A Republican tsunami? My official election prediction for the House of Representatives.

The Path to Tyranny Blog ^ | October 22, 2010 | Michael E. Newton

[MichaelNewton]

So here is my official prediction for the House of Representatives:

Republicans gain 61 seats and finish with 239 seat, about 55% of the total. This is more than the 50-seat gain predicted at FiveThirtyEight and the 58-seat gain predicted by RCP, but less than some others are talking about. On the low end, I would expect Republicans to win 50 seats. So my low end projection is equal to FiveThirtyEight’s middle-of-the-road projection. On the high end, I think it unlikely that Republicans win more than 76 seats*, much less than some are saying is possible. (I will update this prediction in the comments section as new polls come in.)

[MichaelNewton]

Read the whole blog post for the full analysis of how I came up with those projections.

[GeronL]

I said 60 House and 7 Senate

It’s just a wild-eyed uneducated guess.

[Bulwinkle]

76 trombones lead the BIG Parade....
has been my pick for a while

[LS]

Pretty close to the 55-8 I posted year yesterday, though without any “ediccated” analysis.

[bray]

100+ predicted a year ago.

Pray for America

[MuttTheHoople]

Have a friend, who’s very observant of the political system, who’s convinced the GOP wins 136 seats. Some analysts say there are about 100 seats in play and if there are, I say the GOP wins every one of them.

[who knows what evil?]

We can ‘Seat the 300’ but that would only take 122... :-)

[Rashputin]

110 to 115 or else we're in very, very, deep do do.

Regards

[Lurker]

Is there some copyright issue that prevents you from posting your entire article here?

[Riflema]

Here, here! I say around 106. + 7 Senate

[MichaelNewton]

“Is there some copyright issue that prevents you from posting your entire article here?”
Could have. Maybe I should have. The only real benefit of seeing it on my site is that there are links to the data I use.

[JimRed]

Regardless of the number gained, things have to change. We must hold their feet to the fire for every debate, proposal and vote. NO MORE RINO BEHAVIOR!

[MichaelNewton]

Here’s the whole text:

Many, if not most, political analysts are talking about the Republican tsunami due on November 2. According to current projections at FiveThirtyEight, Republicans are expected to capture 7 Senate seats, 50 House seats, 6 Governorships. Analysts are calling this the biggest year since 1994. Michael Barone says it may be even bigger than that:

“For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.”

Maybe the results will be closer to Michael Barone’s high-end prediction than RCP and FiveThirtyEight. To betray my political affiliation, as if you didn’t already know, I hope it is. But currently, the polling suggests it won’t be. FiveThirtyEight’s statistical analysis has the Republicans winning 228.4 House seats. RCP hs the Republicans at 235.5 if we give half the Toss Ups to the Republicans. So based on current projections, the Republicans will win 52.5% or 54.1% of all House seats. Currently, the Democrats have 255 House seats or 58.6% of them. For Republicans to match the Democrats’ current position, Republicans would have to win 77 House seat. (Remember, all House seats are up for grabs each two-year election.)

This certainly puts the “tsunami” into perspective. While this election may be called a tsunami based on the number of seats changing hands, I would not call it an outright tsunami when Republicans are not likely to win as many seats in 2010 as Democrats did in 2008.

This tsunami vs. non-tsunami picture can be seen as either good news or bad news for Republicans (and inversely for Democrats).

From the one perspective, it would be very disappointing that the Republicans can only manage 52.5% (FiveThirtyEight) or 54.1% (RCP) of the House seats in a tsunami year. How can the Republicans “fix” Washington and the country when they cannot win the large majorities that the Democrats have been able to?

