An analysis of Gov. Gray Davis' new campaign ad

Whoops - sorry - didn't mean you, I just wanted you to see my reply.

I think you would admit my basic point was good.

D

I completely agree with you, and of course my "idiot" allusion was made affectionately. :-)

You know guys, it isn't very comforting to read the posts from you. In those posts I read that you think I don't support Simon, I've given up on Simon, I think Davis is the better candidate, I'm folding at the hint of bad news or some other lunacy. Earth to my fellow forum participants, I'm addressing the impact of Davis commercials and whether that impact is going to gain some traction or not.

What am I supposed to think when you guys can't even address the issue I've addressed without extrapolating any of these assumptions on your part? Frankly it doesn't give me much confidence in Simon support.

Davis is a crook. Not only that he has mismanaged this state into a $25 billion dollar rat hole. His energy policies have been nearly fatal to the state's budget. His anti-gun stances are legendary. His environmental policies are laughable. At this point in time Simon should be ahead of him in the polls. At this point in time a dead corpse should be ahead of Davis in the polls.

Here you are finding fault with my comments when what you should be doing is trying to figure out why Simon isn't shellacing Davis in the polls. For when you figure that out, I think you're going to find that my comments and the comments of others on this thread are pointing to some real problems for Simon. And dismissing our comments out of hand or misconstruing their meaning and intent isn't going to get you anywhere.

First, calm down.

I think we were responding more to JoeFromCa, who appeared to say that there's no hope and we'd might as well give up. That statement is surely absurd on the face of it.

Overoptimism is bad, but defeatism is just as bad. Both impulses have to be combatted. Overoptimism is bad because it causes us to be complacent. Defeatism is bad because it causes us to give up. Perhaps we won't even visit the polls since we are so confident of a Davis victory in November.

I think that when you look at the numbers, you have to recognize that Simon has pulled off something pretty impressive. Here he was, almost two points ahead of Davis, with no political experience, little money and a definite lack of exposure. We should not put down the Simon campaign for being as successful as they are. Instead, we should try and offer constructive ideas for how to make it work even better.

Otherwise, our friends in the Simon campaign are going to be depressed and demoralized, and frankly, I don't think they deserve it.

So instead of panicking, we should calm down, put our heads together, and try to figure out a few good ideas for our friend Bill Simon. Saying we've already lost isn't going to help him win, is it?

Hope that helps.

D

Please point out what area of my response you don't like.

And my response to that is "So what?" Should everyone just adopt Joe's defeatism and give up? There's no evidence of a drop in support (via polls) yet, if any will even occur. President Bush hasn't pulled back from his scheduled fundraiser. So whatever damage last week may or may not have done, folks need to press forward and keep the faith. These emotional rollercoasters (I'm not referring to you here) are simply a waste of energy. They remind me vividly of all manic depression during the summer of 2000. Every good Bush poll or article evoked celebration and high fives, while a subsequent pro Gore poll/article brought out the naysayers and handwringers. Stay the course. Grayout Davis is a seriously wounded incumbent.

You want a reason why Simon is tied instead of ahead of Davis in the polls? Two reasons: 1) The media. 2) All the naysayers running around wailing and gnashing their teeth because Davis is rich and Simon isn't leading. This defeatism feeds off of itself. One of the most important things a campaign needs is the belief among the regular voters that it can win. That belief unfortunately is waivering, in large part because of the biased media. But I think it's also doubt because of CA's recent voting history and because conservatives by nature are just really good at whining and really poor at becoming active. Just my two cents.

Gray Davis has simply awful numbers. He will not inspire a large turnout. But the media and conservatives can certainly inspire a poor turnout for Simon, if we let them, thereby handing the mansion back to Davis for four more years.

To: DoughtyOne; Coop; NormsRevenge; bonesmccoy

First, calm down.

I'm at a loss to understand the basis for that comment. It has been the people with opposing views who have labeled my comments for everything but what they were. Why don't you guys calm down. Sheesh. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black...

I think we were responding more to JoeFromCa, who appeared to say that there's no hope and we'd might as well give up. That statement is surely absurd on the face of it.

Well Joe did state his case more emphaticly than I would have, but damning the messenger isn't going to get you guys anywhere. The fact is those adds cannot be helpful to Simon. To act otherwise is silly.

Overoptimism is bad, but defeatism is just as bad. Both impulses have to be combatted. Overoptimism is bad because it causes us to be complacent. Defeatism is bad because it causes us to give up. Perhaps we won't even visit the polls since we are so confident of a Davis victory in November.

Perhaps you can point to a place where Joe and I stated that we were giving up on Simon and that you should fold your camp and go home. Are you reading the same comments that we are writing?

I think that when you look at the numbers, you have to recognize that Simon has pulled off something pretty impressive. Here he was, almost two points ahead of Davis, with no political experience, little money and a definite lack of exposure. We should not put down the Simon campaign for being as successful as they are. Instead, we should try and offer constructive ideas for how to make it work even better.

