California ISO Issues Stage One Power Alert!

Cal ISO ^ | 07/09/02 | Cal ISO

[socal_parrot]

All notices should be confirmed with the appropriate operating personnel prior to taking any action.

Current Active Notice(s)

        STAGE 1 EMERGENCY NOTICE [200201305]

The California Independent System Operator is implementing Stage 1 of the Electrical Emergency Plan for the period 07/09/2002 14:40 through 07/09/2002 19:00.

The CAISO is continuing to request additional Supplemental Energy bids during this period. The Plan has been implemented for the following reason(s):

The California ISO has declared a Stage 1 Emergency. This is due to Extreme High Temperatures throughout the Region. Voluntary load curtailment is requested between 14:40 and 19:00 hours.

Participating Transmission Owners are to notify the Utility Distribution Companies within their operational areas.

Stage 1: Operating reserves are currently, or forecast to be, less than minimum. Advise the Utility Distribution Company of potential power shortages and request the UDC to advise end-use customers to reduce demand to minimum requirements without disruption of employment or curtailment of industrial production or commerce. Advise the UDC to prepare for possible implementation of interruptible load programs and/or electrical emergency plan.

This message is from Market Operations at the California ISO.

Notice issued at: 07/09/2002 14:34

---------------------------------- DISCLAIMER -------------------------------------- This CAISO notice is based on the current conditions of the transmission grid system. While this CAISO notice reflects the most current information available to the CAISO, because transmission grid system conditions are subject to sudden and rapid change without warning, the accuracy of this notice cannot be assured. This CAISO notice is provided solely for informational purposes. Reliance by any party on the contents of this CAISO notice, regardless of any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, and/or subsequent changed conditions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action against the CAISO. Any recipient's decisions or actions that may be based in any way whatsoever on the contents of this CAISO notice shall be the sole responsibility of the recipient. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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SYSTEM WARNING NOTIFICATION [200201304]

For the period 07/09/2002 14:20 through 07/09/2002 19:00 the ISO is predicting deficiencies in Operating Reserve.

Due to high than expected loads and temperatures across the ISO Control Area today.

The ISO is issuing a "Warning" notice and is requesting additional Supplemental Energy bids during this period.

This message is from Market Operations at the California ISO.

Notice issued at: 07/09/2002 14:20

---------------------------------- DISCLAIMER -------------------------------------- This CAISO notice is based on the current conditions of the transmission grid system. While this CAISO notice reflects the most current information available to the CAISO, because transmission grid system conditions are subject to sudden and rapid change without warning, the accuracy of this notice cannot be assured. This CAISO notice is provided solely for informational purposes. Reliance by any party on the contents of this CAISO notice, regardless of any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, and/or subsequent changed conditions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action against the CAISO. Any recipient's decisions or actions that may be based in any way whatsoever on the contents of this CAISO notice shall be the sole responsibility of the recipient. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Restricted Maintenance Operations [200201303]

The ISO is anticipating high loads and temperatures across the ISO Control Area.

The California ISO is declaring Restricted Maintenance Operations for the period from 07/09/2002 06:00 through 07/09/2002 22:00.

Restricted maintenance operations, as detailed in ISO Operating Procedure E-509, will be in effect.

Market participants are cautioned to avoid actions, which may unnecessarily jeopardize generator availability.

This message is from Market Operations at the California ISO.

Notice issued at: 07/08/2002 16:40

---------------------------------- DISCLAIMER -------------------------------------- This CAISO notice is based on the current conditions of the transmission grid system. While this CAISO notice reflects the most current information available to the CAISO, because transmission grid system conditions are subject to sudden and rapid change without warning, the accuracy of this notice cannot be assured. This CAISO notice is provided solely for informational purposes. Reliance by any party on the contents of this CAISO notice, regardless of any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, and/or subsequent changed conditions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action against the CAISO. Any recipient's decisions or actions that may be based in any way whatsoever on the contents of this CAISO notice shall be the sole responsibility of the recipient. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Carry_Okie]

Actually, radiation from asphalt might be the cause of my readings. The sensor is in the shade. I might just build that white plywood box for a more accurate reading.

[Carry_Okie]

Arc welding.

[Liz]

One of the best kept secrets is how this recession in Kali has resulted in massive reductions in electrical useage by businesses that closed their doors or are operating less hours than in 2000.

On-target, gramps. Gotta get the word out. CBS-News (surprise) did a segment on this topic.

