[Cincinatus' Wife]

Venezuela faces civil war on road to democracy *** For his part, Chavez, after promising to moderate his polarizing rhetoric in April, has failed to create an atmosphere of reconciliation and dialogue. The opposition's obstinacy and coup-mongering, nevertheless, are an inexcusable war of attrition on weak democratic institutions. So should Chavez go? He is, after all, the democratically elected leader who has not breached the constitution. Crisis calls for immediate measures.

The Bush administration's public call for early presidential elections bolstered the opposition, agitated the president and indirectly undermined a pro-government but moderate representative's constitutional amendment proposal for early elections. Chavez is loath to appear in concert with a U.S. policy torn between oil interests and a thinly veiled preference for regime change. The recalcitrant opposition refuses to wait for August, when a binding referendum on Chavez's rule can be held. So again Venezuela faces civil war or dialogue. With hesitant and muted diplomacy from the United States and fruitless mediation efforts led by the Organization of American States, the former is more likely. ***

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Chávez camp sees Venezuelan situation less critical than foes ……….Inside the president's compound, soldiers with rifles patrol the grounds around the main palace, a square one-story building set around a Moorish-styled fountain, and a newer office tower. ''There's not that much work now, not so many public functions and more meetings inside the palace,'' one presidential photographer said. The strike demanding that Chávez resign or call early elections has cut the world's fifth largest oil industry to 30 percent of its normal output, shuttered stores and factories and blocked streets and highways

César Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organization of American States, has repeatedly warned of widespread violence if the negotiations he's overseeing between Chávez and opposition envoys do not reach agreement soon. But the presidential guard sergeant's easy flirting on Wednesday underscored the view in Miraflores that Chávez's vast shuffling of military commanders this summer thwarted any chance of another coup. ''The president's people really believe they are over that hump, something that gives them time to dig in and break the strike,'' said a Western diplomat who meets often with government officials.

Chávez brands his opponents as a small group of corrupt rich people and labor leaders bent on triggering another coup and ending his leftist ''Bolivarian Revolution'' on behalf of Venezuela's poor majority. Like most Chávez supporters, Max Arvelaiz, a French native who works in the palace as an advisor to the Ministry of the Presidency, does not perceive the situation outside as critical as the president's foes. ''We know that anything can still happen. We are going through a deep crisis,'' Arvelaiz said, ``but things are starting to move in our favor, and when [the opposition] decided to strike, we knew it was something crazy, their last chance.''***