Would you please point me to where either of us damned the Simon campaign for anything. It is astounding to read the fabrications in your posts, attributed to Joe and I. How about a reality check.

Otherwise, our friends in the Simon campaign are going to be depressed and demoralized, and frankly, I don't think they deserve it.

I did not damn the Simon campaign. I did not say they should give up. I made a few comments regarding a smear campaign against Simon stating that I did not support them, but did think they would be detrimental to Simon. In response you and others have basicly come unglued. You can't even address our comments without misinterpreting them or even addressing their true content.

So instead of panicking, we should calm down, put our heads together, and try to figure out a few good ideas for our friend Bill Simon. Saying we've already lost isn't going to help him win, is it?

You know, the word panicking is a good one to describe exactly what you have done. For a guy that hasn't gotten one thing right regarding my comments you have a lot of nerve using that word refering to me.

Hope that helps.

Well, it didn't help much, but it was quite revealing.

D

24 posted on 8/6/02 10:27 AM Pacific by daviddennis

Please point out what area of my response you don't like.

And my response to that is "So what?" Should everyone just adopt Joe's defeatism and give up?

Did anyone even remote suggest that you should?

There's no evidence of a drop in support (via polls) yet, if any will even occur.

Evidently you would state that the status quo is a great position to defend. You don't know if Simon would have gained points either. The fact is I doubt there is polling data available since those adds were run. Perhaps there is. I cannot believe those commercials are going to have zero effect. You guys seem to think it will have none. I would submit that a negative of that caliber is going to have an effect. You will submit that they won't.

President Bush hasn't pulled back from his scheduled fundraiser. So whatever damage last week may or may not have done, folks need to press forward and keep the faith. These emotional rollercoasters (I'm not referring to you here) are simply a waste of energy. They remind me vividly of all manic depression during the summer of 2000. Every good Bush poll or article evoked celebration and high fives, while a subsequent pro Gore poll/article brought out the naysayers and handwringers. Stay the course. Grayout Davis is a seriously wounded incumbent.

Look, I veiwed the add. You and your buds here are tuned into the political process. You are aware that facts have been twisted to tar Simon. I'd say there probably isn't 5% of the populace out there that is as tuned in to politics as you are. They will hear these adds in the background and come away thinking Simon has problems. That's negative. Spin it any way you like. State that we are emotional. State that we are trying to demoralize everyone. State anything you like. We have given our opinions of reality, and for that we are the target of comments that are unwilling to deal with reality.

I never advocated anyone not stay the course. That you try to infer otherwise reflects very badly on you.

You want a reason why Simon is tied instead of ahead of Davis in the polls? Two reasons: 1) The media. 2) All the naysayers running around wailing and gnashing
their teeth because Davis is rich and Simon isn't leading. This defeatism feeds off of itself. One of the most important things a campaign needs is the belief among the
regular voters that it can win. That belief unfortunately is waivering, in large part because of the biased media. But I think it's also doubt because of CA's recent
voting history and because conservatives by nature are just really good at whining and really poor at becoming active. Just my two cents.

You know what, I addressed one commercial. So far you guys have addressed everything but that one commercial. This is about the third thread I have entered regarding Simon this year. In it I made some reasoned comments regarding one commercial. In reaction you guys have gone off the deep end.

A reasoned response to my comments would have been, "Yes I saw those commercials and agree that they were very bad. I think Simon should create a thrity second spot to explain why he isn't connected to those charges." Instead each of you posted comments regarding Joe's and my attitudes. That was so lame. If you guys can't take one or two honest expression of opinion in stride over eight months, you've got the problem and not Joe and I.

Gray Davis has simply awful numbers. He will not inspire a large turnout. But the media and conservatives can certainly inspire a poor turnout for Simon, if we let
them, thereby handing the mansion back to Davis for four more years.

If you seriously think Joe's and my comments here are going to turn the "mansion" back over to Davis, then I'm talking to the wrong people. I had sought to talk to people who had some political savy.

25 posted on 8/6/02 10:33 AM Pacific by Coop

I have read through all the posts, twice now. You seem to be fairly defensive and emotional. Perhaps you were unfairly lumped in with Joe, but you chose to align yourself with his comments in your first post. Don't blame me for that choice.

I cannot believe those commercials are going to have zero effect. You guys seem to think it will have none.

Nonsense. I just find it silly for all the naysayers and handwringers to CONTINUALLY say Simon doesn't have a prayer, when the numbers say otherwise. Should the polls subsequently show a drop in support, I'll worry then. Should the polls remain the same (Simon has led in nine of eleven polls), I'll undoubtedly continue to counter all the naysayers and handwringers who will still insist Grayout can't be beat.

I even took pains to exclude you from that group - perhaps an error on my part. :-) Live and learn.

