California: Simon cuts Davis' lead in half

Mercury News ^ | 7/11/02 | Laura Kurtzman

[NormsRevenge]

Republican Bill Simon has cut Democratic Gov. Gray Davis' lead in half -- to 7 percentage points -- but voters are becoming disenchanted with both candidates, according to a new Field Poll.

Half the electorate disapproves of Davis, and a growing number of voters views Simon in negative terms. Some are turning to third-party candidates, whose support has reached 9 percent, the highest level in 10 years.

[NormsRevenge]

The poll suggests that voter turnout may be low in November, which is generally good for Republican candidates because Republican voters are more likely to vote than Democrats.

Low Turn-Out = GraYouT ... I Like It!!!
DUMP DAVI$ & the Den of Socialists

GO SIMON

[Williams]

What happened to yesterday's article claiming a Simon lead?

[NormsRevenge]

July 8th Simon Maintains Big Poll Lead Over Davis

Here Ye Be! A Much More Reliable Poll So You Won't See This Publicized by the Media, Obviously.

[Free the USA]

fyi

[goldstategop]

The thing that leaps out from the biased Field Poll is that almost 10% of the electorate would vote for a third party. I think that would be the Greens. You basically have a growing pool of disaffected liberal Rats who would never vote for Bill Simon but who can't stomach GrayDown and who want to send a protest message. The good news is the more GrayDown caters to his party's Left, the more he leaves the center open to be won by Simon. My gut feeling at this point is the race is pretty much neck in neck and its basically Simon's to lose. Barring a dramatic reversal in GrayDown's negative ratings, I predict Simon will become California's next Governor.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for the ping!

I like this headline better than the article on the Field poll from the San Francisco Chronicle

Davis ekes out 7-point lead over Simon-Poll shows voters against hopeful rather than for governor

calgov2002:

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[Carry_Okie]

Simon had better start selling a positive image or his opposition will solidify.

[NormsRevenge]

I hear ya. He does need to Kiss more babies or something. :-) Or is that a violation of the new CFR?

I have a hope that this Budget Stalemate will allow SiMon to participate from the sidelines and really rile the hornet's nest. This Guv&socialist govt needs a good enema.

Davi$ IS destroying this state from the inside out.

[Liz]

I like this headline better than the article on the Field poll.........

Does have a nice ring to it, doesn't it?

[ElkGroveDan]

This is the Field poll.

While political pollsters call from lists of actual voters and determine voting likelihood from past voter history..The Field poll call everyone who picks up the phone and asks them if they are registered to vote and if they voted in the last election. One study shows that almost 20% lie in the affirmative on both counts. Field also oversamples the San Francisco Bay area. That is why Field has predicted Governor Bradley twice, Governor Feinstein, Governor Kathleen Brown and the defeat of Proposition 13 to name a few.

The fact is that according to the serious poll done by Public Opinion Surveys, Bill Simon is ahead by 8 points. This is confirmed by several legislative Democrat polls that have leaked out of the Capitol.

Don't ever believe what you read in the Field poll.

[Saundra Duffy]

Simon HAS to win!! For victory & freedom!!!

[ElkGroveDan]

Here is a historical example of just how bad the Field poll is. According to this story all of the private polls showed Wilson leading Kathleen Brown by as much as 9 points, but good old Mervin Field had Jerry Brown's little sister up by 5. As we all know Wilson thumped her that November 51%-44%

This poll is nearly identical to they way things are now. All the private polls have Simon a head of Davis by 4-9 points, but Field is coming in with Davis ahead by 7. Note the date too. This Field Poll was also taken in July.

 

The San Francisco Examiner

July 20, 1994, Wednesday; Fourth Edition

SECTION: NEWS; Pg. A-6

LENGTH: 600 words

HEADLINE: Brown maintains lead over Wilson ;
But new poll shows support for Demo gubernatorial candidate has slipped to 44%

SOURCE: OF THE EXAMINER STAFF

BYLINE: TUPPER HULL

DATELINE: SACRAMENTO

BODY:
Although her lead over Gov. Wilson has slipped, Kathleen Brown and her campaign reacted happily to news she is leading the Republican incumbent by a 5-point margin in a new statewide poll.

"We're landing punches," said Brown, the Democratic Party's nominee for governor, as she completed a two-day bus tour of the Bay Area on Tuesday. Brown and her aides had expected the poll to show her trailing Wilson for the first time since she announced her candidacy last year. "I like it when I'm ahead," she told reporters.

The Field Poll, conducted last week, shows her with the support of 44 percent of a sampling of the state's electorate, compared with Wilson's 39 percent.