From another perspective, this may mean that the polls, RCP, and FiveThirtyEight are way off and that some predictions of even larger Republican gains will come true. The generic Congressional polls currently gives the Republicans a 7.2% advantage. However, if you eliminate the three oldest polls in the average, Republicans have a 9.8% advantage. That would imply a Republican vote total of 54.9%. In 2006, the Democrats won 53.6% of the total vote and captured 53.6% of the House seats in an election that switched party control. So, even with the benefits of incumbency, each party should receive the number of House seats equal to its vote total. Therefore, based on the generic Congressional polls, Republicans should win 54.9% of the House seats, giving them 239 seats, a 61 seat gain.

Let’s look at an alternative scenario. What is Gallup’s most Republican-favorable margin of victory plays out? If Republicans do indeed win by seventeen point, they would win 58.5% of the total vote and about the same number of House seat. That would results in 254 Republican seats, a gain of 76 seats. That would be huge, a tsunami as they are saying, but nowhere near the 100 seats Michael Barone said is possible.

Now what if the low end model plays out; the one where Republicans only win by five points? The Republicans would then capture about 228 seat, a gain of 50 seats.

So here is my official prediction for the House of Representatives:

Republicans gain 61 seats and finish with 239 seat, about 55% of the total. This is more than the 50-seat gain predicted at FiveThirtyEight and the 58-seat gain predicted by RCP, but less than some others are talking about. On the low end, I would expect Republicans to win 50 seats. So my low end projection is equal to FiveThirtyEight’s middle-of-the-road projection. On the high end, I think it unlikely that Republicans win more than 76 seats*, much less than some are saying is possible. (I will update this prediction in the comments section as new polls come in.)

* All that said, this election is probably the most difficult to model in years, possibly ever, and the polls and models they are based on are less accurate than most years. The gap between Gallup’s registered voter and likely voter (lower turnout) models is a huge 12 points. Nobody know which model, if any, is the best and therefore the range of possible results this election is huge. But lacking anything better than the current polls and models, I used those.

[LearnsFromMistakes]

I assume all these predictions are based on early January counts, and not when I go to bed on Nov 2. How many seats will the D’s regain due to recounts?

[MichaelNewton]

This prediction is based solely on the polls. Personally, I expect Republicans to do better than polling suggest, but that will be largely offset by Democratic cheating.

[DontTreadOnMe2009]

100++

[Truthsearcher]

I think the only part your analysis may have missed is that statistically speaking, the further you deviate from the 50/50 split, the higher the end result in seats won will deviate from the vote total.

To draw an extreme example, a party that gets 5 percent of the popular vote will not have have won 5% of the congressional seats, it will be lucky to have 1 seat.

A party that gets 25% of the popular vote will not win 25% of the congressional seats, they will be lucky to win 10%.

Think of it as the normal distribution curve, with the vote split being the line on the bottom and the number of seats as the area under the curve.

So while at 53/47 split you might see a seat split close to 53/47, if the split goes to 58/42 or 59-41, you will see a split in seats that is higher than 58/42.

[MichaelNewton]

Very good point. You are absolutely correct.

The question is where the tipping point lies. In 1976, the Dems got 55.5% of the vote and 66.9% of the House seats. However, the Democrats were the incumbents that year (had been since 1955) so that they had the incumbency advantage. Also, gerrymandering was more in their favor back then because the Democratic party was dominant in most of the country from 1932 to 1994, regardless of the number of Republican Presidents, which is why they had a majority in Congress most of those years.

So today, where the Democrats are the incumbents but only have been for four years, where gerrymanders has been designed to create safe seats for both Republicans and Democrats, and all polls showing Republicans getting less than 55% of the vote, I don’t expect the situation you describe.

But if the Republicans do win 55% or more of the vote (maybe even at 54%), they will likely win a disproportionate number of seats.

[Ozone34]

Thanks! I just got the Kindle version of your book for my iPhone. Looks great!

[MichaelNewton]

“Thanks! I just got the Kindle version of your book for my iPhone. Looks great!”

I hope you enjoy the book, if not the situation it presents. But hopefully we can start turning that around on November 2. Actually, we’ve been turning it around since Obama became President and the whole tea party movement began, but will we succeed? The first major indication will come in 11 days.