I think the implications of the statements made by JoeFromCa were pretty clear, but you have a perfect right to disagree.

I doubt that this particular ad is going to gain much traction, although to its credit it was at least less dishonest than Davis' earlier efforts.

I'm more worried about how the fraud issue will impact Simon, even though I think it was a bogus verdict. A five-second sound bite is enough for Simon to look bad.

To put this on a more constructive vein, how would you suggest Simon react to Davis' latest onslaught, and to the fraud situation? What additional steps should he take?

D

I have pointed out that your comments and the comments of others have not dealt with reality. A number of assumptions that were made by you and others had no basis in fact. But when I pointed that out, I was the one that was defensive and emotional. I guess it never dawned on you that by making those eronious assumptions and reacting to them as if they were fact, you guys were being emotional and defensive.

As for Joe's comments, he lamented the commercials and the impact that he felt that would have. I don't see why that elicited an attack from some folks other than the fact that you guys are so defenisive and juvenile. I don't see a single person on this thread that doesn't support Simon, but if one of us addresses the truth as we see it you guys break out into a cold sweat.

LOL, who is it that is doing all the handwringing? Joe and I provided our observations. You guys are the ones that couldn't properly assess what those comments stated. As for you challenging all the naysayers, that's downright laughable. And you have the nerve to call someone else defensive, emotional? Good one.

Well that may have been an error on your part, but it sure as heck wasn't the only one, or even the largest.

You're beyond help.

Yes Joe's comments were pretty clear. I have said that they were stronger than what I would have stated. It seems to me that a simple comment that Joe was over reacting was called for. The other comments were unfortunate in my opinion.

Look you and I agree that Davis is a bottom feeding idiot. His commercials are not accurate, fair, or reasonable by any stretch of the imagination. None the less their overall impact can not be ignored, avoided or ruled "out of bounds" for reasonable discourse.

I am also worried about the fraud issue. Coming at a time when the populace has lost large portions of their retirement funding, are hearing all sorts of bad things about corporate executives, these charges against Simon are serious. Your comments about that five second sound bite are quite accurate in my opinion. How much less will the thirty second sound bite's impact be?

Frankly, I'm not sure what the best course of action would be to combat the charges. Not reacting could seem to be an admission. Reacting could cause it's own problems. If any response proves to be slightly inaccurate later on, it could be fatal politically.

Another problem is this, when you have the likes of Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Gary Condit and Gray Davis denying some pretty serious charges when you know better, it's pretty difficult for a guy like Simon to stand up and be taken seriously defrending himself against false charges. I guess that's why I view these charges and skewed political spots of Davis' so seriously. It's almost to the point that political denials are dismissed much the same as denials of child molestation charges are. (That does not mean that I am comparing these charges. I am only comparing the public's penchant for accepting or rejecting the denials in each instance.)

There's also the problem that Davis has put out these charges so that Simon will have to spend big bucks putting out denials, and not on his message.

Frankly, this is nearly a no win situation. It may be best to let the chips fall where they do, and play your own game ignoring Davis.

Thanks for addressing the remedy to the problem. I think that is the most productive reaction to the comments Joe and I made. To tell the truth, that is the reaction I was looking for, the best possible reaction being adopted to combat the Davis team.

D1 and Joe. While you have your rights to your prerceptions of what is currently a wide open race for all intents and purposes, understand that many of us feel very passionately about our state and its govt. To just walk away from Simon now would be exactly what the liebrals, socialists, etc want to see. GraYouT deserves a good ass-whuppin' to the bitter end. If he wins , fine, but he will earn it, not woffle in. 3 months to go. We shall see who is standing at the end.Let it be the better man, plug your nose and vote your conscience November 5th.

Thanks Coop ! :-)Should the polls subsequently show a drop in support, I'll worry then.

LOLOL..

I guess we're from The Alfred E. Neuman wing of the Conservatives. WHAT? ME WORRY?

Naw. I just figure there's enough tangible stuff for us to worry about without creating more.

This fight for the governorship of California is just beginning. There are 12 weeks left prior to the election. That's enough time for the voters to become better educated regarding the facts.

Fortunately, the fraud issue looks like it's stillborn. I just posted the full response from the Simon campaign, and it looks completely credible and to the point. I hope you'll check it out.

Looks to me like the Simon campaign has a good story to tell, which is a relief. Most likely Bill Simon was not in touch with this case because he was not directly involved. I think it's easy to underestimate the number of balls someone like Bill Simon has in the air.

Aside from that, the main reason I participated in this thread was to tell you and others that it was and is wildly premature to simply wring your hands and say the Simon campaign has a problem. Of course it does. But the Davis campaign has a worse one. Frankly, I'd put my money on Simon simply because those who know him like him. Those who know Davis don't. At best they want to buy influence.

That doesn't drive turnout come November. 'nuff said.

D