It was conducted while Brown was airing four separate television ads attacking Wilson's record.

Wilson spokesman Dan Schnur countered that the poll was good news for the governor. He noted that Field polls had found Brown ahead of Wilson by 8 percentage points just two months ago and Brown leading by 12 points in April.

"In the last two weeks, Kathleen Brown has thrown the political sink at us, and it's barely made a scratch," said Schnur.

"They went out and tried to buy themselves a poll, and they didn't even do that right," he said.

The latest Field survey also found a growing number of Californians unhappy with the job Wilson is doing as governor. Of the more than 600 people surveyed, 41 percent said they believed Wilson was doing a poor or very job, compared with 35 percent who gave him the same grade in May.

Another 32 percent said Wilson was doing a fair job (33 percent ranked his job performance as fair in May), and 25 percent said he was doing a good or excellent job (28 percent gave him a good or excellent rating in May).

Recent private polls, including polls conducted by Brown's own campaign, have found the first-term state treasurer trailing Wilson by up to 9 points. It was largely because of those polls that Brown's aides predicted the prestigious Field Poll also would show her behind.

But John Whitehurst, Brown's chief spokesman, said he believed Brown had moved ahead in the hard-fought race largely because of the negative television ads she was running throughout the state.

"It shows how weak he is," Whitehurst said. "One week of television ads, and his numbers collapsed."

Tuesday's poll followed by one day appearances by both gubernatorial candidates at the California Broadcasters' Association convention in Monterey, during which they exchanged strongly worded attacks.

The appearances, the first time the two candidates have appeared together since they won their parties' primary elections, set the tone for what many political observers believe will be a close and bitter race up to the Nov. 8 vote.

GRAPHIC: PHOTO (AP / RICH PEDRONCELLI)
Caption 1, Kathleen Brown admires Veronica Garcia's finger painting at George Moscone elementary in The City on Tuesday.

LOAD-DATE: July 22, 1994

[Free the USA]

bttt

[Liz]

Here is a historical example of just how bad the Field poll is. According to this story all of the private polls showed Wilson leading Kathleen Brown by as much as 9 points, but good old Mervin Field had Jerry Brown's little sister up by 5. As we all know Wilson thumped her that November 51%-44% This poll is nearly identical to they way things are now. All the private polls have Simon ahead of Davis by 4-9 points, but Field is coming in with Davis ahead by 7.

"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana

[eureka!]

I too like the headline and nice job on outing the Fraud, er, Field Poll. As I noted elsewhere, this is purely for the presstitutes to play with as they try to save Grayout....

[Gophack]

The poll showing Simon leading by 8 points (39 to 31) was done using likely voters and vote propensity. The sample was taken geographically based on voter propensity rather than population. The Field Poll is sampled on population. We know that San Francisco votes at a lower propensity than Placer County, for example, but in the Field Poll, San Francisco has more weight than Placer County because it has a larger population.

Also, the Field Poll only includes people who are SELF-IDENTIFIED likely voters, not actual likely voters based on past election information.

Considering that the Field Poll over-samples Los Angeles and San Francisco, I think that the earlier released poll (which, actually, was done at the same time as the Field Poll) is more accurate and that Simon is, in fact, leading.

I know this sounds confusing, but the Field Poll is notoriously wrong. Unfortunately, people know the name and listen.

I still think that it's GREAT that even among the Field Poll, Davis' lead has been cut in HALF and his commercials did NOTHING to help him!!!!

Go Simon!

[Gophack]

I predict Simon will become California's next Governor.

From your computer to the ballot box ...

[Gophack]

Good find.

It's still early to start major campaigning. We have nearly FOUR MONTHS until election day. More than 16 weeks. That's a long time, and voters don't pay attention until after Labor Day (if then). The fact that Davis has maintained huge unfavorables for so long, and is consistently losing support is GOOD NEWS for Simon when he's ready to make his big positive buy.

Go SimoN!

[Gophack]

Victory & Freedom BUMP!

[goldstategop]

Actually I'm pretty confident the Field Poll numbers are way off. The Kathleen Brown campaign was rejoicing in July 1994 over its 7 point lead over then Republican Governor Pete Wilson. We all know how it turned out in November. Its amazing people put so much stock in a poll that's gotten every statewide result apart from 1998, absolutely wrong every time. No way GrayDown gets re-elected with those awful negatives he has unless he has a miraculous recovery by early Fall. This July's Field Poll guesstimate is an almost sure sign a Simon victory's in the cards.