[NormsRevenge]

This summer is going to be crazier than last.

Yup... Look so far .. Ol' SweaTy Al GoRe is Back .. BiGGer and WeTTer then Ever .. ProoF That Global Smarming has reached a new low .. Rolling BlackOuts are Very Possible .. If GraY is Playing Fast and Loose ( and when doesn;t he?) He deserves a good butt kikkin in November. Hell. He deserves one either way.

[Henchster]

A sumbich is 95 degrees in the shade at 6:04pm in Woodland Hills.

And my airco is set to 70, and I have a bunch of servers running, plus the TV with the all star game, and the kegerator, and.....

Up your Dim-Bulb Davis!

[NormsRevenge]

I mean, something's got to be accounting for the state hitting 99%+ of peak capacity, Davis Recession or not.

InDoor Pot Farms ? ... Also, Agriculture is energy intensive

[Robert357]

First, Carry_Okie, you have a series of excellent observations and points. You may be right and I may have not understood what you were saying. Part of the problem is utility jargon.

I think (and I am speculating) that I understand what you are saying. I also think that maybe I can put a few things in perspective.

There is an article on what Alerts, Warnings and Emergencies mean. It can be found at the following locaction

Cal ISO White Paper PDF

From what I read and understand, the graphs that show the available generation from which you calculated "reserves" are not the "available generation" The graph of available generation from what I understand, has been "artificially reduced or lowered" by 3%. Actually the key definitions are as follows:

Available Resources*: The current forecast of generating and import energy resources available to serve the demand for energy within the California ISO service area. Total Resources is comprised of dependable generation less outages and unavailable OFs, plus the expected imported supply. Available resources is equal to Total Resources less a 3% reserve margin*. (Calculation is detailed below.)

A 3% reserve ensures the California ISO's ability to respond adequately to an unanticipated emergency. In order to protect the integrity of the Grid, the California ISO may declare a Stage Three Emergency when the system's Operating Reserver is forecast to be at or below 1.5% or less than the largest contingency within the service area (estimated to be 3%)..

So during the 3PM hour when the total generation (not discounted for reserves) exceeded load by only 694 MW or 1.6% of total generation, your question is why was only a Stage 1 Emergency declared?

I think we can both agree that probably they were on the ragged edge of a Stage 3 Emergency. The details also show that Total resources increased during the 4 PM hour. Things collapsed pretty quickly and it is clear that the ISO does not have a decent forecasting process.

According to the SOP's, should the ISO have declared Warnings the day before and Alerts the hour before? Yes! However, again, I don't think they have a good enough forecasting process to do that. Does this mean that the ISO shouldn't start a crash course in forecasting techniques. Nope, they should be able to do a lot better.

Could a single large machine fail and exceed 1% (435 MW) or 1.5% (652 MW) of the total generation which was 43504 MW? Yes, there are some large Nuc's that could have dropped that much load in a scram or turbine failure mode.

Does this mean that a Stage 2 or 3 Emergency should have really been called when a Stage 1 Emergency was called instead? That is an excellent question!

If that was your question instead of why wasn't a Stage 2 or 3 Alert called, I think you have a question that should be put to the Cal ISO. I would speculate that the answer they will give is that very early into the 3PM hour they placed an emergency order with the Bonneville Power Administration (or BC Hydro or other large power producer) to provide a significant enough increase in Total and available generation to know that they would not need to declare a Stage 3 Emergency during the 4 PM and later hours. None-the-less, I'll bet somebody was sweeting blood during the last half of the 3PM hour to make sure a power plant didn't go down somewhere in California.

Your point is very well taken, this probably was really on the ragged edge of a Stage 3 Emergency and you are right to raise the question of did somebody fudge the SOP's. I suspect that the answer is tied to the inacuracy of the ISO forecasts and that somebody form outside the region stepped in to help out, big time.

[Robert357]

Carry_Okie;
You caused me to send an email to the communications director of the ISO. I'll let you know what I find out.

smccorkle@caiso.com
Dear Ms. McCorkle;

I was hoping that you could help me understand what happened on the afternoon of July 9th.

Specifically, by my calculations from your Ca ISO website for the 3 PM hour had total generation exceeding load by only 694 MW or 1.6% of total generation.

Why was only a Stage 1 Emergency declared? Should not a Stage 2 or Stage 3 Emergency been declared under ISO SOP?s?

