Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-01 (New Thread)

Various | 2004-09-01 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Free Republic Community:



Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !

It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...



Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers






Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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[mwyounce]

I'm in Jacksonville and the weather dudes here are stressing that there is still a lot of margin for error. We are preparing nonetheless.

When you said "Weather Dude" I knew just who you were talking about.... Donna Hazouri-Clewis-Hicken-Deegan's husband, right? :D

Stay safe... I've got family up on SSI. They're headed north on Friday.

[Gabz]

That track would bite.

All of them would bite...............except for the one that isn't there........tack to the east and out to sea.

[surely_you_jest]

Thanks. For future reference, where can I access this?

[alancarp]

Wednesday Morning Model Roundup, with their strike projections:

ETA - Miami, 6pm FRI, crossing to Ft. Myers

GFDL - mid-Georgia coast, 8PM SUN., then riding up I-16. This model has consistently been moving further west for two days.

GFS - follows same track as GFDL. Notably, these models stall Frances off the coast of Melbourne/Cocoa for nearly 24 hours before moving it up the coast. That's probably the worst case scenario for Cape Canaveral.

European - Vero Beach/Melbourne, 8AM Sat Morning. This is significant as the Euro has been consistently doing the 'Andrew Track' for 2+ days... and has suddenly flipped to the consensus.

UKMET - Ft. Pierce to Tampa, strike time 8PM Friday evening. The Tampa crossing seems unlikely, given the angle of approach, and the frictional effect of the hurricane. Much more likely to 'skip' along the coast and go to Orlando or Sanford from there.

NOGAPS - Roughly West Palm Beach, 8AM Saturday. Crosses to Tampa.

Accuweather isn't quarreling with the Hurricane Center's track, but really likes the GFDL solution path. In their position, it's hard to argue with the 'Official' forecast, but they're at least saying "stay alert" to our friends in Georgia.

Since this is a political discussion forum, it's probably also right and proper to mention the political impacts of a Florida East Coast strike. Brevard County (Melbourne/Palm Bay/Cocoa/Titusville/Merritt Island/etc.) is HEAVILY Republican. Palm Beach County is HEAVILY Democrat. I believe the Vero-to-Port St. Lucie area is Democrat teritory. Ft. Pierce/Stuart may lean GOP. There could certainly be fewer voters in November in whatever area gets hammered by this, unless all-out efforts are made to recover.

[sarasota]

Disney survived the last hurricane with only some trees downed. They closed for half a day Friday and re-opened Saturday.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers




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[surely_you_jest]

Thanks.

[lafroste]

My family has an already bought and paid for week to Disneyworld on Sept 11 (a great day for flying). Partially, this is a business trip. Based on my experience with How Things Work, Frances will either be a direct hit on Orlando (where it will stall for two days) or it will take a last second hard right turn and go right over Raleigh, NC.

[TongRat]

Howdy Joe,

I just talked to my daughter in St. Lucie,she says they may be evacuating by thursday,that walmart is out of supplies and that the plywood is very expensive..they plan on heading north somewhere..but don't know where yet..my prayers are with you and your family-I hope that everyone will be safe and sound.

[Law is not justice but process]

Something odd is happening with this storm. In the last few hours it has become elongated in a roughly North-South Axis. Any ideas on what is causing This? I remember Hugo became elongated on a NW-SE axis before landfall as it was caught between a high pressure system to the north and a low to the south. That juxtaposition increased Hugo's froward speed and shot it straight at Charleston.

The increased forward speed greatly increased the wind damage - particularly north of the eye's landfall - but mercifully got it out of SC in a hurry. I sure hope the map putting Frances over Central Florida for 24 hours is wrong, or this could be the worst hurricane ever in the US.

A word of warning to those in South Florida who are on the fence about preparations and evacuation: the NHC and most private forecasters predicted a late northward turn by Hugo that would spare Charleston and threaten Myrtle Beach and Wilmington instead (I think it was only Accuweather that got it right - but my memory is not clear on that point). Many in the Charleston area counted on that as an excuse to stay home and minimize preparations (including my Father). They were wrong - it came straight to Charleston. As someone already said on this thread, IGNORE THE THIN LINE!

Another fragment of Hugo experience. When the storm was 1 day out max winds were 110 or so. Before it got to land they were approaching 140. Hurricanes can deepen (intensify) very rapidly over warm water. My advice is prepare for the maximum wind on the NHC wind probability chart. It may not happen, but you do not want to be around if the storm you thought was a category 2 comes in as a strong 4.

[sarasota]

I'm going to Raleigh tomorrow. A friend who lives there says to prepare for lots of rain. Any idea when it might get there, if indeed it does take a right turn?

[alancarp]

Watch what latitude Frances is at when it crosses the 74 degree meridian. The further north of 24, the better. 23.5-24.0 suggests Vero to GA; less than 23 degrees suggests Ft. Pierce to Miami (all of this in the absence of significant turns, which no model is projecting right now).

[Protect the Bill of Rights]

Told you I was a dummy!
Okay, I learn two things every day
:-)

[Lady Composer]

Yep, watching this very closely for the folks in Lake Wales and yourselves!

[RedBloodedAmerican]

The inital track for Charley was coming in above Ft Meyers and exiting Daytona. Then they changed it and then were wrong.

The initial for Frances was in at Daytona and out the top roughly north of Lake City. Now they changed it. But the strike probability still has it Daytona
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604P+GIF/011008P.gif
in spite of the maps.

[Guenevere]

bttt

[68 grunt]

My wife and daughter are in Merritt Island, so I've been watching. I kinda like this projection :~(

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604P+GIF/011008P.gif

[alancarp]

Raleigh (it may happen regardless of turn) around Monday-Tuesday.

[RedBloodedAmerican]

think hard about going there. Most people die from flooding in hurricanes, not the winds.

By the time it hits NC it will bring more rain than when it hits Florida.

I got only 1-1/2" rain from charley and the eye went over me. But winds were over 90mph.

If you leave head for Miss. or Bama. But Ft Meyers is a good choice.

[lafroste]

I imagine it would get here sometime on Sunday, but that is just an uneducated guess. Also, it looks like none of the models predict a track through NC at this time. But NC has such a catcher's mitt for these things, that any turn north from our perspective is bad news. We are already soaking wet and another bout of rain with high winds will bring down a lot of trees.

BTW: How long are you planning to stay in Raleigh?