecast Processed:
PG&E	Wed 07/10			Thu 07/11			Date
City	Max	Min	Sky	Max	Min	Sky
Arcata	66 [16]	52 [05]	Sunny	66 [15]	51 [04]	Partly Cloudy	2002/07/09 15:46
Redding	113 [17]	73 [06]	Sunny	112 [17]	74 [05]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Sacramento	106 [17]	65 [06]	Sunny	105 [17]	66 [05]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Stockton	106 [18]	66 [06]	Clear	106 [18]	66 [05]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Santa Rosa	101 [16]	55 [06]	Sunny	96 [16]	57 [04]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
San Francisco	81 [15]	56 [05]	Sunny	78 [15]	57 [04]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Concord	103 [16]	61 [06]	Sunny	99 [17]	63 [05]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
San Jose	100 [16]	60 [06]	Sunny	89 [16]	64 [04]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Fresno	110 [17]	74 [06]	Sunny	109 [17]	76 [05]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Bakersfield	110 [17]	75 [06]	Fair	109 [17]	77 [05]	Partly Cloudy	2002/07/09 15:46
SCE	Wed 07/10			Thu 07/11			Date
City	Max	Min	Sky	Max	Min	Sky
Los Angeles	85 [14]	64 [05]	Fair	85 [14]	64 [04]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Los Angeles Airport	75 [14]	64 [04]	Fair	78 [14]	64 [04]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Riverside	105 [16]	68 [06]	Fair	102 [16]	67 [05]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Long Beach	85 [16]	65 [04]	Fair	84 [16]	65 [23]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Ontario	100 [16]	67 [06]	Fair	98 [16]	66 [05]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Santa Ana	80 [14]	64 [03]	Fair	78 [15]	65 [04]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
SDG&E	Wed 07/10			Thu 07/11			Date
City	Max	Min	Sky	Max	Min	Sky
San Diego	75 [14]	63 [06]	Fair	77 [14]	66 [03]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
El Cajon	93 [14]	60 [06]	Fair	92 [14]	61 [04]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46
Santee	91 [14]	61 [06]	Fair	92 [14]	61 [04]	Fair	2002/07/09 15:46

 

Posted: 09-Jul-2002 16:06:01 [1.11]

[Carry_Okie]

Do you think the Governor's office was on the phone quashing it?

Very likely. You know what happens when we go over capacity without rolling blackouts? The damage would be enormous.

Somebody likely had to order that no action be taken. That is serious news. If Davis is taking those kinds of risks with this economy just to save his sorry behind, he should be be held accountable for it even if nothing happened. Tomorrow may be worse.

[Timesink]

Do you think the Governor's office was on the phone quashing it?

I'd certainly have no problem believing this. But it doesn't really matter whether the ISO "declares" it or not; if demand outstrips supply, the power companies will have to kick in the rolling blackouts or else risk having the entire power grid collapse. And I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest the public will notice that. Grayout Davis may be able to bend and break a lot of laws, but he's powerless against the laws of physics.

[Benrand]

Your metaphor is even closer to reality. I said last summer Davis was like Quint from Jaws, a madman...

And in the movie, Quint also pushed his boat past the breaking point.

This summer is going to be crazier than last.

[Timesink]

To find all articles tagged or indexed using Calpowercrisis, click below...

Hmmm. Seems like the new software doesn't offer ALL articles tagged, only the last 30-35 or so, with no way to go further back. Are my eyes missing an "archives" button or something?

[Robert357]

I guess the lines did get pretty close together after all!

Kind of interesting how fast they can call a Stage One power alert!

[Timesink]

Wow, 81 in SF tomorrow. Most San Franciscans are so used to being pampered by "perfect" weather that they'll freak out at 81 in a way the rest of the country wouldn't until it hit 105 or so. That should be amusing to watch. I still remember last year when the city practically declared a state of emergency because it hit 90.

[Timesink]

Somehow, the reality of how we are squeaking by without blackouts last year and this year need to be tied into the Davis Recession and slumping economy.

True, but don't forget to factor in that most Californians still believe the whole "power crisis" thing is a total scam created in order to jack up their power bills, which I believe are, or at least used to be, artifically low due to some wacko RAT law out there or something. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that.) So they utterly refuse to make the most minor concessions in order to save electricity when supply gets tight, because there "isn't really any such thing as a power alert" and they don't have to pay the true cost of their consumption anyway.

I mean, something's got to be accounting for the state hitting 99%+ of peak capacity, Davis Recession or not.