Posted on 10/06/2010 11:10:21 AM PDT by MichaelNewton
Looking at RealClearPolitics.com you see some interesting things in the currently held Democratic seats.
They don't even list AZ4 where Janet Contreras (R) is running. All the poll watchers just assume Pastor will win and polls aren't being done. They might be surprised.
Gosar (R) is beating Kirkpatrick in the only poll: http://goo.gl/yubq
Schweikart (R) beating Mitchell, as we all know: http://goo.gl/89ir
Jesse Kelly (R) tied with Giffords! I'm surprised by this one: http://goo.gl/Fkap
They also are not polling the Grijalva (D) race, yet some are saying this too is a close race: http://goo.gl/pqRZ
The point is that nobody has any clue who will win these races. Polls haven't been done since August or never and Republicans have gained strength since then. We should assume that no Democratic seat is safe!
Go Jessie Go!
“Down goes Harry Mitchell, down goes Harry Mitchell....”
Thank you for the clearly written thread.
All too often, out-of-stater’s can’t tell who is who for House races.
“Thank you for the clearly written thread.”
You are welcome and thanks for the comment.
I am just shocked at how these close races are not getting polled. I heard Janet Contreras speak last night along with John McCain and Ben Quayle and she is a great candidate and has a good chance to win. But nobody has even polled that district. Most of the AZ districts have either never been polled or were last polled back in August. Considering we have one open seat (Quayle running as the Republican) and four seats that could change from Dem to Rep, you’d think there would be more polling.
So whenever I hear numbers like 50 seats switching, I know that this is just a guess. I think there could be a lot of surprises in November, even more than people currently think.
The TV ads are well done and almost sound right - I hope Jesse counters with his TV ads during the 10 pm news hours...
Of course, Gabby is lying -
http://www.votejessekelly.com/news/2010/09/25/giffords-lie-2
Grijalva is a communist SOB who needs to be retired. But the 7th Congressional District has been so gerrymandered that is is nearly impossible to get rid of this clown. Yuma and La Paz counties are heavily conservative, but we do not have the population to counter his base in Tucson and western Maricopa county. I do not see him losing this race.
We will be stuck with him for at least 1 more term. The only hope for those of us in Yuma is a GOP controlled House that will re-district.
Grijalva is the worst. For non-Arizonans, this guy supported the boycott of his own state. But as sean327 said, that district will probably be the last of any in Arizona to vote Republican. Which is a real shame because Ruth McClung is a really good candidate. But in this year, you never know...
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