Posted on 02/03/2010 7:50:46 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
The fact that so many of the districts on this list are currently held by Democrats reflects how strongly the political landscape is tilting toward the GOP. As always, races toward the top of the list are the most likely to change party control, but every race on this list is a serious possibility to flip.
(Excerpt) Read more at rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com ...
This is an interesting list. Perhaps there are other other seats that should be included.
Charlie Bass, NH-2
pro-abort NARAL villain. Needs to be stopped in the primary.
Jennifer Horn, conservative candidate.
I hope conservatives use the success of Illinois HOUSE primaries on 2/2 as an encouragement to continue to win primaries this year.
The author is focused on open seats which may switch parties. There are numerous open seats where the primary will determine who the next congressman will be.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house
Yeah. Throw back the Bass NH.
Che-Porter’s seat may be more “dangerous” for the rats than CD 2 even though 2 is open.
I hope that poll a couple weeks ago that showed Djou in Hawaii at only 17% is off the mark. That’s damn low.
Before throwing back the Bass, you need a viable candidate to replace him. He can be a conservative—maybe Bruce Keogh?—but he can’t be a nobody like the other guys running. The NH-02 voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 and we need to overcome our natural disadvantage by running someone with experience winning votes from moderates and energizing conservatives.
As for NH-01, don’t worry, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta will send the moonbat packing in November.
Jennifer Horn = NH-2
I don’t know much about Jennifer Horn, other than the fact that she’s got a radio talk show and that she lost by 15% in that district in 2008. Is she very well known in the area?
she must be well known by now. But part of the problem is that the mountains split the district into two parts. So the west is difficult to travel to from the eastern part. Makes it tough for underfunded challengers.
I doubt if her radio show has much reception in the western half of the district. She is from Nashua I think.
The western part of the district (bordering VT) is the most Democrat part of the CD. We’re not going to carry it, but we can’t afford to get trounced there.
A new poll from UNH shows conservative Republican Mayor Frank Guinta of Manchester leading moonbat Congresswoman Shea-Porter in the slightly-GOP-leaning NH-01 by 41%-33% among likely voters. Shea-Porter does not break 40% against any of the other Republican candidates, and NH adults have a net unfavorable opinion of her, with 35% having a favorable opinion and 40% having an unfavorable opinion of her.
In the Democrat-leaning NH-02, 44% of NH adults have a favorable opinion of moderate former GOP Congressman Charlie Bass, with 19% having an unfavorable opinion. Bass leads Democrat frontrunner Katrina Swett (whom he soundly defeated in 2002 in a huge disappointment for Democrats) by 37%-30% among likely voters, and Bass leads Ann McLane Kuster (the other Democrat with a chance to win the primary) by 39%-28%.
Meanwhile, conservative radio talkshow host and 2008 GOP nominee Jennifer Horn is still largely unknown in the NH-02, with only 15% of NH adults having a favorable opinion of her and 9% having an unfavorable opinion of her. Horn leads Kuster by 28%-25%, but Swett leads Horn by 30%-26%.
In the Senate race, the poll shows conservative Republican former AG Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Congressman Paul Hodes by 41%-33% in the Senate race among likely voters. 38% of NH adults have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, with only 12% having an unfavorable opinion of her; these numbers are much better than those of Hodes, regarding whom 32% of NH adults have a favorable opinion and 27% have an unfavorable opinion.
Meanwhile, conservative Republican Ovide Lamontagne remains largely unknown in the state, with 12% of NH adults having a favorable opinion of him and 9% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Hodes leads Lamontagne among likely voters by 38%-29%; indeed, Hodes runs stronger against Lamontagne than even against two nobodies also seeking the GOP nomination.
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_winter_congapp20810.pdf
I think that this poll confirms what I had assumed all along: that Ayotte would almost certainly beat Hodes while Lamontagne would almost certainly lose, that Guinta wil lsend Shea-Porter packing, and that, among Bass and Horn, only Bass has the name ID and experience to defeat the Democrat in November. If things don’t change between now and primary day, I’ll be supporting Ayotte, Guinta and (reluctantly) Bass.
RINO! LOL.
I might be campaigning for Horn on the weekends this summer. Bass is NARAL. Don’t give up the ship too early.
Polls showed Dede was going to be the next congressman from NY23. Things changed!
Dede Scozzafava was absolutely unacceptable, since (i) compared to Dede, Charlie Bass is Jesse Helms, and (ii) Dede was shoved down out throats by RINO county party hacks. If Horn can improve her standing so as to be able to beat Swett in November, then I’ll consider supporting her, but right now I’ll hold my nose and support Bass so as to keep Swett out of Congress.
Does Bruce Keogh live in NH-02? From what I remember from a few years ago he’s a conservative, and would have the profile to be able to win in November; if he ran, I’d almost certainly support him over Bass. I just don’t think that Horn can win this election.
But I'm not gonna root for him in the primary cause Horn trails Swett by 30%-26 with a huge undecided.
NH is one state where I wish the primary was a tad earlier. If there was more time to unite after the primary if a lesser known candidate wins it wouldn't be much an issue. Everyone should know Katrina Swett by now. That she gets the same 30% against both I see as a sign of weakness.
Doubtful, Even with a bitter primary and an ideological split the Democrats have nobody for the Moore coalition to rally around. I will bet the ranch on a Republican pickup in this district regardless of who wins the primary.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.