Way-Too-Early Midterm Election Predictions

Granddaddy Long Legs ^

[cchandler]

If you're like me, you're skeptical of articles like this one by AP writer, Ron Fournier:

Republicans are three steps from a November shellacking -- each a grim possibility if habitually divided Democrats get their acts together.

First step: Voters must focus on the national landscape on Nov. 7 rather than local issues and personalities that usually dominate midterm elections.

That would sting Republicans, who trail badly in national polls.

Second step: Voters must be so angry at Washington and politics in general that an anti-incumbent, throw-the-bums-out mentality sweeps the nation.

That would wound Republicans, the majority party.

Third step: Americans must view the elections as a referendum on President Bush and the GOP-led Congress, siding with Democrats in a symbolic vote against the Iraq war, rising gas prices, economic insecurity and the nagging sense that the nation is on the wrong track.

That would destroy Republicans, sweeping them from power in one or both chambers and making Bush a lame duck.

Less than six months out, most Democratic and Republican strategists say the first two elements are in place for now -- a national, anti-incumbent mind-set -- and all signs point to the third.

This piece from the AP echoes the tired "the Republicans are finished" rhetoric that has been so prevalent among Democrats in general, and liberal extremists in particular, since the year 2000. The underlying theme of this rhetoric seems to thrive on the fallacy that an emotional belief in something, and a vocal repetition of that belief, eventually makes it true. Such fallacious logic is usually supported with passion, and these people are left agog when their predictions miss the mark.....

[cchandler]

I think most incumbents are safe. I don't think Democrat voters will turn out in numbers large enough to unseat Republican incumbents in traditionally Republican districts. I think (pardon this phrase) that we are seeing the storm before the calm -- the airing of grievances at Festivus -- the venting of frustrations against Congressional legislators by their constituents.

Voters are just plain fed up with the petty partisanship and tele-pandering that dominates their nightly newscasts, and they want to feel like someone is looking out for them instead of looking after their own wallets.

In short, this is the voters' way of telling their Congressmen that they'll show up to vote on November 7th, but it's not an endorsement of their record -- it's merely to vote against the other guy.

[Jameison]

"In short, this is the voters' way of telling their Congressmen that they'll show up to vote on November 7th,"

All Republican congressmen have to do is chop off the head of the McCain/Kennedy Senate Amnesty Bill, and make sure its well and truly dead, and Republicans will be ready to turn up strongly for right thinking Republican candidates in November.

[angkor]

It is up to the House to save the Republican Party from a big whumping come Novemeber.

Kill the amnesty, and you are heros. Kick it until it's dead.

Pass it, and this Republican of 40 years will turn his back on you, as you pass the most seditious legislation in my lifetime, and that of many generations to come.

It's very simple.