AP Oversamples Dems In New Poll... And Can Only Come Out with a Statistical Tie

Ace of Spades ^

[hecht]

AP Oversamples Dems In New Poll... And Can Only Come Out with a Statistical Tie —Ace OMG: They actually didn't even note this remarkable finding, and of course the most interesting data in the poll, in the headline.

Wait, did I say they didn't mention the 44-42 result in the headline? I meant they didn't mention it in the entire article.

It could be that they think this is an outlier and so don't want to promote the result they got.

However, the MSM has no problem at all vigorously promoting outlier results which show The One Who Spreads the Wealth up by 15 or more points.

So:

1) They don't believe the poll;

or

2) They don't want to believe the poll.

Or some combination of those together.

[Jeff Head]

Please spread the word and help defeat the MSM and Obama campaign to supress the conservative vote by pointing folks to:

SARAH PALIN DRAWING LARGE CROWDS ALL ACROSS AMERICA
http://www.jeffhead.com/palin/palin-hiding.htm

One look at those crowds and people will know the real truth about what is happening on the ground in this campaign right now, and puts the lie to the MSM push polls.

[Army Air Corps]

Ping to self for later read.

[JennysCool]

I posted this on an earlier thread. I'll post it one more time here:

The polls -- commissioned, after all, by media outlets -- are designed to extract the most advertising dollars from both campaigns. Presidential elections are the political Super Bowl for the MSM, and political advertising differs from the run-of-the-mill since it has to be paid for in advance. It's cold, hard cash for a media sorely in need of it.

So you bet they'll make it look close until the bitter end, on occasion showing one candidate or the other building a lead so the other candidate increases his advertising buys.

These polls are all about money for the Drive-Bys.

I'd add that as the election grows closer, and the MSM and their hired pollsters decide they've wrung every last dollar out of this thing, the polls will begin to more clearly reflect reality, in order to maintain the polling firms' reputations.

[housedeep]

i was laughing about this poll earlier today...its like how many fone calls did they have to keep making to find someone who wants to vote for obama.

[hoosiermama]

Actually got polled today.

Poller: are you planning on voting?
H-mama: You betcha!
Poller: Will you be voting for McCain or BO?

H-mama: My father and I, and at least five of my “D” neighbors will be voting for McCain.....Guess that means, according to Murtha, we're living in a “racist neighborhood”!

Poller: sputtered.

[Star Traveler]

You said — “Poller: sputtered.”

That’s because those who poll probably don’t even vote and barely get minimum wage anyway. “Just gimme my money...” (after the polling is over...).

[LS]

I’m telling you, there is a quiet, and big, movement to McCain since last week, even before the debate. Dayton Daily News came out with a poll Sunday showing McCain winning Obama by 2. I have info that he may be doing even better than that. If he’s doing that well here, he has to be doing pretty well in PA.

[man from mars]

You have you ask yourself why is Mr Bra ck H. Obama run ads in Maryland. This is a state that should be easy for him to win! Well he might be running some for the North Va market! or he is having more problems with White Democrats that we think. Many of my circle of friends are voting for Mcain as well. Only the African American are solid for Mr Brack H. Obama.

[rlferny]

I know so many democrats this year voting McCain that I can’t believe the polls are this close.

It amazes me. People that I never in my entire life though would vote republican are voting for McCain.

[samm1148]

The dems aren’t acting like winners. For people that have it ‘in the bag’ they don’t act like that. I was taken to task by a DNC operative over a letter to the editor I’d written that expressed my distaste for BO.

They aren’t acting like winners. I know the last time poll numbers were questioned the republicans lost the congress but...I just have a feeling that this is going to be closer than advertised.

[hoosiermama]

Don't be so sure about the black vote. My cousin lives
in an mixed race neighborhood in Indy. They are so angry and embarrassed by the 110%+ people registered in the precincts and the fact that a VERY capable, well liked AA gentleman was “defeated by fraud” in the last election that they are quite angry about the “D” party using and disenfranchising their vote.