I thought that the ISO definition for a Stage 3 Emergency is the lower of 1.5% of generation or a single contingency which ever is less. During the 3PM hour, 1.5% was only 652 MW, which is less than a number of large nuclear plant could have lost in the event of a scram or turbine trip. At 1.6% of generation the ISO was on the ragged edge of Stage 3 if the largest single contingency is not considered.

Therefore, in your explanation of why wasn?t a Stage 3 emergency declared, could you tell me what was considered the Stage 3 criteria and why. Also could you explain why a Stage 2 Emergency was not declared. Finally, could you explain how the ISO went form a Maintenance Warning to and Emergency without any Alerts being issues.

As a concerned Power Industry professional engineer and former Power Manager, I would like to better understand the California ISO and how it operates.

Sincerely,

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I suspect that the answer is tied to the inacuracy of the ISO forecasts and that somebody form outside the region stepped in to help out, big time.

Any way to see that and who it is on the OASIS website?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Good request.

[Carry_Okie]

Thank you for the clarification. The answer regarding my understanding is that I didn't understand the distinction between an Emergency (internal operating procedures) and an Alert (a request for public action). Had I been clear about that difference my question would have been BOTH. There is no doubt in my mind that the State should have both asked for public cooperation and taken action to hold delivery within safe operating margins. Perhaps they did the latter, but there is no indication of that on this thread.

It is now clear to me that socal_parrot's excellent graph represents 100% of available Resources or 97% of Available Generation (what I thought was meant by "Resources," namely what we make plus what we buy). That is certainly not as close as it seemed, but is clearly not an adequate margin for "business as usual."

If the margin below Capacity was but 1.6%, I don't think it shows that on the graph because it would show that the Reserve limit had been exceeded. If that is the case, then the situation I errantly surmised had in fact occurred and the question I raised (and you clarified) indeed applies:

Why only a Stage 1 Emergency?
Why only a Stage 1 Alert?

Thank you for your thoughtful post. There is investigatin' too due.

[Carry_Okie]

I know of somebody (second hand) currently working (sorry) at Duke. He'll know what the scoop was.

[Carry_Okie]

As a concerned Power Industry professional engineer and former Power Manager, I would like to better understand the California ISO and how it operates.

LOL!

[Robert357]

I know of somebody (second hand) currently working (sorry) at Duke. He'll know what the scoop was.

I'll still bet it was Bonneville or one of the other large PNW utilities that bailed out Cal ISO by agreeing to sell a large block of power during the 4 PM hour.

I could also call some power dispatchers I know to find out, but am looking forward to hearing what you learn.

[Robert357]

As to what is on the Oasis website. Yes, but you have to be a registered user. Depending on the particular Oasis website, I am a registered user or I have business associates who are.

[dixiechick2000]

"I'll contact the Oregonian Freepers to turn down the temps on their freezers, fridges, turn all lights on and buy electric chain saws to thing out the woods/brush around their homes."

You got it, Gramps! It's hot here, too, so there's no problem turning down the air temp.
Since I want to do my part to get rid of Davis, I'll even turn on (and jump in) the swim-spa...
just don't make me heat it. ;o)

[Robert357]

Boy twice wrong in one day.

OK, thank you for the Cal Iso Oasis site, and it is not a pre registration-only site, so yes you can explore it. As to what happened between the 2 pm and 4 pm to save the ISO, it appears from my browsing that System Generation increased about 300 to 450 MW and that imports increase by a couple hundred MW. Combined this saved the system.

Also at the same time system exports increased a couple hundred MW's. (must have been those evil price gougers.) The two "15" paths seem to have been a big part of the equation for imports and the LC and PNW3 paths seemed to be part of the import solutions.

A quick glance appears to be that the ISO got by with little bits here and there. So I guess, it wasn't BPA riding in on a big white horse.

When I get a response from my request to the CA ISO communications director, I will post it on FreeRepublic and bump both of you.

I learned a few things today!

[Robert357]

LOL!

I wanted to communicate with the person who she would ask to answer my questions, first not to try to give me too much BS and secondly, how much rope did they want to hang themselves with.

Do you think I didn't sound sincerely? (grin?)

[Robert357]

The more, I think about this, the more I am becoming concerned. The posted article is entitled Stage 1 Alert. It was a Stage 1 Emergency. That is a big difference.

Something really doesn't smell quite right.

I hope that the morning papers have some good reporters who really probe what is going on. (yeah right!)