Posted on 07/27/2010 3:25:02 PM PDT by techno
Being a conservative does not require support for Sarah Palin (who, by the way has not even announced if she is running in 2010), anymore than being a conservative in 2008 required supporting McCain in the primaries. This is our little spot on the web where we vigorously debate the merits of those who would like to get the GOP nomination. Many on FR supported Fred Thompson early on in 2008. There were a few Romney supporters, even a few Rudy fans, lots of McCainiacs, a small but vocal Ron Paul minority.
Expect much of the same from here on out. We ARE the vetting process, or at least a key component of it. It's far too early, and Palin is still (in my opinion) far too unknown as to her beliefs to require unreserved support, as you are trying to enforce.
Lighten up. It's a long way till November 2012!
Your post is chock full, as always, of statistics, trends and really good strategy. A pleasure to read.
I cannot quarrel with much of it. I would only make two observations. One has to do with New Hampshire. I am sure Palin will play the expectations game and accede to the conventional wisdom that Romney is the strong favorite in NH. But now to reality. As you point out in your post, New Hampshire is a retail state and Mitt does not do well with retail politics. As you say, he lost New Hampshire to McCain, an inferior retail politician in 2008 by 5.5%. Matched against Palin, can he expect to do better? I think not. I think she will win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Mitt has a chance to win Nevada becasue of the heavy Mormon vote, but the pressure will be heavy upon him to drop out. I do not expect the nomination fight to be protracted. It will be shorter than it was in 2008, even though the calendar will prolong it. I do not think Mitt can sustain losses in the first three primaries and come back. Reagan did it in 1976 with the help of Helms and his committed organization in NC, but Mit draws no such loyalty.
Second— The Debate with Obama. The MSM will call Obama the winner of the debate no matter how it goes. They did the same for Carter in 1980. It did not work. Carter had a record and Reagan exposed it. More to the point, Reagan showed himself to be a reasonable man who could be President, although there were many more doubts about him them than there are about Palin now. In fact, Carter was leading Reagan by about 3-5 points just before the debate. The Country then became completely comfortable with the idea of Reagan as President and they proceeded to do what had been their inclination for nearly a year. They fired Carter.
I think the former mayor of San Francisco and Speaker of the California Assembly, Willie Brown—a shrewd observer of politics—has commented on Palin’s political genius. Her resignation was a master stroke that freed her to pivot right into the maelstrom here in the lower 48. The liberals had planned to pin her down with ethics complaints, effectively neutralizing her for the Obama “push for socialism” and for the 2010 midterms. She refused to play the game. And her audacity has paid rich dividends already.
She has shown that she is willing to take chances, long chances to win. (She resigned from a lucrative job as Chairman of the Oil and Gas Commission to take down the corrupt Murkoski, a long shot at the time) And she is supremely self confident. She has been through a national campaign, something Reagan had never done until 1980. Reagan always felt the need to rely upon the experts on the national political scene. His adviser’s referred to it as their “Sacramento inferiority complex”. Palin labors under no such disability. she well knows these “consultants” are a bunch of empty suits.
Palin also has an intuitive ear for political combat, and this will be the key to the debate. Just as she coined the term “death panel”, she will deliver a bon mot in the debate that will be replayed and will become the coup de grace for Obama. I would not want to be in Obama’s shoes defending his Marxism against a conservative populist like Palin, particularly one with her political skills.
The Paleo’s supported Ron Paul in 2008. I expect they might support him again in 2012.
I don’t consider myself a paleo, but I respect them more than a lot of people here.
Read it. It reads like a Caroline Kennedy interview, ya know?
From you I take it as the highest compliment.
I was following along with AKReport’s format and she did not include Nevada or any other state in her analysis.
No, it means they are all republicans and we are not going to get anything other than amnesty no matter who we vote for.
Rush was right, the conservatives have not taken control.
Nobody has, you know that so why post it, and your man is the moderate Tim Pawlenty isn't he?
I am sad to say that Our Lady of Wasilla is not popular in NH, for many of the same reasons W only got 29% of the vote in the 2000 primary.
Good point!
Which brings up another one: Free Republic has always had some weird out-of-the-mainstream home town favorites. Based on FR support you'd have thought Alan Keyes was going to give Bush a run for his money in 2000. Or that Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo were near the top of the GOP field.
It's a little too early to consign the huge popularity that Palin has here to that category, but she could be the Fred Thompson of 2012. (The biggest guy who coulda-shoulda been a contender, but just never got there.
Based on our collective track record I would not say that FR's monster Palin support bodes especially well for her.
As you say, he lost New Hampshire to McCain, an inferior retail politician in 2008 by 5.5%.
If you are saying McCain was an inferior retail politician I’d disagree. McCain spent much of the year prior to the primary in NH roaming the state meeting one on one with the locals. He held over 100 town hall meetings during that year and pretty much spent his spare time there.
NH requires that of their candidates and the ones that spend the effort will come out best. I’m not sure just yet who will spend that kind of time in NH come 2011. It’s harder on Palin just because of her AK home base which I”m sure she would alter if she became a candidate.
JMO and yours may differ. Take care.
Helpful hint. Right-click on the picture, then go to 'properties'. The resulting window usually (not always) gives you the name of the picture.
When I pointed out Mitt lost to McCain by 5.5% in NH my focus was not on McCain or how he came about winning NH but on Romney and how he did not live to expectations.
Frankly I don’t know how good a retail politician Mitt is, we see so little of him, but I do know how good Sarah is when she gets down to business.
I'm interested in hearing more from him. I'm interested in hearing more from Palin too. I've probably heard enough from Gary Johnson.
I think both Johnson and Pawlenty are obviously running. Johnson has formed an proxy comittee that can turn into a campaign comittee with some paperwork. Pawlenty has hired a national campaign manager. Both have issue websites:
TimPawlenty.com aka Freedom First
Gary Johnson's "Our America Initative"
Johnson for America is the unabashed campaign site.
In contrast Palin has only fan sites, like Palin4Pres2012 and the Draft Sarah Palin site. She doesn't appear to be involved in either.
So I think it's a lot more apparent that Pawlenty and Johnson are running than Palin. (Neither of them is making seven figure incomes as a private citizen, either!)
Oh yeah, Mitt's got the Free & Strong America PAC /Romney political site. So he's about where Johnson and Pawlenty are.
Unfortunately she is slow on her feet in interviews. (She did well in the debate though, I thought.)
SarahPAC is Gov. Palin’s leadership PAC. Gov. Palin has been very active in the primaries and her endorses have won just about every race.
Do you honestly think the “Mamma Grizzly” web ad was just for sh*t and giggles.
I hope I cleared that up for you. There are 10-12 anti-Palin posters who post, and 5-6 hangers who will post anti-Palin comments. There is also some dumba$$es who cannot disguise randon trolling, leftism, general gender insults and the ever popular, “SHE GAVE UP THE OFFICE OF GOVERNOR OF ALASKA AND IS THEREFORE NOT POTUS MATERIAL”. These people are just transparent and boring, thus, rarely awarded.
Do we get a free Margarita or something if we find one at #1 or #2?
Does it count if they are members of JouroList? :P
oops....meant #2 or #3!
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