[r9etb]

While it's wonderfully tempting to believe that this matters, I really don't think that it does.

The claim seems to be that because there are more of one group polled than another, the reported poll results will necessarily be skewed by the same amount.

In reality, any pollster would adjust the numbers to reflect the actual ratios of R, D, and "Other" voters, based on voter registration statistics, for example. A simple-minded approach would be to use registration stats to scale both samples to a theoretical 1000-person sample.

There are less tractable issues, such as (perhaps) differences in how easy it is to contact an R vs. a D -- are the former more likely to have unlisted numbers, for example? Are Republicans more or less likely to respond to a poll?

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of the poll results, but I seriously doubt that a failure to account for sampling differences is one of them. There is too much at stake, business-wise, for a pollster to make such a basic error.

[El Cid]

I'd add that as the election grows closer, and the MSM and their hired pollsters decide they've wrung every last dollar out of this thing, the polls will begin to more clearly reflect reality, in order to maintain the polling firms' reputations.

That's also been my observation in the past. The MSM use the polls to manipulate opinion/elections (to charge up 'their team', and to demoralize the opposition). In the day or two before the election they rush closer to reality -- as those are the numbers that get published to establish their credibility (their final poll numbers vs. the actual election outcome). Until then, its all propaganda - and these poll numbers are to be used only for amusement purposes...

[tpanther]

I agree...big and quiet.

I sense an underlying FURIOUS response quite frankly. With the SCOTUS decision, ACORN, bambi giggling and smirking about ACORN fraud, John Lewis calling us George Wallace...

I e-mailed a buddy of mine in Pa. just outside Pittsburgh I haven’t spoken with in months. I asked how are you racist bitter clingers holding up up there?

The drive-bys for bambi are spending more time digging into Joe the plumber/6 pack, average America than they are bambi’s background!

It’s SOOOO condescending for bambi to ask how many plumber’s make $250 K when bambi knocked on HIS DAMN DOOR in the first place!

Bambi knows his idiots will drink that kool-aid and miss that point...but not middle America!

but not too many “undecideds” will miss the point that Joe the plumber explained he was talking about owning his OWN small business...that moeny is used for payroll for other plumbers he might hire...operating expenses...it’s not solely his salary...

even a 5th grader understands this.

I think people don’t buy bambi sat in that church for 20 years apparently napping the whole time...

Michelle’s never been proud of her country?

There’s just too much baggage! And this is just the sh!t we KNOW about!

[newfreep]

No doubt Palin & McDole are drawing huge crowds. I fear the voter fraud via b.hussein's acorn will overwhelm our turnout and nothing will be done before or after the election.

America has become a 3rd world, african banana republic.

[newfreep]

No doubt Palin & McDole are drawing huge crowds. I fear the voter fraud via b.hussein's acorn will overwhelm our turnout and nothing will be done before or after the election.

America has become a 3rd world, african banana republic.

[MurryMom]

Of course they over sampled Democrats. We have a huge advantage in registrations resulting from the need to rid Washington of the incompetent Bush administration that has been in charge of the stock market crash and jobs depression of the past 8 years.

[TBP]

And don’t forget the Bradley Effect.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

I dropped by the county GOP HQ here in Orange Co., NC, to ask for McCain-Palin signs and they were out. They had gotten shipments in at least three times in the past couple of weeks, and were promptly out soon thereafter each time. While I was there (~1 hr.), over a dozen people came in asking about signs, and got put onto a large and growing waiting list for contact when signs do come in. Keep in mind that this is midday on a work day in uber-liberal Orange Co. NC (home of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, David Price, etc....and no, I'm not a welfare bum, I havetoday off from work.) Granted, a lot of the signs are going to replace signs that have been torn down by Dimocrat thugs, but still, there is a huge and currently unmet demand for signs even here.

BTW, a couple of workers at the HQ thought that ACORN or some other group might have placed a bounty on McCain-Palin signs. Have you heard about that being the case anywhere?